HD Console sales break down for when or if the PS3 will pass the Xbox 360.

[theRepublic]

Thanks for the great post steven787. It's a shame you were attacked for it.

What certain people seem to not understand is that past results are the single best predictor of future events***. You're method is very simple, and gets us into the ballpark. This model ensures that we will not be too far off, one way or the other.

Without a terribly complex model (which would end up being filled with assumptions anyway), it is impossible to make accurate predictions. So this simple model is the best we can do.

What your results tell us, is that it is very likely that the 360 will be 4 to 5 years old, and the PS3 will be 3 to 4 years old when the PS3 passes the 360 in worldwide sales. This is late enough in the console cycle that we can call the contest between the two a tie. It does not matter. Neither console will gain or lose exclusives because of the lack of a dominant console.

This result means that it is very likely that the PS3 will only enjoy one year or so of being slightly ahead before the new "next-gen" consoles are announced.






***I recently heard a report on NPR about predicting gas prices. It turns out that the complex models some companies and analysts have developed are not nearly as good as a very simple one. What is the simple prediction that is more accurate than the complex models you ask? The price of gas one year from now will be the same as it is today.

Past results are the best predictor of the future.