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Forums - Nintendo - Prediction: Wii will hit 17-18 million consoles sold by year's end

KruzeS on 18 July 2007
How many times must this be repeated!? Nintendo (a usually conservative company) predicted 20 million by March!!

You really think they can't produce at least that much? Or that it'll simply stop selling, even with Metroid, Paper, Galaxy, Brawl and Fit!?

No way, mark my words, no way it'll be at less than 17 milion by the end of the year (it sold 3 million from January to March this year).

That's unless you people are seriously expecting Nintendo to show up in October to say to investors "we regret to inform you that we'll be revising our forecast on the low side".

A 3 million unit clusterfuck, by some predictions around here. Get a clue, people.


Reality has a Nintendo bias.
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Truthsayer on 18 July 2007

OK. 1.5 miilion a month between now and years end will not equal 17-18 million Wii consoles, Nintendo simply can't turn them out fast enough!



Send me a message if you want to be Wii friends.

shams on 19 July 2007

Lets see... Wii will be close to 10m by the end of this month (another 2 weeks, approx 500k sold). Selling 250k/week at the moment. 4.5 weeks/month (on average):

10m +

August: 1.2m

September: 1.2m

October: 1.3m

November: 1.6m - 2.1m

December: 1.8m - 2.8m

...

Total:  10.0 + (7.1 ... 8.6) --> 17.5m - 19m WW (approx)

...

Yup, looks to me like 17m should be easily reached. If they have actually got their stockpiling & manufacturing working, I wouldn't be surprised to see 19m sold Jan 1st '08. Possibly even 20m (if Wii Fit is released this year, and enough Wii's are around).

 

 



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Final-Fan on 19 July 2007

Obviously Wii sales are completely dependent on how fast Nintendo is accelerating its production and how many Wiis are being socked away for the Christmas crunch.

No, I am not endorsing the conspiracy theories "zOMG Wiis are being stockpiled" -- but it is a simple fact that Nintendo is going to need extra Wiis for the holiday season or there will be riots in front of Gamestop. Those Wiis aren't going to magically appear, they're going to be pulled out of whatever secret bunker Nintendo has labeled "Do not open till Xmas".

Anyway:

Wii: 17-20 million, depending on the accuracy of the above paragraph.

360: 12.5-15 million, depending on whether Halo 3/Bioshock/Mass Effect actually drive 360 sales through the roof like everyone seems to think they will.

PS3: 5.5-8 million, depending on whether the price drops on the 80GB, whether people care that it lacks the Emotion Engine, and on just how much money people are willing to put under the tree.

Some people (Crono) will be incredulous that I put the roof of my PS3 prediction so high, and I'm not saying it'll necessarily get there, but if the holiday spendathon makes people more willing to spend a lot on single items then I think it definitely has a shot.

My guesses are 18.5, 13.5, and 7 million, respectively.



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Silver_Z on 19 July 2007
Soriku said:
Considering they sell 1.5 mil consoles as planned with no shortages then this will happen. Who knows? Maybe even 19 mil. 360 Will sell 12-15 mil by year's end and PS3, 5-6 mil (if they're lucky :P) They won't reach 7 mil.

Hahaha..... I believe they have 17-18 million willing buyers by end of the year, since it isn't even launch in Asia yet. Asia market for Wii is bigger than the other 2 consoles due to PIRACY! But I dun think they can sell 17-18 million consoles. Nintendo is not producing enough to reach that figures.

I think it would be 14 million consoles sold, with 4 million disappointed buyers. lol!



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tabsina on 19 July 2007
Silver_Z said:
Soriku said:
Considering they sell 1.5 mil consoles as planned with no shortages then this will happen. Who knows? Maybe even 19 mil. 360 Will sell 12-15 mil by year's end and PS3, 5-6 mil (if they're lucky :P) They won't reach 7 mil.

Hahaha..... I believe they have 17-18 million willing buyers by end of the year, since it isn't even launch in Asia yet. Asia market for Wii is bigger than the other 2 consoles due to PIRACY! But I dun think they can sell 17-18 million consoles. Nintendo is not producing enough to reach that figures.

I think it would be 14 million consoles sold, with 4 million disappointed buyers. lol!


End of July - 10mil
August - 11mil
Sept - 12mil
Oct - 13mil
Nov - 14mil
Dec - 15mil

Therefore, even if they do not increase production at all and have no stockpiling, they will easily have 14.5mil plus.. I don't know your style of posting well enough, but i hope you were joking



Magera on 19 July 2007

I was thinking, By these numbers, Nintendo could well be nearing 10 Million consoles sold ahead of the PS3 end 2007.

If this was to happen, then all of a sudden, Jan 1st 2008 the PS3 started selling at 250K a month more then the Wii worldwide... (I know, Not gonna happen)...

Then it would take the PS3 - 40 months just to break even with Nintendo Numbers (Somewhere around March 2011)... They are already ahead by 5.5 million so it'll be 22 months as it stands. (Somewhere around Feb 2009 - and that's only if the PS3 OUTSOLD the Wii 250K consoles a month starting THIS month).

Onto the prediction side of things:-

Wii: 16 - 17 Million
Xbox 360: 13 - 14 Million
PS3: 6 - 6.5 Million (as it stands) 6.5 - 7.5 million (if the price of the 80G becomes $499)



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Silver_Z on 20 July 2007
tabsina said:
Silver_Z said:
Soriku said:
Considering they sell 1.5 mil consoles as planned with no shortages then this will happen. Who knows? Maybe even 19 mil. 360 Will sell 12-15 mil by year's end and PS3, 5-6 mil (if they're lucky :P) They won't reach 7 mil.

Hahaha..... I believe they have 17-18 million willing buyers by end of the year, since it isn't even launch in Asia yet. Asia market for Wii is bigger than the other 2 consoles due to PIRACY! But I dun think they can sell 17-18 million consoles. Nintendo is not producing enough to reach that figures.

I think it would be 14 million consoles sold, with 4 million disappointed buyers. lol!


End of July - 10mil
August - 11mil
Sept - 12mil
Oct - 13mil
Nov - 14mil
Dec - 15mil

Therefore, even if they do not increase production at all and have no stockpiling, they will easily have 14.5mil plus.. I don't know your style of posting well enough, but i hope you were joking


Errmm... joking about which part? Wii being the number 1 console in Asia due to Piracy? Or 4 million disappointed buyers?



WiteoutKing on 20 July 2007

Hint: The part that was put in bold.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

KruzeS on 20 July 2007
Silver_Z said:

Errmm... joking about which part?

The fact that you're expecting Nintendo to miss their own forecasts for this fiscal year by at least 3 million units?



Reality has a Nintendo bias.