True....

Thats what happens when you've sold under 1million in that region. A 20% attach rate is very good.

Well, the previous iterations sold to around 5-8% of Sony's Japan user base. At that rate it would seem breaking 100k would be a stretch in Japan. No one of course knows how well it will sell over time but I think we can say it has a couple reasons it may sell better and a couple reasons it may sell worse than its older versions.

PRO
It will be one of the few great games on the PS3.
To the extent the PS3 is selling largely to hard core Sony fanboys they could go the Nintendo fanboy route and buy up every 1st party game simply to support their console in its darkest hour.
There is a question as to how many PS2's were replacement, or same household systems. Even if it's something like 33% then the true attach rate would be 7.5-12%.

CON
Software attach rates in Japan have thus far been terrible for the PS3.
The PS2 dominated the casual gamer market, with so few casual gamers buying PS3's it should especially limit a casual game's sales.
The Japanese may be golf crazy, but they are certainly Wii crazy and after playing Wii Sports Golf how many Japanese will be waiting to buy Mario Golf on a system they already own vs. how many will want to shell out $600+ for an old style golf game?

Those are a few of the factors that will influence Hot Shots Golf sales. No one knows which will prove the most decisive but my own guess is for around a 8-10% attach rate (i.e. the factors will largely cancel out). Given that PS3 sales will probably be around 2 million by the time Hot Shots Golf sales die off I would say sales of 150-200k should be expected.  The days of any decent game on a Sony system selling 1million+ in a single region are over.

Why did they completely kill the art style for the series? Sheesh.

Yeah, anime style and photo realism don't look to good. Choose one or the other.

1 mill worldwide, not way in japan alone.

Well maybe if it gets some big boost with xmas sales.

No way WW either.  Look at the figures above, the previous versions of Hot Shots Golf didn't even have a 1% attach rate outside of Japan.  80% of PS2's were sold outside of Japan but only 30% of HSG games were.  Using similar factors mentioned in my previous post I would think 2-3% would be the most this game can get.  Being generous and expecting say 5 million non Japan PS3's by the time this game dies off would mean 100-150k more games or 250-400k WW.  That's with all the stars aligning in this game's favor and that's 2 years from now. 

 Yes but softawe is kinda ehh lacking, so a well reviewd highly praised online capable well marketed golf game can do quite well right now.

 And you have?