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Forums - Sales Discussion - Quickest game to 10 million?

c0rd on 16 October 2008
atma998 said:

Hey! wake up! GT5 cannot sell 10Mil. Even GTAIV, the most popular franchise, far more popular than GT, didn't sell 5 Mil yet. Why a game less popular can sell 2 times more??? It doesnt make sense and I think everybody who believe it will sell 10 Mil believe also PS3 will sell 100 Mil units and that won't happen. Sorry!

Uh, you do realize GTAIV is also availible on the X360, correct? If you include its numbers, it passed 10 million on its 14th week. GT5 is capable of hitting the 10 million mark. GT has always been bigger than Halo, and Halo 3 hit its old numbers without too much trouble (~8mil).

Now, is it possible to hit 10 million faster than Mario Kart Wii? Hardly. First of all, it would have to release simultaneously in all three regions, when GT never does. Secondly, the PS3's strongest region is in others - the land of legs. Take a look at the sales curve of GT4:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Others&game1=&reg2=Others&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2&reg3=Others&game3=&weeks=35

I gave it 35 weeks, which is pretty generous (Mario Kart Wii will be well over 10mil by then). By week 35, it only managed 3.2mil, less than 60% of its lifetime sales. Note that this game sold about as well as GT3 in others, so using similar numbers would be the best case for GT5. America & Japan would need to make up the other 6.8 million in 35 weeks... Assuming a generous 20mil installed base there when GT5 comes, Japan and America would need to sell to over 1/3 of the userbase in 35 weeks.

 

Anyway, in the slim chance it does pull off this miracle, I still think Wii Sports Resort is going to take the crown.



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peachbuggy on 16 October 2008

GT5 won't reach 10 mil. When it eventually comes out i seriously doubt it will be on a console with a 40 mil userbase either.



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HappySqurriel on 16 October 2008

If there is adequate supply, and a selection of games that use Wii MotionPlus, I could easily see Wii Sports: Resort selling very well and (possibly) comming close to the record ...



atma998 on 16 October 2008
c0rd said:
atma998 said:

Hey! wake up! GT5 cannot sell 10Mil. Even GTAIV, the most popular franchise, far more popular than GT, didn't sell 5 Mil yet. Why a game less popular can sell 2 times more??? It doesnt make sense and I think everybody who believe it will sell 10 Mil believe also PS3 will sell 100 Mil units and that won't happen. Sorry!

Uh, you do realize GTAIV is also availible on the X360, correct? If you include its numbers, it passed 10 million on its 14th week. GT5 is capable of hitting the 10 million mark. GT has always been bigger than Halo, and Halo 3 hit its old numbers without too much trouble (~8mil).

Now, is it possible to hit 10 million faster than Mario Kart Wii? Hardly. First of all, it would have to release simultaneously in all three regions, when GT never does. Secondly, the PS3's strongest region is in others - the land of legs. Take a look at the sales curve of GT4:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Others&game1=®2=Others&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2®3=Others&game3=&weeks=35

I gave it 35 weeks, which is pretty generous (Mario Kart Wii will be well over 10mil by then). By week 35, it only managed 3.2mil, less than 60% of its lifetime sales. Note that this game sold about as well as GT3 in others, so using similar numbers would be the best case for GT5. America & Japan would need to make up the other 6.8 million in 35 weeks... Assuming a generous 20mil installed base there when GT5 comes, Japan and America would need to sell to over 1/3 of the userbase in 35 weeks.

 

Anyway, in the slim chance it does pull off this miracle, I still think Wii Sports Resort is going to take the crown.

 

 You're right GTAIV was released on 2 consoles while GT5 will be release exclusively on a console with the lowest userbaser (PS3). Halo 3 hits the 8 Mil mark (and it's unsure about hitting the 10 Mil mark) on a console with a larger userbase than PS3. There is no chance GT5 will ever pass the 10 Mil mark.



Griffin on 16 October 2008
atma998 said:
c0rd said:
atma998 said:

Hey! wake up! GT5 cannot sell 10Mil. Even GTAIV, the most popular franchise, far more popular than GT, didn't sell 5 Mil yet. Why a game less popular can sell 2 times more??? It doesnt make sense and I think everybody who believe it will sell 10 Mil believe also PS3 will sell 100 Mil units and that won't happen. Sorry!

Uh, you do realize GTAIV is also availible on the X360, correct? If you include its numbers, it passed 10 million on its 14th week. GT5 is capable of hitting the 10 million mark. GT has always been bigger than Halo, and Halo 3 hit its old numbers without too much trouble (~8mil).

