I'm surprised Eternia did so well it's hardly been mentioned that much.

I think a lot of Switch 2 holiday sales got displaced this year to just before the price hike.

Probably. 

For sure price hike frontloaded the weekly sales, but I can't say this happened at the expense of holiday sales, we will know in just five weeks.

Good thing Switch Sports Resort is next week followed soon by OOT since the Switch 2 really needs a boost. Early this year it looked like 5 million was possible but now it'll be hard for it to reach 4m. The Switch 1 on the other hand hits another low so its holiday sales are gonna be very mild it seems and the PS5 holds up fine compared to last year again.

Well yeah I think that's been obvious for a while. The first 12 months of Switch's lifetime are very very likely going to be it's peak 12-month sales.

S2 sold around 6 million in Japan and over 20 million globally in it's first 12 months thanks to the hype causing the global record breaking launch, Japan going crazy for the system at it's original price, and those few weeks of huge sales in Japan just before the price rise.

Now with the price raised, and will likely rise further in the future, and the record breaking launch being totally about hype for the Switch successor and not about the Switch2 itself, it's very unlikely Switch will see another set of 6m/20m 12-month period in its lifetime. I think 3.0m/15m would be a very good result for the system from here on out.

Though a Lite model could make the outlook a bit better, and way better in Japan. I could see a Lite with Pokemon/DQ/MH/AC/Splatoon releases giving S2 the ability to hit 4m in Japan in the future. More broadly, it'll be interesting to see if sales can be reignited despite the price once S2 starts getting games. So far it's definitely lacked reasons to buy the system cuz of lack of games, but OoT is kinda the first good reason to buy the system and hopefully Nintendo can get in a regular flow of big games releasing.

Probably something similar to the Switch lite: no more joycons, IR scanner or the like, smaller battery, simpler screen, but most importantly, a die shrink for the SoC. Orin-based chips like the Tegra T239 in the Switch are made in an 8nm process, reducing that to an 3nm process would both drastically shrink it's size (allowing for more of them on a wafer, and as they get paid per wafer, this makes them cheaper) and it's power consumption, improving battery life, especially on a smaller battery like a lite model would probably have.

Less memory will certainly not happen, as the games are already made with the current amount of memory in mind, so a smaller memory would risk making some, if not most games, impossible to play.

Hell, Switch 2's first 7 months might be its "peak year" globally. It was clear from the start that Nintendo was about to face serious challenges this generation, the RAM/NAND crisis just cemented that.

What I didn't see though was how badly the price hike would hurt its baseline in Japan. I still cannot fathom why it sales declined so drastically, as the console remains very cheap over there. But the pre price-hike effect may still be playing a role in this, so the baseline will hopefully recover to healthy numbers in 2027.

A Lite model isn't necessarily going to be notably cheaper, as die shrinks are no longer guaranteed to cut costs. A smaller Switch 2 with near identical specs might actually be more expensive to produce. The old rules just don't seem to apply anymore. I guess they can choose to reduce storage size, but 256GB is very small as is, and all GKC games require storage.

Thanks for sharing your opinion. 

Then imo the lite will cost like an Oled Ns1, affordable in comparison but not in general as lite Ns1 was.

By memory, my bad, I meant more the storage, not the ram (still i wasn't thinking that illuminating think you said about the limitations of ram size and game function).

Perhaps, making the lite to connect on TV this time can make it more attractive.( a daydream) 

How much do you think a Lite version could lower costs? (maybe $50-100?)

Like with no dock, maybe fused joy-cons and 1 piece of plastic shell...

I think a cooler move would be a "Switch 2 home console", that is just a tiny little box (no handheld aspect, no battery, no screen ect ect).
That thing could probably be like half the cost of a Normal Switch 2.

Like Imagine seeing a 250-300$ Switch 2 console.... sitting next to ~800$ Xbox Series X, and a ~650$ PS5, on shelves in stores.
Come Christmas / holidays next year, and bundled with like a zelda game.

It would sell big numbers.

I thought Nintendo would do the same, for the Switch 1 at some point but they never did.
It was a missed opportunity imo.

With how crazy prices are getting for hardware, its time for Nintendo to show the world, the power of a good deal (price) can beat out exceptionally strong hardware that costs a arm and a leg to own.

Like imagine next gen, with PS6 and new 1800$ xbox and there is a cheap Nintendo Switch 2 also there, the home console version.