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HappySqurriel said:
cookingyourmama said:
FishyJoe said:

1. Back to the topic at hand, I think it's rather ridiculous to use NPD mish moshed figures to calcluate LTD Americas sales for the Wii when we have Nintendo's own shipment figures.

2. We all know that the inventory levels for the Americas on the Wii is very, very low. So it's logical that Nintendo's shipment numbers will be very close to the consumer numbers in the Americas.

So what does that leave us? Well you can believe the estimated NPD mishmosh presented above. Or you can believe VGC which is very close to Nintendo's shipment numbers.

It's you're choice. I'll side on precise data rather than an amalgam of estimates.

I'm not saying NPD is wrong. I'm saying the way people are using NPD to calculate LTD sales for the Americas is wrong.

 

1. Could you post conclusive proof that since the start of this console generation npd have infact gone back and changed their numbers.

2. Can you post conclusive proof that in south america the wii's inventory levels are low. Also can you post some proof of how many wii's are in transit at any one time in the america's.

I can't comment on #1 except to say that all tracking firms in all industries adjust their numbers after the fact as more accurate numbers (say Nintendo's financial report) come in; they do this so that they can have the most up to date and accurate totals, and as a way to fix their estimates and improve their forecasting.

As for #2, the truth is that Nintendo is not going to be flooding the market of developing nations with Millions of systems because any surplus inventory will (potentially) remain unsold or be stolen. For the whole of Latin America I would be surprised to hear of more than 100,000 Wii systems that were shipped but unsold.

 

So you don't have actual proof that this generations numbers have been changed. Can you atleast prove that at some point npd have gone back and changed any of their numbers instead of just saying 'well i heard this'?

Like i posted above it's not millions of wii's it's 750,000~ and yet again your answer to the second point is you don't know and are just guessing.



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@ psycho: "NPD is only USA, not America.  The continent doesn't belong to the US citizens ;)  I'M from Canada and I'm as American as you are:D  In fact, in french, US citizen should be called "États-Uniens"....................it's really ugly, but it is the good name :D"

 

In the US and abroad, when most people say "America" in referring to a place, most speakers and listeners understand it to mean the US.  People say "the Americas" if they mean the whole hemisphere taken together, or "North America" or "South America" if they mean the continents. "America" just IS shorthand for the US of America.



cookingyourmama said: 

So you don't have actual proof that this generations numbers have been changed. Can you atleast prove that at some point npd have gone back and changed any of their numbers instead of just saying 'well i heard this'?

Like i posted above it's not millions of wii's it's 750,000~ and yet again your answer to the second point is you don't know and are just guessing.

So can you demonstrate that NPD doesn't follow the practice of adjusting their numbers as more accurate data comes in, which is common for all tracking firms accross all industries?

If they don't I wonder why anyone would actually pay to see their numbers ... over time the inconsistency and errors in their dataset would be (fairly) massive, their ability to accurately estimate monthly sales numbers would be reduced, and their forecasts would be off by millions of units. This is why you commonly see news releases when the government adjusts the numbers for jobs and inflation as more data comes in. Personally, if I was a CEO and was dealing with a tracking company that did not even attempt to have the most accurate and up-to-date numbers on a monthly basis I wouldn't pay the thousands of dollars to see their report.



This is What I have. I hope it helps. This is from USA:

Xbox360 Wii PS3
Nov 326,000
Dec 281,000
Jan 249,000
Feb 161,000
Mar 192,000
Apr 295,000
May 221,000
Jun 277,000
Jul 206,000
Aug 205,000
Sep 260,000
Oct 218,000
Nov 511,000 476,000 197,000
Dec 1,100,000 604,200 490,700
Jan 293,774 435,503 243,554
Feb 228,225 335,324 127,321
Mar 199,000 259,000 130,000
Apr 174,000 360,000 82,000
May 155,000 338,000 81,000
Jun 198,400 381,800 98,500
Jul 169,000 425,000 158,000
Aug 276,700 403,600 130,600
Sep 527,800 501,000 119,000
Oct 366,000 519,000 121,000
Nov 770,000 981,000 466,000
Dec 1,260,000 1,350,000 797,600
Jan 230,000 274,000 269,000
Feb 254,600 432,000 280,800
Mar 262,000 721,000 257,000
Apr 188,000 714,200 187,100
May 186,600 675,100 208,700



cookingyourmama said:
 

1. Their was no damage control to be made in the mgs4 thread, just trolls bashing an AAA game (that has sold several million in software and atleast 200,000 in hardware) because it was released on a console they don't like .

2. Their was no conclusive proof that showed the numbers i posted were wrong, it's was just a bunch of vague guesses with nothing to back them up so how can i disprove what is not proven in the first place?

a. Please post conclusive proof that in the rest of america (a.k.a. not usa or canada) that both the wii and xbox360 sell significantly more consoles than the ps3 does, or is that just wishfull thinking by you and you pulled it out of your a**?

b. Automatically saying one consoles sales = it's shipped figure when you don't know how many consoles are in transit and how many are sat on store shelves is incredibly dumb and ignorant. The wii isn't sold out in europe or japan so assuming all the other parts that make up america apart from the usa and canada are infact sold out is dumb.

