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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction Wiifit will have a sell trough of 75% against the wiiinstallbase

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Several things have 75% on PC because they are needed, most MS offices have 75% too.

75% attachment rate is close to impossible. It has broken 33% in Japan, but it won't keep that % up. Why? Wii > Wii Fit in Japan for May. I would expect Wii Fit to have around 20-25% AR by the end of generation, in Japan.

SSBB in America, which is Nintendo's biggest seller there yet, broke 33% only for a short time, being down to 30.3% now. It is going to end with 20ish% AR here too, and I might be too optimistic, 15% is more realistic.

In Europe, Mario Kart Wii hasn't broken 20%, and Wii Sports is going to outsell it from now on. SSBB might sell a bit more, but it is unlikely to ever break 33%.


NONE of the big Wii games this gen have been able to break 40% AR, even for a week only. Are you telling me that a slow-seller (long-legger) is going to break it?

Nintendogs, a game compareable to Wii Fit, has never been above 33% AR, but staying steady around 20-25%.

Wii Fit will perhaps be able to stay 25-30% AR, but that is optimistic.

Halo 3, the biggest opening on a single console ever, and the highest AR launch (other than the ones within first 10 weeks of the console) ever, was unable to break 50%, although it almost made it. PS: This is America only.



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Oyvoyvoyv said:
^

Several things have 75% on PC because they are needed, most MS offices have 75% too.

75% attachment rate is close to impossible. It has broken 33% in Japan, but it won't keep that % up. Why? Wii > Wii Fit in Japan for May. I would expect Wii Fit to have around 20-25% AR by the end of generation, in Japan.

SSBB in America, which is Nintendo's biggest seller there yet, broke 33% only for a short time, being down to 30.3% now. It is going to end with 20ish% AR here too, and I might be too optimistic, 15% is more realistic.

In Europe, Mario Kart Wii hasn't broken 20%, and Wii Sports is going to outsell it from now on. SSBB might sell a bit more, but it is unlikely to ever break 33%.


NONE of the big Wii games this gen have been able to break 40% AR, even for a week only. Are you telling me that a slow-seller (long-legger) is going to break it?

Nintendogs, a game compareable to Wii Fit, has never been above 33% AR, but staying steady around 20-25%.

Wii Fit will perhaps be able to stay 25-30% AR, but that is optimistic.

Halo 3, the biggest opening on a single console ever, and the highest AR launch (other than the ones within first 10 weeks of the console) ever, was unable to break 50%, although it almost made it. PS: This is America only.


 One thing you forget is that there is just one game ( next to wiifit ) out that uses the balance board namely wii ski.

 Ones other games hit ( warioland shake uses it/ rayman 3 uses it )

people will want to have the board/boards because they will have too.

that will mean a massive explosion of sales.

so yes I believe 75 is possible still.

And everyone thinks they prove me wrong or call me insane but. 

come with real valid points attachrate does not mean anything your comparing games to a extension thats needed to play some of those games in the future.  



 

 

 

 

Oyvoyvoyv said:
^

Several things have 75% on PC because they are needed, most MS offices have 75% too.

75% attachment rate is close to impossible. It has broken 33% in Japan, but it won't keep that % up. Why? Wii > Wii Fit in Japan for May. I would expect Wii Fit to have around 20-25% AR by the end of generation, in Japan.

SSBB in America, which is Nintendo's biggest seller there yet, broke 33% only for a short time, being down to 30.3% now. It is going to end with 20ish% AR here too, and I might be too optimistic, 15% is more realistic.

In Europe, Mario Kart Wii hasn't broken 20%, and Wii Sports is going to outsell it from now on. SSBB might sell a bit more, but it is unlikely to ever break 33%.


NONE of the big Wii games this gen have been able to break 40% AR, even for a week only. Are you telling me that a slow-seller (long-legger) is going to break it?

Nintendogs, a game compareable to Wii Fit, has never been above 33% AR, but staying steady around 20-25%.

Wii Fit will perhaps be able to stay 25-30% AR, but that is optimistic.

Halo 3, the biggest opening on a single console ever, and the highest AR launch (other than the ones within first 10 weeks of the console) ever, was unable to break 50%, although it almost made it. PS: This is America only.


you make some good points,but last week wii fit in japan sold as much as wii



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brute said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
^

Several things have 75% on PC because they are needed, most MS offices have 75% too.

