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TWRoO on 06 May 2008
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Ail said:
TWRoO said:
While I think you may be right in that it will not happen this year Ail. part of your math is wrong.

I am going to have to bring out my table again
(actually I will just explain instead)

However the minimum number of consoles Nintendo will be able to produce in time for Christmas without air shipping will be 42 million. With air shipping it is 43 million.

That is a minimum because it is assuming a sudden increase in production from 1.8 million p/month in June to 2.4 million in July, however it is more likely that the months inbetween now and then will be inbetween the two figures as they slowly ramp up production.

This could account for an extra million in time, which with some strategic air shipping makes 44 million shipped consoles

Of course shipped != sold, but if demand is similar to last year it could be as close as 500k, meaning 43.5 million sold.
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However from the increase in PS3s sales and the not yet slowing down 360 their combined user base is likely to be 1-2 million higher than that. (20.5-21.0 million PS3s, and 24.0-24.5 million 360s)

See that's the only thing I was asking for :)

Someone trying to logically argue and not trying to pull numbers out of thin air with no facts/data/maths to back them up :)

None of the :

A : 'Wii is going to be over 50% marketshare by holydays'

B : 'Why ? How will they do it ?'

A : 'Because I said so !'

And if it's just simple maths, show us the maths, we aren't stupid !


Well it is still possible, after all Nintendo may see fit to increasesupply some more. However I am doubtful of this, so it is unlikely there will be more than 44 million Wiis shipped by the end of 2008.

The more variable number is PS3+360, because I cannot base any calculations on production numbers (partly because I don't know them but mainly because the two consoles sales don't follow them so easily)

So perhaps the PS3 doesn't get a price cut and slows down a bit, then has a similar Christmas to last year, that could mean fewer than 20 million PS3s.
And perhaps the 360 begins it's decline into old age sooner than the expected "3rd year" with a poorer Christmas than last year, therfore topping out just short of 24 million.

So if the Wii achives it's full potential (with the expected rate of production) it is possible it will make 50% in December. But I think it likely we will have to wait till February or March next year.