konnichiwa said: sc94597 said: konnichiwa said: Bobbuffalo said: I am really tired of listen to this honestly but I can't help it..  People are also getting tired of people saying 'GOOD 3d Party games will come soon'. A year ago people were already saying.  'The devs will make Exclusvive good 3D party games for the Wii you will probably already see some at E3!'. And now they are saying again 'They will come soon'. Will it be a new trend that Wii owners will say every year 'Sales of the Wii are great and good 3Dparty support will come soon!?   Konnichiwa, Have you ever read Sean Malstrom's articles on disruption , and blue ocean. There is a link in my sig if you haven't. Well think of it like this. Nintendo starts out by targetting the non gamers, to get them started in gaming. Then after they captured the casual market, they slowly try to make this market play more and more hardcore games, by making the hardcore games friendly to the casuals in the form of bridge titles.This is called moving upmarket from the downmarket, and is the easiest way to disrupt a market. Now not all casuals will move up market, but a good deal of the younger casuals such as children who haven't played games much, or young adults in their 20s who have never played games. The grandparents, and parents are the movers. So the problem is half the third parties are confused and are waiting for a guinea pig to make success on the wii, and the other half think the answer is to make casual games forever. There are some such as sega who are seeing what nintendo is doing, but others just think spamming casual games will work. Once these mini games become saturated and don't sell well anymore, they are going to pay close attention to what nintendo is doing. They are going to find out the way of disruption and move upmarket, and then once these developers start to become succesful. The ones who are just waiting for something to happen will follow their steps. I don't see a big flush of third party support, rather than it will gradually get better and better until it's huge. This is what happend to the ds, and is what is happening to the wii. Well this is how I understand Malstrom's articles anyway.    And how long will it take? 1 year? 3 Years? If we are talking about the Western devs I don't see them skipping to the Wii and make the majority of their good 3D party games to the Wii. The Japanese devs probably will skip to the Wii I agree with that though. And Yups the DS is a good example => Lots of new 3D party games coming but allmost all of them are from Japanese devs with some exceptions like Sonic RPG.

How long will it take until when? The reaches ds levlels? I would guess around a year , but 3rd parties will keep increasing support. The ds does attract more japanese developers than western. There is still alot of western support though. For example the rpg Black Sigil, is made by a canadian developer. Bioware is making a few games along with the dark brother hood. I think that devloper who is making MOON and made Touch the Dead? is a western developer. There are alot of games based off franchises on consoles such as CoD 4, Assasins' Creed, and End War on the ds.  The other consoles will  have more western support, but the wii will have more western support than the ds or maybe even more than the psp. Western developers never really made too many handheld games until the DS and PsP came. That is really enough for me though, seeing as I have all three consoles and a pc,. If somebody wants ALOT of western games then the wii isn't their console, but if they want a good balance between western and japanese games then the wii would be the best choice. I like japanese games more than western games anyway. It's all about their preference. One console won't get everything.

noname2200 said: konnichiwa said: Bobbuffalo said: I am really tired of listen to this honestly but I can't help it.. People are also getting tired of people saying 'GOOD 3d Party games will come soon'. A year ago people were already saying. 'The devs will make Exclusvive good 3D party games for the Wii you will probably already see some at E3!'. And now they are saying again 'They will come soon'. Will it be a new trend that Wii owners will say every year 'Sales of the Wii are great and good 3Dparty support will come soon!?  No, you're totally right. I mean, third parties knew from the get-go that the Wii was going to be the top system this generation, and there totally wasn't any doubt about that, so I too am annoyed at the fanboys who keep saying to wait for the 3rd party games. Because lord knows there's not a whole lot to play on the system as it is, and sales totally reflect that. They're pathetic. Really! And it's not like it takes 18-24 months to make a Wii game, or that a ton of development resources are already sunk into the 3-year HD development cycle, so I am at a loss to explain why third parties haven't completely flooded the system yet. Yup, totally at a loss. And there's no good 3rd party Wii games out now, not a one.       Am I doing this whole "willful blindness" thing right?

 And?  People were expecting that PS2 would fail, it was not easy to create games on it still it had already a lot of 3D party games or there were already  a bunch of them announced.

sc94597 said: konnichiwa said: sc94597 said: konnichiwa said: Bobbuffalo said: I am really tired of listen to this honestly but I can't help it..  People are also getting tired of people saying 'GOOD 3d Party games will come soon'. A year ago people were already saying.  'The devs will make Exclusvive good 3D party games for the Wii you will probably already see some at E3!'. And now they are saying again 'They will come soon'. Will it be a new trend that Wii owners will say every year 'Sales of the Wii are great and good 3Dparty support will come soon!?   Konnichiwa, Have you ever read Sean Malstrom's articles on disruption , and blue ocean. There is a link in my sig if you haven't. Well think of it like this. Nintendo starts out by targetting the non gamers, to get them started in gaming. Then after they captured the casual market, they slowly try to make this market play more and more hardcore games, by making the hardcore games friendly to the casuals in the form of bridge titles.This is called moving upmarket from the downmarket, and is the easiest way to disrupt a market. Now not all casuals will move up market, but a good deal of the younger casuals such as children who haven't played games much, or young adults in their 20s who have never played games. The grandparents, and parents are the movers. So the problem is half the third parties are confused and are waiting for a guinea pig to make success on the wii, and the other half think the answer is to make casual games forever. There are some such as sega who are seeing what nintendo is doing, but others just think spamming casual games will work. Once these mini games become saturated and don't sell well anymore, they are going to pay close attention to what nintendo is doing. They are going to find out the way of disruption and move upmarket, and then once these developers start to become succesful. The ones who are just waiting for something to happen will follow their steps. I don't see a big flush of third party support, rather than it will gradually get better and better until it's huge. This is what happend to the ds, and is what is happening to the wii. Well this is how I understand Malstrom's articles anyway.    And how long will it take? 1 year? 3 Years? If we are talking about the Western devs I don't see them skipping to the Wii and make the majority of their good 3D party games to the Wii. The Japanese devs probably will skip to the Wii I agree with that though. And Yups the DS is a good example => Lots of new 3D party games coming but allmost all of them are from Japanese devs with some exceptions like Sonic RPG. How long will it take until when? The reaches ds levlels? I would guess around a year , but 3rd parties will keep increasing support. The ds does attract more japanese developers than western. There is still alot of western support though. For example the rpg Black Sigil, is made by a canadian developer. Bioware is making a few games along with the dark brother hood. I think that devloper who is making MOON and made Touch the Dead? is a western developer. There are alot of games based off franchises on consoles such as CoD 4, Assasins' Creed, and End War on the ds.  The other consoles will  have more western support, but the wii will have more western support than the ds or maybe even more than the psp. Western developers never really made too many handheld games until the DS and PsP came. That is really enough for me though, seeing as I have all three consoles and a pc,. If somebody wants ALOT of western games then the wii isn't their console, but if they want a good balance between western and japanese games then the wii would be the best choice. I like japanese games more than western games anyway. It's all about their preference. One console won't get everything.

