"You could wait a further month if you'd like to see the official NPD data if you want."

The wait, Squilliam....is almost unbearable :P

That information would be very valuable if nobody believed it would. 1. If you had some information of the future this might be true. But everything you have is: 2. IF the PS3 wants to outsell the 360 it has to sell more than the 360! 3. Which has no value or information whatsoever. 4. Now you could try to provide some information about the likelyhood that this will happen. But extrapolating from the past at this point of time in the console race is bullshit. So you have nothing valuable left.   (Note: I, Steven787, added the numbers for the response)

 

So don't post in the thread.  When you post in a thread just to say that the thread is pointless than that is trolling.

1. Of course the information might be true.  Anything could happen so any range could be true.  But this is how we do projections at every management job I've ever had (minus certain order data, but considering pricing trends), so I transferred it here.

2. The PS3 doesn't want to do anything, it is a machine... That being said, I assume that you mean. "For the PS3 to sell more than..."

That's actually not what I am discussing.

I am discussing the different amounts the PS3 could sell more than the 360.  You are more than welcome to make a prediction, or agree or disagree.

3. You are right, the statements you make have logical flaws and are not honest representation of what I am saying.  That is why you cherry pick from my statements, instead of posting my complete post (or at least my complete sentence).

4.  I gave a very broad range of a realistic time frame with a very well supported track record of past sales and possible future sales rates...  At this point in the console race?  Look at last gen, the rates of the second half of year 2/3-3/4 is very relevant to how they performed the following year: almost identical.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=GC&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=XB&reg3=All&start=37143&end=37983

So if you post in this thread again, with out providing some type of evidence or accusing me of not having evidence, then you will just be proving that you are trolling my thread because you don't like the numbers.

VGChartz is a SALES tracking and discussion website.

If you don't want to discuss the topic, then don't post in here.

 

@libellule: you have made some very good posts about why you think the PS3 will do better than 40+ lead average, thank you for contributing, I just want to clear up that I am only upset with Kyros for trolling the thread with his short non-sourced no logic comments - even though, we (lib & me) disagree about my results and the validity of how I got to my range that I am using for the basis of the discussion.

@Rock_on_2008: Thank you for not attacking my, or anyone elses, comments.  We may disagree about the numbers and the power of Killzone 2 as a system seller but I appreciate your contribution and excitement about gaming and game sales.

Honestly, I don't think Christmas 09 is out of the question or never... I think they are both possible. 

@KZ2: I highly, highly doubt Jan 09 - though I would never say it was impossible either.  PS3 selling 4.5 million more in December is a very large difference for any 2nd or 3rd place console.

 

To answer my own question in my OP...

No, I don't think it will matter whether it's '09, '11, or never.  I think both will continue to turn a decent profit and still end '13 very close to each other (with in 1-10 million of each other). - That's a prediction based off of nothing(except GC v XB and current sales projections).

Darc Requiem said: libellule said: libellule said: +1 for Kyros I believe the PS3 as the most expensive console will see a big bump for Xmas sales as people like to buy expensive at the end the year. I believe BR will continue to increase his market share and increase the value of the PS3 (balancing the expensive price of the console). I believe not all the first party games will bomb as "Lair". I believe a PS3 at 300$ will appear "somewhere" in 09. MS should have dropped the price in 07.   ==> Darc Requiem, you should read the thread before posting ... I also add my sig : Brandname is very important (guess why Xbox360 is suffering in PAL/Japan...)   You are absolutely right. I must of missed that post and thus I owe you an apology. Sorry Libellule. You have already posted your reasons for your disagreement with the OP.

 

Well, in a way, you are right too : I should have posted these points at my very first post in the thread, not in the second or third.

My main point is that making an extrapolation (or prediction) is bullshit at this point in time and you want me to make one of my own? I think you still have not understood what I have said. Let's make it easier in an analogy:

You have predicted the lottery numbers of next week by making a median of the last ten lottery numbers.
I said that this is probably a stupid approach.
And you tell me I should make a prediction of my own.

Not very helpful




I am sorry but IMO copying the whole freaking post of my predecessor is a stupid thing that utterly destroys the thread creates huge redundancy and makes ithe thread unreadable. So I try to capture the key sentence of the part I am answering to instead of making a weird copy all and highlight something approach. I can assure you that copying only parts doesn't mean that I have only read/am answering to only this part of your posting. If you have any substantial hints that I misinterpreted your posting I am more than willing to hear about it. But you and everyone else PLEASE STOP COPYING THE WHOLE POST.

