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Forums - Sales - Wii: Sony doubts longevity

Bodhesatva on 04 June 2007
Christopher_G2 said:
WiiGirl76 said:
FishyJoe said:
People said the same things about the DS.

You're so right and it is true?! Back then they said the DS would be a total disaster before it released, piece of crap, outdated, etc.etc. and look how far it got? Newsflash, high tech graphics doesn't sell games, so far Nintendo has very much proven that already with the DS.

Oh and I'm 30 owning a WII, what does that make me? An overgrown adult with a childish mind. Besides how bad is that ey?!


I think we should caution against the DS and Wii comparisons. For one Nintendo has owned the handheld market for nearly 20 years. And second the competition the Wii will have in the console market through 2008 and beyond will be far more fierce than the competition the PSP or anything else can give the DS. I'm just not convinced the Wii can pull a PS2 and sell amazing for 5 or 6 straight years but I know the DS will. I see the Wii selling amazing for it's first two years, than as the HD gaming market really starts to show itself the Wii will start gradually declining though the rest of the generation. The Wii is likely to be the best seller this generation, but it's not going to be as much as a runaway as some people think.


I do agree that the situations aren't perfectly analogous, and Nintendo's resilience in the portable market does not garauntee success in the console market.

However, the two aren't totally unrelated either. Suggesting that the two scenarios are completely the same isn't right; but I think it's equally foolish to suggest they're completely different. Keep in mind that detractors were mocking the DS for the precise reasons they mock the Wii now: inferior graphics, "gimmicky" controls. It's also important to note that the PSP stood its ground fairly well against the DS at first, but has fallen further and further behind over the last 18 months, as you can see here:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=DS&reg1=All&cons2=PSP&reg2=All&cons3=DS&reg3=All

I also want to caution, again, that I'm not exactly disagreeing with you. I don't think the Wii is going to own as much market share as the PS2 did, for example. I'm just stressing the few points in which I disagree here.



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LordTheNightKnight on 04 June 2007
Christopher_G2 said:
WiiGirl76 said:
FishyJoe said:
People said the same things about the DS.

You're so right and it is true?! Back then they said the DS would be a total disaster before it released, piece of crap, outdated, etc.etc. and look how far it got? Newsflash, high tech graphics doesn't sell games, so far Nintendo has very much proven that already with the DS.

Oh and I'm 30 owning a WII, what does that make me? An overgrown adult with a childish mind. Besides how bad is that ey?!


I think we should caution against the DS and Wii comparisons. For one Nintendo has owned the handheld market for nearly 20 years. And second the competition the Wii will have in the console market through 2008 and beyond will be far more fierce than the competition the PSP or anything else can give the DS. I'm just not convinced the Wii can pull a PS2 and sell amazing for 5 or 6 straight years but I know the DS will. I see the Wii selling amazing for it's first two years, than as the HD gaming market really starts to show itself the Wii will start gradually declining though the rest of the generation. The Wii is likely to be the best seller this generation, but it's not going to be as much as a runaway as some people think.


 The problem with that hypothesis is that it assumes motion control won't get a similar boost when developers catch on, and the have not at the moment.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

gawalls on 04 June 2007

fact is the Wiimote is so different they had to give it a hook for the public to swallow and affordable gaming was it.  This isn't Nintendo's big picture, I reckon they're probably trhinking if the Wii last 3 years then great and they've probably already got the replacement ready once people are used to the remote, companies know how to develop for it, they have a library to introduce backwards compatibility and Hd is cheaper and more popular.



Those people that think they're perfect give a bad reputation to us who are... 

"With the DS, it's fair to say that Nintendo stepped out of the technical race and went for a feature differentiation with the touch screen, but I fear that it won't have a lasting impact beyond that of a gimmick - so the long-lasting appeal of the platform is at peril as a direct result of that." - Phil Harrison, Sony

robjoh on 04 June 2007
Christopher_G2 said:

I think we should caution against the DS and Wii comparisons. For one Nintendo has owned the handheld market for nearly 20 years. And second the competition the Wii will have in the console market through 2008 and beyond will be far more fierce than the competition the PSP or anything else can give the DS. I'm just not convinced the Wii can pull a PS2 and sell amazing for 5 or 6 straight years but I know the DS will. I see the Wii selling amazing for it's first two years, than as the HD gaming market really starts to show itself the Wii will start gradually declining though the rest of the generation. The Wii is likely to be the best seller this generation, but it's not going to be as much as a runaway as some people think.