75% attachment rate is close to impossible. It has broken 33% in Japan, but it won't keep that % up. Why? Wii > Wii Fit in Japan for May. I would expect Wii Fit to have around 20-25% AR by the end of generation, in Japan.

SSBB in America, which is Nintendo's biggest seller there yet, broke 33% only for a short time, being down to 30.3% now. It is going to end with 20ish% AR here too, and I might be too optimistic, 15% is more realistic.

In Europe, Mario Kart Wii hasn't broken 20%, and Wii Sports is going to outsell it from now on. SSBB might sell a bit more, but it is unlikely to ever break 33%.


NONE of the big Wii games this gen have been able to break 40% AR, even for a week only. Are you telling me that a slow-seller (long-legger) is going to break it?

Nintendogs, a game compareable to Wii Fit, has never been above 33% AR, but staying steady around 20-25%.

Wii Fit will perhaps be able to stay 25-30% AR, but that is optimistic.

Halo 3, the biggest opening on a single console ever, and the highest AR launch (other than the ones within first 10 weeks of the console) ever, was unable to break 50%, although it almost made it. PS: This is America only.


you make some good points,but last week wii fit in japan sold as much as wii


Actually it was over 95% as well, but they did sell a little more wiis that wii fit.

 

I could see it doing 50% (but probably closer to 30% world wide).  Multiple board support isn't too likely. 

 

Bluetooth is designed to only support 7 slaves.  With the balance board and 4 remotes, it's already using 5 of them.  It is possible in bluetooth for parking to have more, but I doubt that the remotes can support that mode (maybe).  So, it's unlikely that Nintendo will allow more than one balance board to connect per wii, or if they did it would be at the loss of not supporting as many remotes at the same time.

 



densiyrex said:

Yes, this might sound crazy but I believe that end of the wii/wiifit lifetime. Wiifit will have sold to 75% of the wii install base. Why?

First the hype around wiifit is incredible.

Second wiifit is pointing at one of the pain points in the world (weight)

thirth a lot of developers already announced balance board support. Even people that dont have a Wii yet but want to get skate-it just to try it out will need a wii and balanceboard . So that install base will be 1 on 1.

I think the attachrate of wiifit will be more then wii play. 

 Prove me wrong?


 

I'm sure you live in the USA, thats why you think the rest of the world eats as much as Americans. Many people in other parts of the world can't afford to even eat that much. With that said, wii fit won't even reach 50% in the US only!

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@OP thread = trolling. 10% Wii Fit attachment rate of end of life time Wii install base would still be pushing it.



Rock_on_2008 said:
@OP thread = trolling. 10% Wii Fit attachment rate of end of life time Wii install base would still be pushing it.

I would not consider the OP thread trolling.  Perhaps a bit of overly optimistic fanboyism...  Suggesting that 10% is pushing it is more like trolling.

Remember when PCs came out with floppy drives as standard and hard drives were an expensive periphial?  What's the attach rate of hard drives now?

I am no way suggesting or in agreement that it's likely to become that much of a standard device to go with every wii, but stranger things have happened.  It's at least plausable enough that it doesn't qualify as trolling.



Rock_on_2008 said:
@OP thread = trolling. 10% Wii Fit attachment rate of end of life time Wii install base would still be pushing it.

 @rock is trolling:

I gave some valid points and are defending them. What are you doing?

 

and no I don't live in the US I live the netherlands I am dutch.

 

But I can't understand why people don't see when games are developed for the balance board they will need the board to play.

In fact I am willing to bet that by the end of 2008 the attachrate of wiifit will be  more then 35% and by end 2009( when the first wii games hit that use multiple boards. It will hit 55%



 

 

 

 

jlauro said:
Rock_on_2008 said:
@OP thread = trolling. 10% Wii Fit attachment rate of end of life time Wii install base would still be pushing it.

I would not consider the OP thread trolling. Perhaps a bit of overly optimistic fanboyism... Suggesting that 10% is pushing it is more like trolling.

Remember when PCs came out with floppy drives as standard and hard drives were an expensive periphial? What's the attach rate of hard drives now?

I am no way suggesting or in agreement that it's likely to become that much of a standard device to go with every wii, but stranger things have happened. It's at least plausable enough that it doesn't qualify as trolling.


 I am not a fanboy if anything I am a fanboy of good games not of companies.

I do love my wii but I am buying a ps3 next and for the most I still use my pc.

I just don't think I will be that far off. Strange predictions came trough. 



 

 

 

 

@ OP No way!!! 50% would be huge.



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