3. If their was even the slightest doubt that you are acting like a massive fanboy and anything you say should be laughed at and ignored then that last shred of hope has been taken away by your stupid statement right their.

4. I've already shown why that logic is flawed and you're coming out with yet more fanboy statements as well, the only 'damage control' i see right now is from you.

1. You're biased. MGS4's hardware selling failure was marginalized by bashing vgchartz and Nintendo. You hate nintendo and love sony. That is the real reason you even post this stuff.

2. There was no conclusive proof to show the numbers you posted were right.

a. You don't think the Wii sells more consoles than the PS3 in the americas?

b. For the Wii, shipped = sold. Newsflash.

3. It's "right there" not "right their" and while we're both fanboys here, I admit it. You simply spout false alligations towards VGChartz when it suits you. MGS4's failure and the people laughing about it got you angry, so you were gonna do something to silence them, by flaming the site, and posting NPD numbers to show us we didn't know what the hell we were talking about, and how MGS4 really sold a lot of hardware. No, you're not a fanboy at all.

4. You mean that I've posted "damage control" for VGChartz? You are saying that I've came up with excuses for VGChartz failing? I shouldn't have to. You should have just been banned. However, again, your logic is flawed, and your "responses" dont' explain anything except the fact that I'm a fanboy. However many times you've been told, and despite the obvious inconsistancies from your comparison between NPD and VGChartz, you refuse to even acknowledge they exist, instead resorting to personal attacks. This is the second post you've done it in.

 

Maybe if you just admit to me that the Wii largely beating the PS3 in all territories, I'll leave you alone, so you can get back to your trolling, lies, assumptions, and half-truths. Otherwise, you, like every other misinformed post on this forum, is stuck with Zenfoldor busting you out.

So, just fyi, if NPD and VGChartz American sales matched up, someone would be wrong, because VGChartz covers more than US and Canada. Also, VGChartz data matches up with Wii shipped info extrapolation for America, where the Wii is still supply constrained. Your assumptions end here. Deny those facts so you can get corrected, or stop posting personal flames towards me, because you lack the fortitude to deny them outright. The truth is, you can't deny them, and if they are true, your case loses all credibility, now doesnt' it?

 

Wanna try answering my questions?



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

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FishyJoe said:
cookingyourmama said:

I posted this in another thread not so long ago:

 

Their is a big difference between vgchartz american numbers and npd's for the wii and 360 but not for the ps3. Now i'm not saying who is right and who is wrong i'm just stating the facts that the two sets of numbers are very different.

As of the end of may 2008 npd total ltd's are this:

PS3 - 4,450,000
Wii - 10,180,000
360 - 10,270,000

When you add in canada's numbers which is a combination of reported numbers and % estimates based on previous american numbers compared to the same month of canadian numbers you get:

PS3 - 4,911,806
Wii - 11,121,396
360 - 11,111,757

Now comparing that to vgchartz numbers for the same time you get:

npd+canada 4,911,806 - vgc 4,943,560 - +31,754
npd+canada 11,121,396 - vgc 11,891,587 - +770,191
npd+canada 11,111,757 - vgc 11,599,497 - +487,740

The ps3 numbers are almost identical with vgchartz being +31,754 higher

The wii ltd number is vastly above npd's ltd number at +770,191 higher. Anybody who thinks being over three quaters of a million isn't a significantly higher number needs their head checked.

The 360's number is again well above npd's ltd number at +487,740 higher. That's almost half a million.

Now if all 3 consoles were roughly the same when it came to being higher or lower to npd's numbers i wouldn't say anything but the fact their is such a huge difference is something that can't be ignored.

 

So if you take your value for America's LTD sales based on NPD at the end of may for the Wii:

11,121,396

Subtract May and April:

April: 714k
May: 675k

Subtract a 10% each month for Canada.

(714k + 675k)*.1 = 138k

That means that Amercas sales based on your calcluations for the end of March is at:

9.6 million

Do you really think there were 1 million excess Wii's either on store shelves or in shipment at the end of March in the Americas. Because that's what your analysis amounts to.

 

Well for starters you're just concentrating on the wii, who's to say that some how the wii numbers are right but the 360 or ps3 numbers are wrong. Who's to say that the 1 million difference isn't a combination of wii's sold in south america, wii's in transit and wii's on store shelves?

Can you explain the ps3 numbers where aparantly the ps3 has sold next to nothing in south america.



HappySqurriel said:
cookingyourmama said:

So you don't have actual proof that this generations numbers have been changed. Can you atleast prove that at some point npd have gone back and changed any of their numbers instead of just saying 'well i heard this'?

Like i posted above it's not millions of wii's it's 750,000~ and yet again your answer to the second point is you don't know and are just guessing.

So can you demonstrate that NPD doesn't follow the practice of adjusting their numbers as more accurate data comes in, which is common for all tracking firms accross all industries?

