DS Games Selling Badly: Or Why Install Base isn't the End All Be All

[jman8]

fkusumot said:

jman8 said:

 Those are all possibilities. But how much data do I need before it's not "cherry-picking." I'm not about to write a thesis on this for you. "Cherry picking" or not, data is data. Sure it's not enough to prove my point unequivocally, but does that mean you should dismiss the premise completely? Does that mean I'm wrong? All I'm really trying to do is get people to re-think and reconsider some of the assumptions they've been making. I supported my points with two sales examples and an interview w/ a dev commenting on this issue. Want more meat? How about the fact that Tales of Vesperia sold 100,000 units in a week on a system that has an install base that's only 2.5% of the DS's.

- You need three data points to call something a trend. You know, apples to apples types of data points.

- More meat? TOV? Oh come on. You're comparing a "Tales" game to a new RPG IP on the DS? Really?

- In the end, concerning SOFTWARE SALES (which I believe was your point, correct me if I'm wrong) the only thing that counts is SOFTWARE SALES, not userbase. Check over the financials of the aggregate of the Japanese developers and you'll find that they're most profitable on the DS.

From your original post your bottom line seems to be this:

jman8 said:

Install base isn't everything.

I've never said that wasn't true. In fact I said this:

fkusumot said:

And yeah, big install base doesn't necessarily equal large sales.

It seems, at least in spirit, that I've already agreed with your main point. I just think you need to develop the point better and back it up with a lot of hard data and good examples.

On a slight tangent, it's an interesting question of whether the PSP is really a viable and/or the best system for launching a new IP. It's a known fact that the DS is a viable platform for launching a new IP.

Tales was brought up to show that a game on a tiny system sold incredibly well considering the install base even though according to you the Japanese market is "down." I'm not buying the market is down and that's why the games I mentioned sold not so well. I think the market is just fine, but the games got overshadowed b/c of the glut of similar games on the system.