ehh might do 500k overall in japan.

I think Japanese gamers will be much more generous for this title...

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=3031&start=0#end

How about because last gen Ridge Racer was also a million seller. Did you just forget about that? Yet how did it do on the PS3? Not even close to a million. VF last gen did over a million easy. How about the PS3 version? Not even 100k.

You people need to stop thinking that success last gen translates to success this gen. And you damn sure need to stop trying to merge handhelds and consoles. Who cares what it sold on PSP? BBA sold millions on DS and CRAP on the Wii. And Monster Hunters sold mediocre as hell on PS1 and PS2 but exploded on PSP. 

But hell, you can keep on living in LALA land, come July, Im sure these guys will be happy to throw these quotes right back into your face. So keep on quoting those useless PS2 sales. They meant nothing for VF and RR and they wont mean anything here either. 

If you think this game will flop like RR7 or VF5 I think you should wake up. Or maybe not - you will feel better with your own version. At least utill July 26.

I think to sell 1 million in Japan alone it really needs some nice legs, or an insane fanbase. I would say somewhere around 300k and 500k would be good. Now this numbers comes from some small assumptions:

1. PS3 has when hot shot golf is released sold 1 million units in Japan.
2. Hot Shot Golf will move around 200k PS3, might be a little bit low but I think Gundam moved less than that
3. Somewhere between 25-40% attach ratio

(1.2 millions x 0.25 to 0.4 ~ 300 to 500k)

So defending my assumptions:

1. Should be a no brainer almost there now and selling 10k a week should push it somewhere around there.
2. This is the real hard one to explain, but I do think 200k is a maximum, not because it is a bad game or that the Japan crowd isn't liking it. It is simply because it is a little bit on its own for the casual crowd, sony would need one more game to come out during this time. (of course if I am wrong here I will of course confess this)
3. More or less taken from some of the great selling game like Brain Training or NSMB on the DS. Could of course take the extreme Wii Sport attach ratio which would give higer sales ratio.

Thats all folks...

 Oh dominance rescheduled again? Damn...

I've read the first couple responses, and I've already seen people state this, but I thought it could use re-emphasis.

To sell one million copies, this game would need to sell 106 percent of the current userbase. Most games shine if they hit 15 percent.

Or put differently, the previous versions of the Hot Shots series sold to 5-8 percent of the userbase in Japan. That would currently mean 47,000 to 75,200 copies of this game sold.

Now, those estimates are probably low for a variety of reasons (Which would require their own thread), but not so low that a number above 250,000 units is likely or even plausible.

Edit: Also, this is yet another game with lense bloom, to go along with Haze and several others. It's like the second coming of Turok-esque fog.  

It would more likely make the number of PS3 sold in Japan hit a million.

WOW that first pic looks like a dude in real life wearing a suit!

It's not about dominance but about descent sale. This game alone will not win Japan. No game is able to do this but with growing library of various titles something will change. This is a rock solid casual game with great multiplayer mode. It will sell itself and PS3.