Mike, need I mention the Wii was below 30k every single week last year, for the next 2 months? It's all about trending, and in 2 weeks, the Wii will most likely be selling fewer units than it is now (Famitsu says 24,000 this week for the Wii). That'd put it in the 20k territory, which makes it more probable than your analysis.

look at my chart above, last year the Wii sold under 30k 6 times and it looks like it may do that up to 11 times this year. On the week in 2008 when the Wii sold <30k, it was selling ~48K in 07. Overall, this year has been good for the Wii, but not nearly as good as 07.

Right now, it is all about X360 supply, as I expect a near sellout of whatever ships to japan on the restock date of 9/11.

I dont think it will happen, it will be close thou, Nintendo needs to attract Japanese games more, because it lost a bit of it's pace. But i dont think Xbox have a chance of beating it, of course the games are there but buyers that are possible interested in the new releases might arleady have it, it's just the question is there enough space on the market.

nope at much the ps3 and not more than 2 weeks.
japan hates the 360

what games does the wii have for it in those two months? its very different than in the west

Sense and Crazzyman...wow

Sorry, no. Wii will still be > 360 with room to spare. Though I applaud your use of actual supporting evidence. Too often people forget that.

My feelings are that it will receive a nice jump, but, not to the 30-40k levels that are required to top Wii's average week.

I would love to see that happen, but unfortunately....... I'm realistic.

Stickball:

1) One Piece Unlimited Cruise is debuting for Wii on Sept 11. Its currently in the top twenty preorders for Japan (from the same source as the preliminary data). Could do ~30k-60k week one.

2) Infinite Undiscovery preorders are ~30kish right now based on the same set of info. Tales preorders were ~65k a week before launch (which is where we are now for IU). I think IU will likely do 48k-55k week one.

3) When Tales launched, 360 had supply issues. But, if it hadn't, my theory is the roof would have been somewhere in the 30-45k range. You have to remember that people bought 360s in the weeks running up to Tales too, and as far as I'm concerned, thats the reason for the diminished supply rather than the one week speak to 24k. IU in theory will be a smaller bump because of the state of the preorders (though preorders != anything near first week sales say 30% of the time).

So, overall I'm thinking something like 23k Wii (One Piece boost of maybe 2k from previous week), and 18k 360. The price drop went into effect on what day for 360? If it was say, Sept 5, then we'd see something like 3k week ending 8/31, 9k week ending 9/7, then 18k (double) for the week ending 9/14 on the price drop + game.

come on man thats unrealistic even with the price drop. the ps3 cant outsell the wii in japan. i dont see the 360 outselling the ps3 in japan that week. it takes a real good game for the 360 to even outsell the ps3 in japan...like ToV. but besides that one week, from there on its all history man