Well, the previous iterations sold to around 5-8% of Sony's Japan user base. At that rate it would seem breaking 100k would be a stretch in Japan. No one of course knows how well it will sell over time but I think we can say it has a couple reasons it may sell better and a couple reasons it may sell worse than its older versions.
PRO
It will be one of the few great games on the PS3.
To the extent the PS3 is selling largely to hard core Sony fanboys they could go the Nintendo fanboy route and buy up every 1st party game simply to support their console in its darkest hour.
There is a question as to how many PS2's were replacement, or same household systems. Even if it's something like 33% then the true attach rate would be 7.5-12%.
CON
Software attach rates in Japan have thus far been terrible for the PS3.
The PS2 dominated the casual gamer market, with so few casual gamers buying PS3's it should especially limit a casual game's sales.
The Japanese may be golf crazy, but they are certainly Wii crazy and after playing Wii Sports Golf how many Japanese will be waiting to buy Mario Golf on a system they already own vs. how many will want to shell out $600+ for an old style golf game?
Those are a few of the factors that will influence Hot Shots Golf sales. No one knows which will prove the most decisive but my own guess is for around a 8-10% attach rate (i.e. the factors will largely cancel out). Given that PS3 sales will probably be around 2 million by the time Hot Shots Golf sales die off I would say sales of 150-200k should be expected. The days of any decent game on a Sony system selling 1million+ in a single region are over.
Existing User Log In
New User Registration
Register for a free account to gain full access to the VGChartz Network and join our thriving community.
