The real test for all 3 is going to be in the next 2 years and boy is it going to be interesting!

Can the Wii hang in there?

Are M$ sales in japan and the world going to hold up when the PS3 finally gains all these illusive must have exclusives?

Many interesting events to come, plus what will M$ and Nintendo do next gen?

We all know Ninty does what they want and for the No:1 reason too, profits. So, they are content to let M$ and SONY battle it out with less profits in HD. But, if M$ releases another platform early will it work in there favor again?

Going to be fun to watch the PS3 to finally battle with the 360 with a strong, if not stronger line up in these comming rounds as well. 1 Thing is for sure though, and Nintendo has proven it, that anything can happen.

... wat?

If X360 doubles the sales of the original XBox it would of achieved well in Japan. MS would not abandon the Japan market because it is incredibly hard to break into and there are lots of Japanese developers who make games for X360 and they have invested lots of money in Japan.

The Wii is selling incredibly well in Japan and is the console of choice this generation replacing the PS2 for top selling console in Japan.

The PS3 is selling lower than expected in Japan.

Sony still has many secrets up it's sleeve.

not really, they have FFXIII.
they will track alot better than the gamecube

First of all no matter how se spin it MS is doing terrible. There is no way that anyone would be OK with those numbers except if we are talking about the Gizmondo. Sony could easily do over 10 million with the PS3 but at this point the PSP is their main Japanese weapon and in worst case it will reazch 16 million. Combine that with 10 million PS3 sales and they are still in a great position. Nintendo saw a hige boom so its great for them but it wont be able to get a PS2 to GC difference so it will not have a similar dominative position as the PS2...

The market is not only hardware. Worse, the market is more about software than hardware.

At least, software shows the big picture, even if hardware can help.

And software shows that PSP is irrelevant in Japan, compared to the DS, despite PSP having potential with its hardware sales.

And I doubt XB360 can reach 1.5 M. I even doubt it can reach 1M. That is, in the same span of time as the XBox, which was 4 years IIRC. In 4 years on the market, I doubt the XB360 will even double what XBox did. If it lasts longer, it can reach 1M of course, but 1.5M, I doubt that. Also, given that XB360 reached its current state by having huge losses, I don't think that's a sustainable business model. PS3 can't blame anyone, as they don't cater to the japanese market at all with 1st party games.

Software also shows that the HD consoles are irrelevant too in Japan BTW. That is, if you think the GC was irrelevant (it saw huge spikes of software sales with its blockbusters too), both HD consoles are irrelevant too this gen.

We will see in the next few months, but I think MS can get at least 1.5 mil. this generation. MS would probably be satisfied if they ended this generation selling as well as a "respectably losing" console, aka N64/GC/PS3. If they keep announcing new jRPGs, they could probably do 8k a week. They are getting into that region selling 5k/week with no big releases. At 2k or less, that's when the Japanese consider it as a big joke like the Jaguar or Original Xbox.

The PS3 is doing about what the Gamecube did. The one big difference, though, is that the Gamecube was $150 most of the time while the PS3 is $400. Even though the DS and PSP are in competition with one another, there are enough differentiating features between the two that both can do decently. Once Sony made the PSP slimmer and more inline of the desires of the Japanese consumer, h/w sales skyrocket. Slimline + FF13 + $300 for the PS3, and I think it can do 20-30k per week, if Sony first party can release some more jRPGs. 6 - 8m is my expectation for the PS3 at the end.

The Wii is doing well and I expect around 20m-25m, like the PS2.

itll be interesting to see the holiday season as animal crossing is quite popular over there