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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why do people predict a massive boost for Sony and crushing defeat for MS?

The_God_of_War said:
 

Let's not forget that analysts and the media tend to blow things out of proportion eg, last year when they claimed the PS3 would be the next 3DO.

The general consensus is that the 360's 2008 line-up is inferior to it's 2007 line-up, perhaps that's why people are ignoring it and hyping up the PS3's line-up instead. Also it's 2007 WW sales were less than it's 2006 WW sales, not really good news for MS, this suggests that 3rd place is inevitable for the 360. Of course, I expect it to sell a lot more than the original Xbox.

And let's not underestimate just how much a PlayStation can sell- it's the only brand in history to sell over 100 million consoles, twice in a row. Not even Nintendo have done that (Yet). People have doubted every PS console for a variety of reasons, yet their lifetime numbers always turn out to be gigantic.

 

So.....that's probably why people predict a massive boost for Sony and crushing defeat for MS? In a way I agree, but "massive boost" and "crushing defeat" is a bit of an exaggeration.

 

There are a couple of issues with your post.

First, I wasn't aware of any general consensus that this year's 360 line-up isn't comparable to last years?  In fact, I think most people believe it is better.  It's just that this year, unlike last year, there is quality-based competition from Sony, so it is all relative.

Secondly, the 360 sold more consoles last year than in 2006.  You are looking at shipment numbers, and therefore ignoring the chanel stuffing Microsoft did at the end of 2006.   More importantly, your ignoring the fact that the 360 is greatly outselling itself year over year this year.

 



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I don't think anyone sensible is predicting 'crushing defeat' for 360.

If I take DMC4 as the most similar example (then adjust for historic GTA appeal) then I would figure 360 will sell more SW WW than PS3 (say 1.2 to 1) but because of larger 360 install base (and how much of it is for the same demographic as GTA appeals too) I would expect PS3 to see a larger HW boost from the title (in relation to current install base) than the 360.

Both consoles will benefit from GTA its just the expectation would be that PS3 would benefit more.

Its all just going on precedence though - once we see firm numbers we'll know for sure. For all anyone knows 360 might see more benefit than PS3.EDIT: sorry, answered for GTA Iv only as that seems to be only topic around here.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

That is what I am saying. In the Uk we have Chart track and they say they are selling around the same, but in the other EU counties there is no chart track and in these regions that PS3 is supposable selling in some cases 300% more. This seems strange to me, and untill we get some other source to comfirm this I can't really beleave it. As I don't think anyone knows the state of countries like Spain and Italy.



Damn, Damn, DAMN!

Another comparison.

I had no idea the PS3 doing so much better this year, than last year would be such a big deal.

Sjeez.



starcraft said:
The_God_of_War said:
 

Let's not forget that analysts and the media tend to blow things out of proportion eg, last year when they claimed the PS3 would be the next 3DO.

The general consensus is that the 360's 2008 line-up is inferior to it's 2007 line-up, perhaps that's why people are ignoring it and hyping up the PS3's line-up instead. Also it's 2007 WW sales were less than it's 2006 WW sales, not really good news for MS, this suggests that 3rd place is inevitable for the 360. Of course, I expect it to sell a lot more than the original Xbox.

And let's not underestimate just how much a PlayStation can sell- it's the only brand in history to sell over 100 million consoles, twice in a row. Not even Nintendo have done that (Yet). People have doubted every PS console for a variety of reasons, yet their lifetime numbers always turn out to be gigantic.

 

So.....that's probably why people predict a massive boost for Sony and crushing defeat for MS? In a way I agree, but "massive boost" and "crushing defeat" is a bit of an exaggeration.

 

There are a couple of issues with your post.

First, I wasn't aware of any general consensus that this year's 360 line-up isn't comparable to last years? In fact, I think most people believe it is better. It's just that this year, unlike last year, there is quality-based competition from Sony, so it is all relative.

Secondly, the 360 sold more consoles last year than in 2006. You are looking at shipment numbers, and therefore ignoring the chanel stuffing Microsoft did at the end of 2006. More importantly, your ignoring the fact that the 360 is greatly outselling itself year over year this year.

 

It just seems that the '08 line-up isn't being as hyped as it's '07 line-up. The media seem to be more focused on the PS3's line-up this year, I don't see much hype for the 360 as compared to the PS3. I get the impression from the media that the 360 is no longer the "absolute must-have number 1 console", which was the impression they seemed to be giving last year, particularaly around September.

I wasn't aware of any channel stuffing by MS. I'm pretty sure their official WW numbers for 2006 were 10.4 million, with 7.3 million for 2007, but correct me if I'm wrong. I'm actually aware that it's 2008 sales have increased over it's 2007 sales, but the PS3's increase is bigger.