Now, I have probarbly asked this at least 10 times so far no "HD-gaming will win in 2009" have answered. Do you have the balls to do it? Here the question comes:

* Why would anybody that buys Wii for Wii Sport today cara if HD-gaming push the graphics even furture? I mean it isn't like Wii Sport is even close to PS3 or xbox360 at all NOW?

gawalls said:
fact is the Wiimote is so different they had to give it a hook for the public to swallow and affordable gaming was it.  This isn't Nintendo's big picture, I reckon they're probably trhinking if the Wii last 3 years then great and they've probably already got the replacement ready once people are used to the remote, companies know how to develop for it, they have a library to introduce backwards compatibility and Hd is cheaper and more popular.

Well Nintendo isn't saying 10 years of lifespann but if you think 3 years is everything they will push the Wii when they pushed GC for 5 I think you are a little bit wrong. But mayby I just miss understood you.



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

KruzeS on 04 June 2007
gawalls said:
fact is the Wiimote is so different they had to give it a hook for the public to swallow and affordable gaming was it.

I'm sorry, but that's just silly. Price isn't a hook. The Gamecube retailed at $200 when it first came out, the Wii is $250 with one game. The price for Japan was actually the same for both with no games (Â¥25,000). $200 was also the MSRP for the N64. If anything force bundling the game is the hook, and a hook a hell of a lot Japanese willingly fall into everyday.

Sony is the one that started at $300 for the PS1 and PS2, and now effectively doubled that for the PS3. Microsoft, to its credit, also went from $300 to $400 with the Premium (and now $480 with the Elite). Yeah, I know, inflation and all. Still doesn't account for doubling the price in 6 years, and if anything, people expect tecnhology to get cheaper and leaner, not sturdier and twice as expensive.



Reality has a Nintendo bias.
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WiiGirl76 on 04 June 2007
HappySqurriel said:

We probably shouldn't make direct comparisons between the Wii and DS because they're in different markets.

With that said, the point everyone makes using that comparison is quite valid; the NES, SNES, Gameboy, Playstation, PS2 and Nintendo DS have all sold really well inspite of facing competition which was far more powerful and (in many cases) had far greater multimedia capabilities. The reason for the success of these platforms is varied but (in general) they were successful because they were affordable systems which sold well enough to be supported heavily by developers through out their life; at the same time none of these systems were constantly outsold by direct competition for any period of time.

Now, the question is how long the Wii can survive for ...

If sales trends continue by mid 2008 there will be no way that the XBox 360 or PS3 will be able to "kill" the Wii; as long as the Wii outsells the PS3 and XBox 360 combined resources will continue to shift towards the Wii at the expense of XBox 360/PS3 development. By mid 2008 developers will be spending similar ammounts of money on Wii exclusive games as they will be on producing multi-platform PS3/XBox 360 games, which will result in the Wii having 2 to 4 times as many exclusive games as the PS3 or XBox 360 have in total games.

DS has the stylus, WII has the remote control

DS is less powerful then the PSP but sells worldwide twice as much

WII is  less powerful then the PS3, but sells worldwide twice as much

And from both people has been saying it's just a gimmick which will completely fail, but both are selling like sky rocket. Of course it's too soon to compare sales, as the DS is way longer on the market, but for now the WII is experiencing a deja vu.



This profile is no longer in use, see my other profile *~Onna76~*

auroragb on 04 June 2007
NJ5 said:
It's not about feature bloat, it's about implementing features in a bloated way. The Xbox 360 OS is implemented using 32 MB of memory. Sony's engineers couldn't do the same, so either they're lousy programmers or they didn't have enough time to do it right...

Well, it's hard to design and optimize properly when marketing is adding features left and right. Also, writing an OS for a new processor does not help either. Adding in a separate video card towards the end of the process compounded to their woes. compilers don't get good at optimizing until the 3rd or 4th iteration.

These things combined to make a bloated OS (MS had none of these problems). Fact that it's not reporting crashes in major fashions in thousands of ways is a testament to engineering and QA