on first thought ps2 had a 80m userbase when gta:sa came out (i think) so it might be more difficult. I think everyone that was pumped for it has already bought it. The one big problem is that wii has already outsold all its predecessors, and it's last predecessor by double, and it will be hard to get those people who are longtime fans of nintendo games because the base just isn't aware.
think about it to hit the record it will have to sell 12 or so million. that's about 2/7ths of the people with a wii.
people on the gamecube bought double dash at about a rate of 1/5.
it could be close, but unless they bundle it, or already have it bundled it might be difficult.
@fernando- wii sports is not the best selling game. it is simply the game most wii owners have.

Actually you may be right here. those games probably would not slow down the sales of mario kart. I do think that lack of games (May 2008 - present) is helping mario Kart however but it would sell very high reguardless. Only a game like Sonic racing or Kirby flying adventure could slow down the sales of Mario Kart.

@theprof00. Well I don't know about the first 12 months exactly... but the eventual sales of MK:DD are almost 1:3 with the console... and I imagine the ratio was falling in the GCs latter years.

By April Wii's userbase will be 50 million or more, 1/3rd of that is over 15 million (I'm not suggesting it will get that high, but after 1 year of sales I bet the GC version was at that ratio or higher)

I think it will be close.

imagine what the next mario kart will sell

It's funny you bring those games up - they may not end up on the Wii because of games like Mario Kart that do so well 

Look at the DS and its massive library. With all its third party support, it doesn't stop Nintendo from dominating the top 15 or so spots. Nor does it stop games like Nintendogs, MKDS, Brain Age, and NSMB selling so consistently years after they've released.

@TWRoO: I think MKWii should be closer to 10.5M by the end of the year, anyway. That means 7 weeks of ~150k sales, with Nov&Dec adding another 1.7M (210k average during holidays). From there it's an easy ~115k during the Jan-Mar period. Should be doable...

@theprof00: I guarantee you, Mario Kart Wii is not just selling to the old Nintendo audience. The Wii wheel is reeling new people in - when new people pick the Wii, what other games would they buy with the console? Besides the Wii Series, Mario Kart Wii seems like the perfect choice, a game practically anyone can enjoy.

 GTA IV actually has a shot. I wasn't counting multiplats really, but sure.

It is at 10.35M.

1.8M will probably be done by end of 08, but even if it doesn't, it has 4-5 more months (around 18 weeks) to make it.

So the real competition is GTA IV vs MKWii - which will become the fastest selling game in first 12 months.

I think its only fair to count multiplats like this as they are:

1. the exact same game

2. wii userbase is getting close to PS360 userbase

GTa4 has yet to be released in Japan, and while it wont set the world on fire there I think it will do 200-300K on both platforms. It may not be this year tho so that won't count I guess...

I agree. Double plats can be counted, but triple or more plats shouldn't be counted.

Well first of all can't include multi platform games or whatnot. Gives it an unfair advantage considering we are comparing one version of San Andreas and the only version of Mario Kart Wii. If you want to compare multi platform then make sure they are all multi platform.

Now as for this I've been saying for awhile that MK Wii is selling at unprecedented rates and only second to GTA: SA. Wonder if ya got the idea from me... hmm. Anyways one I've noticed that MK Wii has the luxury of having the title out in Japan for those 12 months while GTA: SA won't in our comparison. Now it really wouldn't make much of a difference because GTA: SA only sold 410,000 copies in Japan, but it's something to note.

Now as for being able to accomplish this well it's got a good shot. More than likely this title will hit 10 million at the end of the year. Hell might even be 10.5 million at current rates. So it's really got a good shot. I'm not going to count it out but it's going to be close.

If Wii fit had a simualtanious(if that's how it's spelled) itwould have beaten the record.
Or if you will count the first 12 months of each region for Wii Fit it'll beat the record.