Now, is it possible to hit 10 million faster than Mario Kart Wii? Hardly. First of all, it would have to release simultaneously in all three regions, when GT never does. Secondly, the PS3's strongest region is in others - the land of legs. Take a look at the sales curve of GT4:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Others&game1=®2=Others&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2®3=Others&game3=&weeks=35

I gave it 35 weeks, which is pretty generous (Mario Kart Wii will be well over 10mil by then). By week 35, it only managed 3.2mil, less than 60% of its lifetime sales. Note that this game sold about as well as GT3 in others, so using similar numbers would be the best case for GT5. America & Japan would need to make up the other 6.8 million in 35 weeks... Assuming a generous 20mil installed base there when GT5 comes, Japan and America would need to sell to over 1/3 of the userbase in 35 weeks.

 

Anyway, in the slim chance it does pull off this miracle, I still think Wii Sports Resort is going to take the crown.

 

 You're right GTAIV was released on 2 consoles while GT5 will be release exclusively on a console with the lowest userbaser (PS3). Halo 3 hits the 8 Mil mark (and it's unsure about hitting the 10 Mil mark) on a console with a larger userbase than PS3. There is no chance GT5 will ever pass the 10 Mil mark.

Because the PS3 will have the same size userbase within two years??

 



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c0rd on 16 October 2008
atma998 said:

You're right GTAIV was released on 2 consoles while GT5 will be release exclusively on a console with the lowest userbaser (PS3). Halo 3 hits the 8 Mil mark (and it's unsure about hitting the 10 Mil mark) on a console with a larger userbase than PS3. There is no chance GT5 will ever pass the 10 Mil mark.

GTA IV released on a userbase of just over 29.5mil. Assuming GT5 releases 2010, the PS3's userbase will be bigger - I'm thinking 33mil at the very least. If it releases near the end of the year, 40mil+ is possible.



atma998 on 16 October 2008
Griffin said:
atma998 said:
c0rd said:
atma998 said:

Hey! wake up! GT5 cannot sell 10Mil. Even GTAIV, the most popular franchise, far more popular than GT, didn't sell 5 Mil yet. Why a game less popular can sell 2 times more??? It doesnt make sense and I think everybody who believe it will sell 10 Mil believe also PS3 will sell 100 Mil units and that won't happen. Sorry!

Uh, you do realize GTAIV is also availible on the X360, correct? If you include its numbers, it passed 10 million on its 14th week. GT5 is capable of hitting the 10 million mark. GT has always been bigger than Halo, and Halo 3 hit its old numbers without too much trouble (~8mil).

Now, is it possible to hit 10 million faster than Mario Kart Wii? Hardly. First of all, it would have to release simultaneously in all three regions, when GT never does. Secondly, the PS3's strongest region is in others - the land of legs. Take a look at the sales curve of GT4:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Others&game1=®2=Others&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2®3=Others&game3=&weeks=35

I gave it 35 weeks, which is pretty generous (Mario Kart Wii will be well over 10mil by then). By week 35, it only managed 3.2mil, less than 60% of its lifetime sales. Note that this game sold about as well as GT3 in others, so using similar numbers would be the best case for GT5. America & Japan would need to make up the other 6.8 million in 35 weeks... Assuming a generous 20mil installed base there when GT5 comes, Japan and America would need to sell to over 1/3 of the userbase in 35 weeks.

 

Anyway, in the slim chance it does pull off this miracle, I still think Wii Sports Resort is going to take the crown.

 

 You're right GTAIV was released on 2 consoles while GT5 will be release exclusively on a console with the lowest userbaser (PS3). Halo 3 hits the 8 Mil mark (and it's unsure about hitting the 10 Mil mark) on a console with a larger userbase than PS3. There is no chance GT5 will ever pass the 10 Mil mark.

Because the PS3 will have the same size userbase within two years??

 

No, but it won't have the combined userbase of X360 and PS3 either at the time of GTAIV release.

 



facher83 on 16 October 2008

Anyone pondered Diablo 3 or Starcraft 2?

These are mega monster releases... and with Blizzard new downloading services there may not be any sell-out issues at all.



Numbers: Checker Players > Halo Players

Checkers Age and replayability > Halo Age and replayability

Therefore, Checkers > Halo

So, Checkers is a better game than Halo.

WiiStation360 on 16 October 2008
facher83 said:
Anyone pondered Diablo 3 or Starcraft 2?

These are mega monster releases... and with Blizzard new downloading services there may not be any sell-out issues at all.

Starcraft 2 will sell much better than Diablo3, but i am not sure if either will make it to 10 million.

 



tokilamockingbrd on 16 October 2008

If GT5 has a 75% attach rate it can do it!!!!



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