I have heard this already a few times before, time will tell I guess...

konnichiwa said: noname2200 said: konnichiwa said: Bobbuffalo said: And? People were expecting that PS2 would fail, it was not easy to create games on it still it had already a lot of 3D party games or there were already a bunch of them announced.

 Huh. I guess I somehow managed to miss the part where the PS2 was not expected to be the market leader in its generation. But I don't feel too bad about that, because apparently so did everybody else...The closest I can remember anyone saying it would "fail" was a handful of people thinking it'd be a close three-way race, which is quite a far cry from failing, I assure you.

Either way their going to make money, but let's see in 2009, my guess is while everyone is making 1 million in PS360 everyone is making 3 million on Wii (profit difference not revenue.) For the relative software and relative business strategy.

ie. A failed game on the PS360 will profit 3x less than a failed game within the same region on the Wii, that's my *guess*, and by profit I mean towards publisher.

I'm going to go as far as to say Nintendo's 2009 annual report is going to have about 4 billion dollars in profit, roughly 1.5 billion of it strait from Wii's being sold... (Ok maybe I did run some numbers there, but not nearly enough to not make it speculation at best.)

The only good thing to come out of this, is that new publishers and developement houses could be on the rise, maybe some of them would rival EA eventually.

Implementing Wii motion into every game is a headache for developers. It is no simple task to put in Wii motion control for the games to be used with the Wii remote.

dib8rman said: Either way their going to make money, but let's see in 2009, my guess is while everyone is making 1 million in PS360 everyone is making 3 million on Wii (profit difference not revenue.) For the relative software and relative business strategy. ie. A failed game on the PS360 will profit 3x less than a failed game within the same region on the Wii, that's my *guess*, and by profit I mean towards publisher. I'm going to go as far as to say Nintendo's 2009 annual report is going to have about 4 billion dollars in profit, roughly 1.5 billion of it strait from Wii's being sold... (Ok maybe I did run some numbers there, but not nearly enough to not make it speculation at best.) The only good thing to come out of this, is that new publishers and developement houses could be on the rise, maybe some of them would rival EA eventually.

On average a third party Wins bigger on the HD consoles and they lose bigger too.

I would guess that the Wii is a safer bet with higher average returns, but you're less likely to win the jackpot developing for it.

Squilliam said: dib8rman said: Either way their going to make money, but let's see in 2009, my guess is while everyone is making 1 million in PS360 everyone is making 3 million on Wii (profit difference not revenue.) For the relative software and relative business strategy. ie. A failed game on the PS360 will profit 3x less than a failed game within the same region on the Wii, that's my *guess*, and by profit I mean towards publisher. I'm going to go as far as to say Nintendo's 2009 annual report is going to have about 4 billion dollars in profit, roughly 1.5 billion of it strait from Wii's being sold... (Ok maybe I did run some numbers there, but not nearly enough to not make it speculation at best.) The only good thing to come out of this, is that new publishers and developement houses could be on the rise, maybe some of them would rival EA eventually. On average a third party Wins bigger on the HD consoles and they lose bigger too. I would guess that the Wii is a safer bet with higher average returns, but you're less likely to win the jackpot developing for it.

 

I'm not sure it's a safer bet.

If you look at HD console games sales this gen, there have been very few failures and even games with poor review have been doing somewhat well ( Heavenly Sword at 1million+, Haze doing over 200k in first week).

So far it really seems like if you are a well known developer, spend a decent amount of cash in development and marketing you are likely to deliver something successfull on the HD consoles.

On the Wii things haven't been as clear cut and some well reviewed titles have failed to sell as expected....

 

PS : And as someone pointed out the price of Wii games being lower probably means developer gets less cash per Wii game sold than per PS360 game sold...

As long as shovelware sells more than 500,000 units on wii(like rayman,carnival,...) dev teams will earn enough profit this way and will not change their production methods,,,If one day ,say rayman 3, sells less than 80,000 units then ubi will rethink its strategies,,,but not now,,,they spend next to nothing on a wii title and profit from it like crazyy,so they don't see the point in spending time and money on  quality titles.

I just saw a Wii Fit commercial, am at the moment in Norway, and the commercial was with for hot chicks playing Wii Fit... I knew it, this is real girls stuff, Nintendo knows it too