 



  

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The media seem to be more focused on the PS3's line-up this year


The point is the PS3 doesn't even need a better lineup (which I think it has unless more games are put into 2009) They managed to sell on par with the 360 (worldwide) 2007 with a price of 600$, Lair and Heavenly Sword.
I bought a PS3 in Europe launch and it was a pretty nice movie player for a while. The 360 had Halo, Bioshock, Mass Effects, Gears. The PS3 had Uncharted and Ratchet. And it didn't manage to outsell the PS3. They will have a problem this year.



ChrisTheGreat said:
That is what I am saying. In the Uk we have Chart track and they say they are selling around the same, but in the other EU counties there is no chart track and in these regions that PS3 is supposable selling in some cases 300% more. This seems strange to me, and untill we get some other source to comfirm this I can't really beleave it. As I don't think anyone knows the state of countries like Spain and Italy.

 It's not a matter of what each individual country is doing to the nearest whole number....

Anyway, the numbers for each region as a whole are cross checked with the quarterly reports by each manufacturer.

The PS3 does sell that much better than the 360 in Europe and it is confirmed by Sony and MS themselves... The split between the countries may be iless accurate, where there are no tracking companies, but overall the figures are correct...



PSN ID: T_Gears

End of 2009 ltd sales:

Wii = 67-68m

X360 = 38-39m

PS3 = 34-35m

Prediction: The PS3 will surpass the 360 on weekly sales after it drops to $299 on all regular weeks (no big releases).

starcraft said:
taxman said:
JGarret said:
"The Wii will never have the same games and gameplay as the others."

The problem with that is if the Wii starts 'stealing' games that were intended for PS3 and/or 360...so far I can only think of Monster Hunter 3, but if others follow..

It will happen definitely, but not the games that really matter (the GTAs, FFs, Halos etc). Except maybe some jRPGs and such... And also some of those games that will be ported will also probably have a lower budget to begin with which would have made them suck if done in HD anyway....

The multiplatform games for both HD consoles will be the norm in the future (as it is now) and the developers will be better at porting these games, so they could still capture 40-60% of the market that way and avoid the Wii anyway.....

Read my last post. The FF's, GT's and MGS's won't do for the PS3 what they did for the PS2.

 

Nobody said that they would, and they don't need to anyway. The PS3 is already outselling the 360 without them despite its larger price tag and smaller game library, so what do you think is going to happen when those games are released?

 

Anway, the situation between the PS3 and 360 has done a complete 180. It wasn't that long ago that people were claiming that the PS3 was dead in the water, but now it's outselling the 360 worldwide week in and week out. Just look at the 360 by itself. It could have and should have sold a lot more than what it has by now, and MS had a chance to really put the PS3 away before it launched by slashing the price on it by $100 in Nov. '06(and the premium should be at $250 right now), but they failed to do so, and 30 months later the 360 is only $50 cheaper than it was when it first launched. This gave Sony time to come out with a $400 PS3, and here we are. The Euro price cut didn't have the intended effect as MS is still dead last in Europe, and as if that weren't enough, the 360 is not being matched/beaten by the PS3 in its strongest territory(N. America).

 

While 360 sales might be up year over year, the momentum has clearly shifted to the PS3, and this is why people are making such predictions.

 



 

Consoles owned: Saturn, Dreamcast, PS1, PS2, PSP, DS, PS3

Rock_on_2008 said:
PS3 is the continuation of the PS2 dominance and it is expected to heavily outsell the XBox 360.
 

Sorry, wrong answer. If the PS3 is a continuation of the PS2's dominance, it would be selling at Wiilike levels and leaving the 360 in the dust. The PS3 is NO PS2. The PS2 has tons of exclusives, including GTA, that propelled it into the stratosphere. This time around, brand worldwide are driving sales. Sony has pimped the PS brand for Blu Ray, and yeah, there are games coming out, but dang - they aren't igniting hardware sales and the game attach rate is ... ai'te.

Make no mistake - the Xbox was just a trojan horse for the 360. MS killed off support to settle a lawsuit, took a different path and are reaping rewards with the 360. So what if the PS3 is beating it weekly - the gap is only crumbling painfully slow between it and the 360. And guess what? The 360 is actually selling better NOW than it was last year. Hmmmm ... what does that mean? And all this - with just a price cut or two?

The PS3 is a good machine, but it's no PS2, nor will it ever be. 

 



why,because is just like that,im sure that the ps3 will win over 360;not sure over the wii,its just like innivetale