DonWii said: @martijnve, I will quote myself. Why not? IF BR were the way of the future, and the PS3 is the cheapest BR player in the market,

   

PS3 hasnt been the cheapest BR player on the market for about 4 to 5 weeks now. They price dropped one of their BR layers to $499 already. That ship has sailed. The standalones are going to be cheaper, you can count on that due to the HD in the PS3 being such a fixed cost alone in itself.

Wii's easy: fiscal year 2007. Nintendo projected 20million sold, but they're conservative and it's not the production limit.

DonWii said: @martijnve, I will quote myself. Why not? IF BR were the way of the future, and the PS3 is the cheapest BR player in the market, then people would buy the PS3 for their high-def viewing. Granted, it may take a few more years for people to start upgrading to BR, but, again, IF PS3 were the cheapest BR player, then PS3 sales would be high, because it would be the more economical BR player in the market. And, as a bonus, it doubles as a computer. Oh, and plays games.

http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-BD-P1000-Blu-Ray-Disc-Player/dp/B000F99FDE/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2/103-1994450-0223805?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1182233076&sr=1-2

Blue Ray player, $508.... Its on sale, but I'm pretty sure there will be some players under $500 before christmas.

Also, it's pretty impossible for the PS3 to be the cheapest Blu-ray player. It has all that extra crap that normal players don't need (wi-fi, Cell processor, etc) which really boosts up the price. Its like the PS2. Sure DVD players used to cost the same as a PS2, but now PS2 is $129 and DVD players are $29.

OriGin said: I'm yet to make up my mind on the 360 beating the original... we'll see how the sales levels go after Halo 3 and a price drop comes... but I'm not sure if it will surpass that number by a huge amount, I think it's losing steam around the world with USA being the only real carrying force.

I think the 360 will beat the original.  Why?  Well the largest number of Xboxes were sold at $200 or below (something like 80% of them).  Since the 360 has already sold 10 million at it's highest price point (at double the $200 price) it's highly likely that a larger percentage of them will be sold at and below $200...  Add to that the fact that as the 360's library grows each year it can become more attractive to potential buyers.

doesn't anyone understand the word IF anymore?

PS3owner said: I thought the gamecube sold more WW than the xbox, since the xbox has been dead for over 1 year now and the GC still selling.

With some rounding; I believe the X-Box sold about 24 million before Microsoft pulled the plug.  The GC has sold about 21-22 million.  You can still find a GC in a few places, but only a few thousand are sold weekly.  Nintendo has stopped production of the GC, so soon enough a person will not be able to walk into a store and find one.  My guess is that by the end of the year they will be nearly a sold.  At only a few thousand a week, the GC cannot sell over 2 million by then.  The chart here seems off, so I don't know the exact numbers sold.

 

TheSource said: heh the Royals winning the pennant would take a miracle.. Lucas believe it or not I would agree with you on both if not for the potential of a 360 price drop boosting 360 alot, and if not for Nintendo's limited production capacity & underestimation of Wii demand. Still, I'd like to see how you change your predictions if Wii doesn't doesn't catch Xbox  360 in the next 7 weeks (vgcharts data is through June 10 - 7 weeks from now would be July 29).  I'd be pleasently surprised if you were right though, since I do have a bit of money invested in Nintendo.

I'm wondering how big the impact of a 360 pricedrop will be... there are two scenarios I think:

1. It has a big impact and a lot of former ps2 owners are buying it, the "former casuals" as they were entitled in another thread.

2. It has very low impact because the 360 is still more expensive than the Wii, and the "former casuals are going to get a Wii instead of a 360 while the people who really wanted a 360 already own one.

However, once the two consoles are less than a hundred dollar away from each other, they are really getting in concurrence and I am interested who'll be more succesfull in convincing the audience.

Wii>GC April '08

360>Xbox Dec '08

PS3>PS2 When Hell Freezes Over