Hot Shots Golf 5 looks stunning - a million seller on PS3 in Japan?

[robjoh]

I think to sell 1 million in Japan alone it really needs some nice legs, or an insane fanbase. I would say somewhere around 300k and 500k would be good. Now this numbers comes from some small assumptions:

1. PS3 has when hot shot golf is released sold 1 million units in Japan.
2. Hot Shot Golf will move around 200k PS3, might be a little bit low but I think Gundam moved less than that
3. Somewhere between 25-40% attach ratio

(1.2 millions x 0.25 to 0.4 ~ 300 to 500k)

So defending my assumptions:

1. Should be a no brainer almost there now and selling 10k a week should push it somewhere around there.
2. This is the real hard one to explain, but I do think 200k is a maximum, not because it is a bad game or that the Japan crowd isn't liking it. It is simply because it is a little bit on its own for the casual crowd, sony would need one more game to come out during this time. (of course if I am wrong here I will of course confess this)
3. More or less taken from some of the great selling game like Brain Training or NSMB on the DS. Could of course take the extreme Wii Sport attach ratio which would give higer sales ratio.

Thats all folks...