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Slownenberg said:
Well yeah I think that's been obvious for a while. The first 12 months of Switch's lifetime are very very likely going to be it's peak 12-month sales. S2 sold around 6 million in Japan and over 20 million globally in it's first 12 months thanks to the hype causing the global record breaking launch, Japan going crazy for the system at it's original price, and those few weeks of huge sales in Japan just before the price rise. Now with the price raised, and will likely rise further in the future, and the record breaking launch being totally about hype for the Switch successor and not about the Switch2 itself, it's very unlikely Switch will see another set of 6m/20m 12-month period in its lifetime. I think 3.0m/15m would be a very good result for the system from here on out. Though a Lite model could make the outlook a bit better, and way better in Japan. I could see a Lite with Pokemon/DQ/MH/AC/Splatoon releases giving S2 the ability to hit 4m in Japan in the future. More broadly, it'll be interesting to see if sales can be reignited despite the price once S2 starts getting games. So far it's definitely lacked reasons to buy the system cuz of lack of games, but OoT is kinda the first good reason to buy the system and hopefully Nintendo can get in a regular flow of big games releasing. |
Hell, Switch 2's first 7 months might be its "peak year" globally. It was clear from the start that Nintendo was about to face serious challenges this generation, the RAM/NAND crisis just cemented that.
What I didn't see though was how badly the price hike would hurt its baseline in Japan. I still cannot fathom why it sales declined so drastically, as the console remains very cheap over there. But the pre price-hike effect may still be playing a role in this, so the baseline will hopefully recover to healthy numbers in 2027.
A Lite model isn't necessarily going to be notably cheaper, as die shrinks are no longer guaranteed to cut costs. A smaller Switch 2 with near identical specs might actually be more expensive to produce. The old rules just don't seem to apply anymore. I guess they can choose to reduce storage size, but 256GB is very small as is, and all GKC games require storage.
Last edited by Kyuu - 1 day ago
