I dunno 50% is asking a lot. I would guess that it won't happen anytime this year, maybe near the end of 2009 they can pull it off. But really supply issues have made it impossible this year I think.

Btw mummelmann are you aware that your 2008 predictions mean that you think between now and the end of the year the wii and ps3 will sell at the same rate? (10mill each). That is a kinda silly prediction don't you think? In fact predicting SMG and SSBB won't make 7mill was also completly insane O.o; SSBB is at 5.2million, hasn't been released in europe yet, and only been out 2 months in america. SSBM on GC even managed 7mill.

Wii fit is a shot in the dark for 7mill (depending on how much america embraces it). SSBB is a dead certain.

This holiday season. It's already at 45% and getting more than 50% every week. It's just simple math.

probably never, I figure after this holiday the Wii's market as well as the DS's will be saturated.

Could the people saying as a fact it will pass 50% this holyday season back up their claim with actual data or maths ?

Fact 1 :

-There's 25.17 million Wii out there

- There's 30.76 millions PS3+360 out there.

Fact 2 :

- 1.8 millions Wii produced/month right now, increasing to 2.4 millions/month in July.

Fact 3 :

So far in 4 months in 2008 we have :

-5.933 Millions Wii sold

-5.943 millions 360+PS3 sold.

Fact 4 :

- There's 8 months remaining in the year.

Now give us the math that has Wii pass 360+PS3 by the holydays...

It will happen this Christmas.

If Nintendo can pull a 420% increase out of their ass for GTA4 vs. MKWii week, then who knows how ridiculous Wii supply will be this Christmas.

They were ready to steal GTA4's thunder. They'll do it again for Christmas. They're ready.

The question is... are we?

While I think you may be right in that it will not happen this year Ail. part of your math is wrong.

I am going to have to bring out my table again
(actually I will just explain instead)

However the minimum number of consoles Nintendo will be able to produce in time for Christmas without air shipping will be 42 million. With air shipping it is 43 million.

That is a minimum because it is assuming a sudden increase in production from 1.8 million p/month in June to 2.4 million in July, however it is more likely that the months inbetween now and then will be inbetween the two figures as they slowly ramp up production.

This could account for an extra million in time, which with some strategic air shipping makes 44 million shipped consoles

Of course shipped != sold, but if demand is similar to last year it could be as close as 500k, meaning 43.5 million sold.
-----------------------------------------------
However from the increase in PS3s sales and the not yet slowing down 360 their combined user base is likely to be 1-2 million higher than that. (20.5-21.0 million PS3s, and 24.0-24.5 million 360s)

TWRoO said: While I think you may be right in that it will not happen this year Ail. part of your math is wrong. I am going to have to bring out my table again (actually I will just explain instead) However the minimum number of consoles Nintendo will be able to produce in time for Christmas without air shipping will be 42 million. With air shipping it is 43 million. That is a minimum because it is assuming a sudden increase in production from 1.8 million p/month in June to 2.4 million in July, however it is more likely that the months inbetween now and then will be inbetween the two figures as they slowly ramp up production. This could account for an extra million in time, which with some strategic air shipping makes 44 million shipped consoles Of course shipped != sold, but if demand is similar to last year it could be as close as 500k, meaning 43.5 million sold. ----------------------------------------------- However from the increase in PS3s sales and the not yet slowing down 360 their combined user base is likely to be 1-2 million higher than that. (20.5-21.0 million PS3s, and 24.0-24.5 million 360s)

See that's the only thing I was asking for :)

Someone trying to logically argue and not trying to pull numbers out of thin air with no facts/data/maths to back them up :)

None of the :

A : 'Wii is going to be over 50% marketshare by holydays'

B : 'Why ? How will they do it ?'

A : 'Because I said so !'

And if it's just simple maths, show us the maths, we aren't stupid !

Q4 2008, around Christmas

Ail said: TWRoO said: While I think you may be right in that it will not happen this year Ail. part of your math is wrong. I am going to have to bring out my table again (actually I will just explain instead) However the minimum number of consoles Nintendo will be able to produce in time for Christmas without air shipping will be 42 million. With air shipping it is 43 million. That is a minimum because it is assuming a sudden increase in production from 1.8 million p/month in June to 2.4 million in July, however it is more likely that the months inbetween now and then will be inbetween the two figures as they slowly ramp up production. This could account for an extra million in time, which with some strategic air shipping makes 44 million shipped consoles Of course shipped != sold, but if demand is similar to last year it could be as close as 500k, meaning 43.5 million sold. ----------------------------------------------- However from the increase in PS3s sales and the not yet slowing down 360 their combined user base is likely to be 1-2 million higher than that. (20.5-21.0 million PS3s, and 24.0-24.5 million 360s) See that's the only thing I was asking for :) Someone trying to logically argue and not trying to pull numbers out of thin air with no facts/data/maths to back them up :) None of the : A : 'Wii is going to be over 50% marketshare by holydays' B : 'Why ? How will they do it ?' A : 'Because I said so !' And if it's just simple maths, show us the maths, we aren't stupid !

Well it is still possible, after all Nintendo may see fit to increasesupply some more. However I am doubtful of this, so it is unlikely there will be more than 44 million Wiis shipped by the end of 2008.

The more variable number is PS3+360, because I cannot base any calculations on production numbers (partly because I don't know them but mainly because the two consoles sales don't follow them so easily)

So perhaps the PS3 doesn't get a price cut and slows down a bit, then has a similar Christmas to last year, that could mean fewer than 20 million PS3s.
And perhaps the 360 begins it's decline into old age sooner than the expected "3rd year" with a poorer Christmas than last year, therfore topping out just short of 24 million.

So if the Wii achives it's full potential (with the expected rate of production) it is possible it will make 50% in December. But I think it likely we will have to wait till February or March next year.

 Yeah well, it was written around December 15th last year. I'll systematically announce them as they go bust, much like American property brokers nowadays... All hardware will be lowballed I think (but it won't be miles off either), but I'd rather keep the sig and note the failures as they come rather than update it with new info as a backdrop all the time to look as if I gave a clue. Missing a prediction I can live with, updating them (changing it) when I realize they're gonna phail is just... childish won't you agree?