Loud_Hot_White_Box said: Garcian Smith said: The next DVD-like format will be whatever comes after Blu-Ray. As of right now, Blu-Ray is the next LaserDisc/SACD/UMD.   Fanboy. BluRay has already outpaced those formats pretty clearly. MS already burned its FUD allowance by claiming earlier that Blu-Ray would be the next Betamax.  Oh, clever, they've picked another format to compare it to.  MS: you lost and cost Toshiba billions and your codecs are not in use in HD media in the living room!!!! aHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   Universal is now hard at work with the Blu-Ray transfers, which are higher quality than their earlier HD-DVD ones.  Why don't we ask f-ing Universal Pictures if Blu-Ray has a future, huh people? Blu-Ray isn't going anywhere.  10% of people on Netflix already rent Blu-Ray, sales are pretty good, and the numbers will keep increasing as standalone prices drop and more PS3s get out there.  The recession (thanks, lack-of-oversight-during-6-years-of-unified-Republican-rule) will doubtless slow adoption a bit.  Oh well.

Last I checked VC-1 was still used quite often. Granted it's not a majorty but Warner & Universal still use it almost exclusively.  Even if it was stopped tomorrow it doesn't matter, every BD player has to support the codec so MS get's a chunk of money regardless if it's actually used or not.  Same way Toshiba gets money for the Cell even though PS3 adoption was a huge part in the death of HD-DVD.  The reality is that cross business ventures are the norm between competitors when it's beneficial to them both.

OT: I don't agree with the OP. I think BD adoption is here to stay. It was one of two main reasons why I purchased my PS3 as early as I did.  At this point in time though I see Blu ray as a supplement to DVD and not as a replacement.  People always say that some new physical format will come down the pipe or DD will surplant Blu ray but I don't see that either.  If the HD picture/sound of Blu ray supposedly isn't enough why would a super-duper BD+ disc in the future be?  It's ridiculous IMO.

I think the future lies in options.  The same amount or more content will be purchased but it will come from a variety of sources.  On demand, direct download, HD & SD physical media.

Funny They didn't Mention HD-DVD. And people saying Them backing HD-DVD was a Smoke Screen is BS. It was a poor Marketing decision.

Millennium said: Honestly, I see it as more of a "next laserdisc" then "next UMD". It doesn't offer enough over the dominant format for most people to care (and for many to even perceive), and so it'll become a niche format for technophiles.

 

This.

Sounds like Microsoft is repeating popular fanboy rhetoric, making the company look foolish. (and IMO vice versa)

UMD was never meant to replace DVD, just think about it. It holds less data than DVD, thus lower quality. It's a nice format for PSP users who want to watch movies and play games on the road. But before the PSP was even released people were already watching DVDs on much larger laptop screens in better quality. In the end UMD movie sales increased the scale of UMD production, lowering production costs. So IMO well done Sony!

The Blu-Ray disc situation is totally different. The bulk of TVs sold in developed countries today are HDTVs, HDTV penetration is increasing rapidly. To get the most out of your HDTV and modern audio setups a better format is needed. Blu-Ray movies will not go away and year over year penetration will obviously continue to increase like it is of course doing today.

Blu-Ray disc adds desirable content, quality and functionality potential.

1) High quality content, taking advantage of 1080i/720p/1080p screens and audio setups.
2) Additional features and content.
3) Scratch resistant discs.

IMO Microsoft is shooting yet again in their own foot. Well, Bill Gates and other Microsoft execs when talking about technology advancements have nearly always been wrong in the past, so this fits well their track record.

MikeB said: Sounds like Microsoft is repeating popular fanboy rhetoric, making the company look foolish. (and IMO vice versa) UMD was never meant to replace DVD, just think about it. It holds less data than DVD, thus lower quality. It's a nice format for PSP users who want to watch movies and play games on the road. But before the PSP was even released people were already watching DVDs on much larger laptop screens in better quality. In the end UMD movie sales increased the scale of UMD production, lowering production costs. So IMO well done Sony! The Blu-Ray disc situation is totally different. The bulk of TVs sold in developed countries today are HDTVs, HDTV penetration is increasing rapidly. To get the most out of your HDTV and modern audio setups a better format is needed. Blu-Ray movies will not go away and year over year penetration will obviously continue to increase like it is of course doing today. Blu-Ray disc adds desirable content, quality and functionality potential. 1) High quality content, taking advantage of 1080i/720p/1080p screens and audio setups. 2) Additional features and content. 3) Scratch resistant discs. IMO Microsoft is shooting yet again in their own foot. Well, Bill Gates and other Microsoft execs when talking about technology advancements have nearly always been wrong in the past, so this fits well their track record.

I agree with most of this, but I have to wonder... how good is good enough for the average consumer?  And is everyone in the US replacing their TVs with HDTVs right now?  It's a normal upgrade path, so I would think this will be stretched out over the next 5 years.

 

This sounds a bit classless coming from the XBox Product Manager, especially on the back of what Sony's president of Worldwide Studios, Shuhei Yoshida, said recently about wanting the 360 to succeed in Japan.

Personally I hope blu-ray succeeds as I would like it to replace DVD as the dominant medium. I prefer having a physical disk rather than downloadable content. Hopefully it won't go the way of SACD, another format I wanted to see get adopted by the mainstream.

HD sets are becoming less expensive and are no longer the preserve of the very well off. With the popularity of LCD HD sets in particular, which look great with HD sources but crap with SD, I think blu-ray adoption is going to be closely linked with the sale of HD LCD sets.

@ crumas2

Blu-Ray takes full advantage of top 1080p HDTVs and supports 7.1 lossless audio. So that's enough for currently sold audio-visual setups.



Not all at once of course, there may be some black & white tellies in use somewhere. It's a gradual process.



It took DVD 6 years in the United States to overtake VHS movie rentals, so yes it will take a while for Blu-Ray as a movie format as well. But DVD has been much acclaimed for it's remarkably fast consumer uptake.

http://www.ps3fanboy.com/2008/10/10/zomg-dark-knight-blu-ray-available-for-pre-order/

it here to stay, the blur ay is getting studio support.
100% of it, UMD failed because it wasn't.

Jo21 said: http://www.ps3fanboy.com/2008/10/10/zomg-dark-knight-blu-ray-available-for-pre-order/ it here to stay, the blur ay is getting studio support. 100% of it, UMD failed because it wasn't.

UMD was never meant to replace DVD, so I don't think he should even be comparing Blu-ray to that format.

However, I had a PSP fairly early on, and the format had a LOT of studio support.  But there were two problems:

1. Most people bought a PSP for games, not movies

2. UMD movies could not initially be played through the TV (and were too low resolution for that anyway), which forced consumers to either have duplicate movie libraries or choose one format over the other.

I remember reading how the movie studios kept pulling their support, one by one, after months of UMD movies sales failed to produce any respectable volume.

 

Um... UMD had just the psp....

Blu-ray has the PS3 which is selling pretty decently now, and stand-alone players that are reaching mroe to people that don't really want a game system.

Bluray also has much more studio support that UMD has. [Since BD has nearly all, and UMD only had a few]

Bluray's are spreading faster than DVD did.
UMD.... err...