If they don't I wonder why anyone would actually pay to see their numbers ... over time the inconsistency and errors in their dataset would be (fairly) massive, their ability to accurately estimate monthly sales numbers would be reduced, and their forecasts would be off by millions of units. This is why you commonly see news releases when the government adjusts the numbers for jobs and inflation as more data comes in. Personally, if I was a CEO and was dealing with a tracking company that did not even attempt to have the most accurate and up-to-date numbers on a monthly basis I wouldn't pay the thousands of dollars to see their report.

So you don't have any proof you're just guessing. And if any adjustments did take place you have no idea what they were and are just guessing again.

 



cookingyourmama said:
FishyJoe said:
cookingyourmama said:

I posted this in another thread not so long ago:

 

Their is a big difference between vgchartz american numbers and npd's for the wii and 360 but not for the ps3. Now i'm not saying who is right and who is wrong i'm just stating the facts that the two sets of numbers are very different.

As of the end of may 2008 npd total ltd's are this:

PS3 - 4,450,000
Wii - 10,180,000
360 - 10,270,000

When you add in canada's numbers which is a combination of reported numbers and % estimates based on previous american numbers compared to the same month of canadian numbers you get:

PS3 - 4,911,806
Wii - 11,121,396
360 - 11,111,757

Now comparing that to vgchartz numbers for the same time you get:

npd+canada 4,911,806 - vgc 4,943,560 - +31,754
npd+canada 11,121,396 - vgc 11,891,587 - +770,191
npd+canada 11,111,757 - vgc 11,599,497 - +487,740

The ps3 numbers are almost identical with vgchartz being +31,754 higher

The wii ltd number is vastly above npd's ltd number at +770,191 higher. Anybody who thinks being over three quaters of a million isn't a significantly higher number needs their head checked.

The 360's number is again well above npd's ltd number at +487,740 higher. That's almost half a million.

Now if all 3 consoles were roughly the same when it came to being higher or lower to npd's numbers i wouldn't say anything but the fact their is such a huge difference is something that can't be ignored.

 

So if you take your value for America's LTD sales based on NPD at the end of may for the Wii:

11,121,396

Subtract May and April:

April: 714k
May: 675k

Subtract a 10% each month for Canada.

(714k + 675k)*.1 = 138k

That means that Amercas sales based on your calcluations for the end of March is at:

9.6 million

Do you really think there were 1 million excess Wii's either on store shelves or in shipment at the end of March in the Americas. Because that's what your analysis amounts to.

 

Well for starters you're just concentrating on the wii, who's to say that some how the wii numbers are right but the 360 or ps3 numbers are wrong. Who's to say that the 1 million difference isn't a combination of wii's sold in south america, wii's in transit and wii's on store shelves?

Can you explain the ps3 numbers where aparantly the ps3 has sold next to nothing in south america.

So in other words, after Fishy's post, you now assume the Wii numbers are right, or at least you can't refute them.

 



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

cookingyourmama said:

Well for starters you're just concentrating on the wii, who's to say that some how the wii numbers are right but the 360 or ps3 numbers are wrong. Who's to say that the 1 million difference isn't a combination of wii's sold in south america, wii's in transit and wii's on store shelves?

Can you explain the ps3 numbers where aparantly the ps3 has sold next to nothing in south america.

Expensive + Lack of personal piracy + Lack of Comercial piracy = poor sales in developing nations

There are many people (who I agree with) who say that music labels, movie studios, and game developers should start selling their content in developing nations at slightly higher than the cost to print the discs in order to create a legitimate market (and therefore kill the pirates). Currently, no company has taken this approach so you have the option of buying a modded system (and burning your own games), or buying stamped games for (less than) $5 ... Being that neither option works because of Blu-Ray who is going to buy a system where the games are (at least) 12 times as expensive as the competition?

 



cookingyourmama said:
HappySqurriel said:
cookingyourmama said:

So you don't have actual proof that this generations numbers have been changed. Can you atleast prove that at some point npd have gone back and changed any of their numbers instead of just saying 'well i heard this'?

Like i posted above it's not millions of wii's it's 750,000~ and yet again your answer to the second point is you don't know and are just guessing.

So can you demonstrate that NPD doesn't follow the practice of adjusting their numbers as more accurate data comes in, which is common for all tracking firms accross all industries?

If they don't I wonder why anyone would actually pay to see their numbers ... over time the inconsistency and errors in their dataset would be (fairly) massive, their ability to accurately estimate monthly sales numbers would be reduced, and their forecasts would be off by millions of units. This is why you commonly see news releases when the government adjusts the numbers for jobs and inflation as more data comes in. Personally, if I was a CEO and was dealing with a tracking company that did not even attempt to have the most accurate and up-to-date numbers on a monthly basis I wouldn't pay the thousands of dollars to see their report.

So you don't have any proof you're just guessing. And if any adjustments did take place you have no idea what they were and are just guessing again.

 

He probably just knows the only reason you're taking this stance is because you want the PS3 to have sold more than VGChartz says that is has, so in all likelyhood, no matter how much "evidence" you present, if you were actually correct, it would be luck.



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.