Please. No way has it been decided. No one knows how this new gamer demographic Nintendo is creating is going to turn out; how big it will become and how many games they will buy. No one knows how well the PS3 will sell once it's $400 and has MGS4 and FFXIII. No one knows if the 360 can finally start attracting some casual gamers down the road like the original X-Box failed miserably at. Probably in Japan the Wii>PS3>360 order has been set in stone, okay, but even then we don't know exactly what kind of ratio it will end as. Making predictions is one thing. Being arrogent and thinking you have the crystal ball that tells how it all comes out it quite something else.

To be fair, no one ever got a good discussion going with heavily qualified uncertainties. If you're going to have the balls to make a prediction, may as well make it a ballsy one.

I agree with most of your points, but just to comment on your last 2:

1) Just speaking for Nintendo franchises, Zelda and Metroid do not have "kiddie stuff" stigma. On the 3rd party front, Manhunt 2, SoulCaliber Legends,  and Resident Evil UC hardly have a kiddie taint, and let's not forget the sports titles. Odds are we'll be seeing a lot more stuff that's "non-kiddie" so long as the Wii continues to sell. Of course, I'm not entirely sure the "stigma" is what it's been made out to be, given the success of WiiSports, LEGO Star Wars, and the ongoing juggernaut that is Mario.

2) The HD impact will conveniently be at the time when the console is ending its life and we'll be getting the next console, so it's impact is likely to be marginal.

I'm still not convinced that the Wii can sell anything close to 120 million (unless the overall gaming market expands tremendously), but I don't believe the 360 or PS3 will either. I expect final numbers to be much closer to each other.

Damn straight.

Those who predict with the "no one knows" mentality may as well not predict or offer any insight at all.

In my opinion it's the cowardly way of viewing the market. People that don't take a stand even in clearcut observations don't have any guts and are afraid of putting themselves out there to have the chance to be known as wrong.

"They all will win" "We can't know" "Wait until such and such time" "The market is big enough to handle all three competitors"

Cowards.

No they WON'T all win. We CAN know. The time is NOW. The market IS NOT big enough to handle competitors such as these.

Observe, read the data, check your facts, reference history, use your logic, scenario the futures, and make your prediction. Simple as that.

Oh and have the balls to announce it and stick by it without changing with whichever way the wind blows. And do it ESPECIALLY when the prediction is unpopular. The longer beforehand the better. Just make sure you back it up with a logical reasonable argument.

That's how business is done.

John Lucas 

Thanks for letting us know how the world works, oh sage of VGChartz.

*sigh*

When was the last time you saw a "dead heat" video game generation?

Holy crap, 240 Million+??? Looks like I need to get into the minigame business! I just need to develop a cheap game that will appeal to one percent of Wii owners and I'll be rich. (Not a jab at the Wii, nor the Wii consumer)

They're gonna sell more Wii's than Xboxes, Gamecubes, and PS2's combined? While still having to compete with the 360, PS3 and even the PS2 for some time more?

If you are right, then kudos to you sir. But this number is unfathomable to me.

This thread is invincible. Hahaha...

Unfathomable, yes. But definite? Most certainly.

Start your game labs and make some money, goodridd. That 1% will make you some good coin. With that special Nintendo sound effect to add. *BA-CLINNNG!*

Oh and Happy 4th, my fellow Americaners. 

John Lucas

ahhh, johnlucas.  I have missed you.  You make the least sense of anyone on the forum!

"THE SURE 

Wii will catch the worldwide sales of XBox 360 within the month of July (July 1 to July 31)

and THE LONGSHOT

Wii will catch the American continents sales (North and South America) of XBox 360 within the summer (ending officially September 22) preferrably within the month of July (July 1 to July 31)"

Both wrong, the Wii can not make up over 1 million in a month, and it needs to make up 1.28.   In the US, the Wii is halfway to the 360 numbers but with less than 3 months to go it's not going to be close to happening.

At least we'll know you are wrong on those soon.  The rest of your wrong predictions will be proven in time.

Here, take this dagger and keep twisting it.

Anyway, the "The Sure" bet is probably not all that far off. I would have wagered mid-September before but it's looking like early August at this point. I would not be surprised if that first bet actually went through.