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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Wii will hit 17-18 million consoles sold by year's end

tombi123 on 18 July 2007

i dont think nintendo are producing enough to sell 17m by the end of the year. i think 15-16m.

i shall also hold you to your 5-6m ps3 prediction. you will have a nasty shock when its nearer 8m :P



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Crono on 18 July 2007

If it approaches 8 mil i'll eat crow.

I'll even add that to my sig.



Witty signature here...

Wii: 14 million by January  I sold myself short

360: 13 million by January I sold microsoft short, but not as bad as Nintendo.

PS3: 6 million by January. If it approaches 8 mil i'll eat crow  Mnn Crow is yummy.

With these results, I've determined that I suck at long term predictions, and will not long term predict anything ever again. Thus spaketh Crono.

Desroko on 18 July 2007
outlawauron said:
No way! Unless some serious production, like we haven't seen, is done; there is no way it'll get to 18 mil by 12/31.

I hold you to your 5-6 million PS3 prediction.

There is some circumstantial evidence of stockpiling. The Wii had been holding steadily in the 70K-80K range until DQS was released, when it apparently jumped past 100K. As it's generally agreed that each weekly shipment was selling out, this would indicate that Nintendo saved up for a big release.

16 million by 2008 is the low end of my projection - that's what sales would be if the Wii only maintained its 1 mil/month rate. 18 million is reasonable.



WiteoutKing on 18 July 2007

End of the year, I'll go with Nintendo at 18 million, ONLY if they can boost production for the holidays. Microsoft will be around 13 million. Sony at 7 million.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

BenKenobi88 on 18 July 2007

For some reason I still don't understand the phrase "eat crow"...
I say "eat humble pie"...



LEFT4DEAD411.COM
Bet with disolitude: Left4Dead will have a higher Metacritic rating than Project Origin, 3 months after the second game's release.  (hasn't been 3 months but it looks like I won :-p )

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BenKenobi88 on 18 July 2007

I predict Nintendo at 15 million, Microsoft at 13.5, and Sony around 7.



LEFT4DEAD411.COM
Bet with disolitude: Left4Dead will have a higher Metacritic rating than Project Origin, 3 months after the second game's release.  (hasn't been 3 months but it looks like I won :-p )

Neos on 18 July 2007
Crono said:
If it approaches 8 mil i'll eat crow.

I'll even add that to my sig.


Well, counting the holidays

 

i'm guessing it will hit 8 million 



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!

 

BenKenobi88 on 18 July 2007

Yes, the PS3 will probably see a very significant boost during the holidays, especially since the Wii can't see much of an increase, because it sells out every month of the year...and PS3 fanboys will go crazy, constantly noting the increase in sales.

The Jedis are going to feel this one...



LEFT4DEAD411.COM
Bet with disolitude: Left4Dead will have a higher Metacritic rating than Project Origin, 3 months after the second game's release.  (hasn't been 3 months but it looks like I won :-p )

MontanaHatchet on 18 July 2007

Seems I posted twice anyways. I like my other post more.



 

 

MontanaHatchet on 18 July 2007

I was going to post up something long but I met an internal servor error.

Grrrrrrrrr.......

So, my predictions for the end of 07 are:

Xbox 360: 14-14.5 million

Wii: 15-16 million

Playstation 3: 7.5-8 million

I think you all really underestimate the 360. It's sales may not be that amazing right now, but Halo 3 is a powerful game.

I think the PS3 will see consistent sales boosts with games like Heavenly Sword, Lair, and NCAA Football 08. Then, when GTA4 comes out in October, it will round off nicely in the 7 million or so sales range.

My predictions for 08 though?

The PS3 will receive many of its killer games, especially Metal Gear Solid 4 early in the year. The PS3 will catch up with the other consoles and it will grow to be a tight race in 08. I see the PS3 in the lead by 09, with the Wii's casual games continuing to sell well and the 360's killer apps from 07 continuing to sell well.

Goodness, predictions are fun.