What I meant when I said, "late launch" is relative to the last generation.  The problem is, many people that are assuming there will be a large jump in the PS3's sales base that on the PS2's hardware dominance and software performance.

FF, MGS and GT propelled the PS2 to astronomical heights, but only amidst a climate of success. Just as Mario, Zelda and Smash Brothers failed to propell the Gamecube to astronomical heights, amidst a climate of (relative) failure.

Last generation:

-PS2 launched first

-PS2 provided third party incentive

-PS2 was relatively inexpensive (compared to the Xbox)

-PS2 received the majority of third party support

-PS2 had a large enough userbase proportion to attain exclusives without Sony interference.

-One-horse betters Japan and EU chose PS2 

This generation:

-PS3 is relatively expensive.

-PS3 launched late.

-PS3 is the most expensive console to develop on, without the userbase to make major third party titles profitable (lets see Konami make a profit on MGS4 with neither a 360 port or Sony payout)

-GTAIV is multiplatform

-Wii is developer-friendly and received an early jump in userbase.

-Europe and Japan chose Wii.

In a climate of relative failure, the PS3's big hitters are more likely to follow the Gamecube's big hitters than the PS2's big hitters.  Just as SMG, SSBB and WiiFit are following the PS2's big hitters and causing MASSIVE hardware sales. 

 It will happen definitely, but not the games that really matter (the GTAs, FFs, Halos etc). Except maybe some jRPGs and such... And also some of those games that will be ported will also probably have a lower budget to begin with which would have made them suck if done in HD anyway....

The multiplatform games for both HD consoles will be the norm in the future (as it is now) and the developers will be better at porting these games, so they could still capture 40-60% of the market that way and avoid the Wii anyway.....

UK console sales monitor Chart Track confirmed that for the past 15 weeks the PS3 has largely kept ahead of the Xbox 360. However, a spokesman admitted that the two machines' units have been "extremely close" in some weeks.

The real winner is Nintendo. Chart Track said that sales of the Wii have been “more than double” those of the PS3 over the last 15 weeks.

And the Wii would still be “healthily” ahead of PS3 and Xbox 360 if those two machines' UK sales were combined, the spokesman said.

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/04/18/xbox_360_european_sales_double/

PS: Chart-Track is the official UK tracking agency.

EDIT: I forgot to tell you that Nintendo recently gave to the public interesting chart about hardware sales of various system for Japan, USA, UK, Germany and France. You can find them here: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=25030

EDIT2: Oh and welcome  

starcraft, yeah the tables have turned.

By the way, have you noticed this always happens to the 3rd system that has had 2 very successful older "brothers"?

Curious pattern...it´s like every 10 or so years the gears change.

 In that post i was talking about the Wii taking games from the HD consoles.....

But anyway, I think the word you are missing is "might".... "The FF's, GT's and MGS's might not do for the PS3 what they did for the PS2."

PS3 is the continuation of the PS2 dominance and it is expected to heavily outsell the XBox 360.

Yeah I know huh.

Both times it seems to have been related to a mistake in picking media formats.

Nintendo should have used the CD for the N64, while at this stage it is clear the PS3 would have sold more if it had used DVD9 and been $200 cheaper at launch. 

people who expect a massive boost for ps3 over 360 are exagerating. people who expect ps3 to leapfrog 360 in the near future will only be using the data infront of them to make sense of the matter. it looks likely. but before the holidays, if somebody predicted ps3's weekly sales to even be 'on par' with the 360's in'08, people would have thought that person is crazy. why would the ps3 suddenly be outselling the 360? it has no games, can't afford another pricecut, and is still more expensive.

any person would have been labelled a blind sony fanboy to predict that. sony let a huge HUGE advantage slip, but so did ms. they started off first, and now people are expecting it to end up last? ms had to start a year early to JUST end up last, that's not a great strategy imo, and i'm sure ms weren't looking to be in this situation. i'd hate to think what would happen if they started at the same time, or after their competition.

Let's not forget that analysts and the media tend to blow things out of proportion eg, last year when they claimed the PS3 would be the next 3DO.

The general consensus is that the 360's 2008 line-up is inferior to it's 2007 line-up, perhaps that's why people are ignoring it and hyping up the PS3's line-up instead. Also it's 2007 WW sales were less than it's 2006 WW sales, not really good news for MS, this suggests that 3rd place is inevitable for the 360. Of course, I expect it to sell a lot more than the original Xbox.

And let's not underestimate just how much a PlayStation can sell- it's the only brand in history to sell over 100 million consoles, twice in a row. Not even Nintendo have done that (Yet). People have doubted every PS console for a variety of reasons, yet their lifetime numbers always turn out to be gigantic.

So.....that's probably why people predict a massive boost for Sony and crushing defeat for MS? In a way I agree, but "massive boost" and "crushing defeat" is a bit of an exaggeration.