you're making far too much of something that is far less important than you think it is and you are using examples that don't even provide any proof whatsoever.

If there is no proof that it would sell better on another system? Otherwise the example is useless, games fail all the time on many systems for many reasons.

I'm not saying you couldn't possibly find an exception, there are some exceptions out there, but they are rare. We're not talking about games that take advantage of demographics, we're talking about games that are successful because there is not very much competition on the system with less userbase. One that comes to mind is viewtiful joe on gamecube.

Companies are taking a big risk doing this. I really don't think the percentages work in the developers favor.

- You need three data points to call something a trend. You know, apples to apples types of data points.

- More meat? TOV? Oh come on. You're comparing a "Tales" game to a new RPG IP on the DS? Really?

- In the end, concerning SOFTWARE SALES (which I believe was your point, correct me if I'm wrong) the only thing that counts is SOFTWARE SALES, not userbase. Check over the financials of the aggregate of the Japanese developers and you'll find that they're most profitable on the DS.

From your original post your bottom line seems to be this:

I've never said that wasn't true. In fact I said this:

It seems, at least in spirit, that I've already agreed with your main point. I just think you need to develop the point better and back it up with a lot of hard data and good examples.

On a slight tangent, it's an interesting question of whether the PSP is really a viable and/or the best system for launching a new IP. It's a known fact that the DS is a viable platform for launching a new IP.

Installed base matters. The question is as far as console price, commercialization & on the other side of the coin the Gaming enthusiasm of consumers. You can expect the dedicated nature of the core fans and you can expect that if you play your cards right you'll gather the consumers who cannot afford console above median price and non-avid gamers or casual gamers, who will pick a console up for fun. Enthusiasm has gone down in the gaming circuit since last gen. The gaming industry has turned into a machine, so what needs to happen is for them to come back down from their corporate high horses and understand their focal demographics.  

Your first point: install base doesn't mean good sales. This is true and you provided us some decent examples.

Just below the surface: developers may be better off going with a system with a smaller install base. Possibly true, but you did not give us any example of where this was the case. Your examples could have sold better or worse on a different platform.

Just below that (and the point I think you really wanted to make): developers are not going to develop for the Wii just because it will have 50%+ market share. Of course they are not, you may rest at ease. But, more games will take advantage of the huge Wii userbase that is pretty anxious to spend money.

Yea that's how i felt when i was reading this, like he is trying to say that just because wii reaches 50% doesn't mean wii will get all the games.  Well that's pretty obvious, a lot of that has to do with demographics though.  Where are all the companies trying to put mini games on PS3?  If you break down the demographics of each system, even when wii breaks 50% it is going to be far from 50% of the demographics for the shooting genre, or the sports genre (traditional anyway).  However the wii may have an even greater percentage of the demographics for platformers, minigames, kids games, light gun games, many nostalgic games etc. 

If you look at the VGChartz numbers, you'll see that the DS has sold nearly 300 million units of software. (I must point out that cartridge = software, which you didn't seem to understand in an earlier post)

Wii has sold 155 million; more than XBox 360, in a shorter amount of time.

People buy more games for these systems. There is higher sales potential for the Wii and DS.

Many games will not sell well, and there are many reasons for that. It could be a bad game, bad marketing, niche appeal, each game has it's own factors for sales.

There were many flops on the PS2, just as there are many flops on the 360 and PS3. For every million seller on the PS2, there were many more games that didn't sell well at all.


But I DO agree somewhat with the first post, install base isn't everything. Shooters and sports will do well on X360. Party games and Nintendo games will see high sales on Wii. PS3 has big exclusives like MGS4 and GT5.

But to think that FPS games will only achieve decent sales on the 360 is silly. Not that I'm accusing anyone of that, I'm just pointing out that we will see decent FPS games on the other systems as well. EA's Madden All-Play is off to a good start on the Wii. It has the lowest sales of the 4 console versions, but it should still be a profitable game.

Which system will be best for RPGs is up in the air at the moment. That will be interesting to watch. They should each end up with a decent slice of that pie.

Tales was brought up to show that a game on a tiny system sold incredibly well considering the install base even though according to you the Japanese market is "down." I'm not buying the market is down and that's why the games I mentioned sold not so well. I think the market is just fine, but the games got overshadowed b/c of the glut of similar games on the system.

So you're saying that all games don't do well on the DS or Wii because of the larger user base.

OMG WHAT A SHOCK!!!!! AS A DELUSIONAL FANBOY I CANNOT ACCEPT THIS! THE WORLD IS GOING TO END!!!!!!

I think people have already pointed out that you can't take 2 examples and apply them to the market as a whole. As I stated, there are many factors for the success or "failure" of a game.

While large install base obviously does not guarantee high sales, a few high-profile games with poor sales is not an indication that the DS is a bad choice of platform for developers.  This can happen on ANY system for any number of reasons.