The only conceivable reason for attempting the "pre-emptive strike" strategy of console marketing is when a current generation platform is not able to maintain profitability, whether that be due to a continued loss of market share, an inability to streamline hardware production (both reducing production costs and increasing production) or the most basic being lack of compelling soft titles.

These have been the reasons for virtually every premature demise of any console and currently, none of these reasons are an issue for any of the three current consoles. There's a market established for all of them, and they are all currently profitable and growing in sales over the previous year if not in market share (which is arguably the the least significant bit of data when taken solely by itself without examining the underlying fundamentals).

The only reason the Xbox was prematurely kicked was because it was losing money well into its life cycle. MS didn't even bother to wait and see how successful the 360 would be before unceremoniously dropping its predecessor. It's a safe guess to say that the Xbox would probably have stayed in production if it was generating enough revenue to post a profit like the PS2. It is horse sense to cut a product that is still laying golden eggs and this was clearly not the case for the Xbox.

The 360 is not in the same position this generation; it's profitable.

A new control scheme does not require an entirely new console (GC - Wii) so long as the core unit itself is still viable. Another 360 SKU is conceivable with a motion control remote and a pack in tech demo to showcase what the new peripheral adds, but a new controller alone, is not a reason to start again with a clean sheet of paper unless virtually every major game being designed moving forward is done so around a new control scheme.

As of right now, that's about the biggest thing MS could add to the Xbox, with other corrections/improvements like mandatory HDD, built in WiFi and possibly HD media format for games (and more RAM and VRAM), which would require the introduction of an entirely new platform or else it would mean having to publish games on both HD media and DVD9, which is extremely unlikely and logistically messy.

If MS added an HD media drive for the purpose of publishing games on HD media, then you have a new console, which would then take full advantage of advances in CPU and GPU development.

Since Iwata was talking about Wii possibly not getting a pricecut in 4 years, that can be considered as Nintendo aiming Wiis successor for 2012. I'd say that 2011 is realistic for the next M$ console and PS4 2011-2012.

@Rock on: As for the names, PS4 seems pretty obvious, unless Sony realises how worn the "Playstation" name really is. Xbox 720 sounds as likely as Wii 2, since Xbox 360 was "technical" term, it had the "360", Power PC, circuitry. If Xbox would have been named in similar fashion, it would have been Xbox 386. And Nintendo, they propably want to surprise again, although something similar to "Super Wii" wouldn't surprise me.

Actually there are more than one reason to release a new console. Besides if Sony can Sell the PS2 alongside the PS3, the Nextbox will live happily alongside the 360. 6 years is a long time in the Computer industry, you guys seem to forget that. In perspective thats 3 dies shrinks and 3 full generations and 3 refreshes of technology.

PS3 release. - G80 released and more than doubles it. G92 released - same perfomance for half the price - G100 in two months is expected to double the power again over the g80.

If they want to retarget the consoles at different markets then thats up to them.

Well I have one thing to say : cant wait to the next gen portables :D

agree with 2010 being too early, I think well see the next set of systems start to come around 2011 or so...

All three console manufacturers have expressed their desire to see this cycle last longer than the previous ones. Therefore, I'm predicting the Xbox 720 in Xmas 2012, and the PS4 and Wii2 at Xmas 2013.

In addition, the DS2 and PSP2 will launch alongside each-other at Xmas 2011. Sony may launch the PSP2 a year earlier, though, to try and get a heads-up on Nintendo.

2010 sounds very early but... it might just be. M$ could release a new console - not a $400, highest-tech console but a cheaper one, to live along with the X360. They could gain new users easily, and maybe they could even release some games playable on both systems with just different settings. They've lost this gen although they are making money but they will want marketshare.

There will definitely be no PS4 or anything like that in 2010. They've yet to make profit with this gen but they will when time passes. A PSP2 or something like that could be likely though.

A new Nintendo console? Maybe, but only to live along with the Wii. It'd be a good moment. Blu-ray has won and could be getting popular in 2010. Nintendo could market their new console as a Blu-ray player. Oh yes, it will definitely support HD graphics on the gaming side and could defeat the PS3. It's price wouldn't be too high (they're not going to release a $400 console either).

We might actually end up having two gens at once: the current one, where PS3 and Wii are competing, and a new one where Xbox 3 are the new Nintendo console would be competing. The one with Xbox 3 and Nintendo would be higher-tech but not too expensive. These two leagues would also compete with each other but still mostly within themselves.

Sounds strange but it might just be reality in 2010-2011. Consoles are changing.

Read m sig.

I think the slim PS3 will force MS and N hand.

360 yes, PSP maybe, PS4 & Wii 2 not a chance, DS, who knows?

Well 2010 could be possible. MS will defiantly release first. There 6 bln loss up until now is nothing compared to what they earn with windows. At this moment PS2 isn't stealing sales from PS3 (target group is way different). The same can be applied for 360 and 720. Why wouldn't they take advantage of releasing first. The have enough money, and should still support 360 with games (those might also be downloadable for 720).