HD Console sales break down for when or if the PS3 will pass the Xbox 360.

[Sullla]

Kyros said:

My main point is that making an extrapolation (or prediction) is bullshit at this point in time and you want me to make one of my own? I think you still have not understood what I have said. Let's make it easier in an analogy:

You have predicted the lottery numbers of next week by making a median of the last ten lottery numbers.
I said that this is probably a stupid approach.
And you tell me I should make a prediction of my own.

Not very helpful

A poor choice of analogy. Kyros, you've made a mistake here:

- Lottery numbers are completely random. Past results have no bearing on future results. Obviously a median of past lottery numbers would be pointless, as you suggested.

- But sales numbers are not completely random. Market trends can be figured out over time, not perfectly, but with a reasonable amount of accuracy. In other words, it's not exactly a coincidence that the DS and PSP have been selling at roughly the same ratio (a little over 2:1) for months and months on end. Looking at past numbers can and does serve as a good predictor of future results.

In order to make the point you've advanced in this thread, we would have to believe that console sales over the past 12 months will have absolutely, positively, without a doubt *NO* effect whatsoever on console sales in the upcoming 12 months. And that requires a level of disbelief bordering on insanity. You might as well argue that it's impossible to predict anything happening, at any point in time, with that kind of logic. Suitable for a philosopher, maybe, but useless and counterproductive in real life.