@Libellule

Its no big deal. I should have made sure that I read all of your posts in the thread before I made my comment. It still is ultimately my fault. Thanks for trying to take some of the blame though

Good numbers, I did similar calculations on my own but I just did rough estimates. PS3 has a good chance of catching up to 360 but by the time that happens it will be too late to see any results. Both 360 and PS3 are getting essentially equal support, the biggest games of this generation are multiplatform, even the ones that used to be exclusive (DMC, FF, GTA not sure, etc. etc. ) and most exclusives come from 1st or 2nd party developers. A few million console advantage is not going to sway developers because the userbases are so similar.

Off-topic: Kyros, if you dont like the thread feel free to ignore it, the more you post in it, the more attention the thread gets. Oh, and I think you are the last person that can talk about posting "useless" information.

I agree with you steven787, and I've always said to those who claimed that PS3 would over take 360 next year to be kidding themselves, as the only possibility would be if 360 sales were around or close to ZERO for the entire year.

I think people are failing to understand that PS3 needs to be 100,000k + average ABOVE the 360 for it to overtake it by next year, it made just 10,000k over the 360 last week, so you'd think it'd be obvious the overtaking wouldn't be for awhile but nope, they (PS3 fanboys) don't seem to notice that.

Perhaps now these crazy PS3 fanboys will understand that, whilst it'll probably overtake eventually, it won't be until after 2009. Will it matter? probably not, because the generation will be in it's final third and the difference will be so small that non-paid for exclusives will only come from loyalty as opposed to cost/sales reasons.

Kyros said: My main point is that making an extrapolation (or prediction) is bullshit at this point in time and you want me to make one of my own? I think you still have not understood what I have said. Let's make it easier in an analogy: You have predicted the lottery numbers of next week by making a median of the last ten lottery numbers. I said that this is probably a stupid approach. And you tell me I should make a prediction of my own. Not very helpful

A poor choice of analogy. Kyros, you've made a mistake here:

- Lottery numbers are completely random. Past results have no bearing on future results. Obviously a median of past lottery numbers would be pointless, as you suggested.

- But sales numbers are not completely random. Market trends can be figured out over time, not perfectly, but with a reasonable amount of accuracy. In other words, it's not exactly a coincidence that the DS and PSP have been selling at roughly the same ratio (a little over 2:1) for months and months on end. Looking at past numbers can and does serve as a good predictor of future results.

In order to make the point you've advanced in this thread, we would have to believe that console sales over the past 12 months will have absolutely, positively, without a doubt *NO* effect whatsoever on console sales in the upcoming 12 months. And that requires a level of disbelief bordering on insanity. You might as well argue that it's impossible to predict anything happening, at any point in time, with that kind of logic. Suitable for a philosopher, maybe, but useless and counterproductive in real life.

Thanks for the great post steven787. It's a shame you were attacked for it.

What certain people seem to not understand is that past results are the single best predictor of future events***. You're method is very simple, and gets us into the ballpark. This model ensures that we will not be too far off, one way or the other.

Without a terribly complex model (which would end up being filled with assumptions anyway), it is impossible to make accurate predictions. So this simple model is the best we can do.

What your results tell us, is that it is very likely that the 360 will be 4 to 5 years old, and the PS3 will be 3 to 4 years old when the PS3 passes the 360 in worldwide sales. This is late enough in the console cycle that we can call the contest between the two a tie. It does not matter. Neither console will gain or lose exclusives because of the lack of a dominant console.

This result means that it is very likely that the PS3 will only enjoy one year or so of being slightly ahead before the new "next-gen" consoles are announced.






***I recently heard a report on NPR about predicting gas prices. It turns out that the complex models some companies and analysts have developed are not nearly as good as a very simple one. What is the simple prediction that is more accurate than the complex models you ask? The price of gas one year from now will be the same as it is today.

Past results are the best predictor of the future.

KZ2 said: Ps3 in December 2008 sells worldwide 6 million consoles to X360 1 million consoles for December 2008 = 5 million gain to the Ps3 puts Ps3 in front of the X360. Gap to November should fall to 4.5 million lead to X360 over Ps3. 4.5 million - 5 million = 0.5 million lead to Ps3 over X360 by Xmas 2008.

 

Yeah right Santa is making and dropping them off if they sell 6 million...lol