If legs are good, and with the Switch 2 version still reportedly to come, 10m could be a possibility; 2.7m first week is a good start and word of mouth seems to be very positive.
Game budgets have grown enormously inflated, but this may be one of the cases where the game in question sales well enough to get away with it.

We should look more into revenue and less at sales to determine profitability. CDPR games sell a gazillion copies, but the budgets are very high and revenues extremely poor relative to copies sold.

The Witcher 3 sold 65 million copies in over 10 years at just $700~ million. Red Dead Redemption 2 grossed more in the opening week alone. But fortunately 007 has a word of mouth strong enough to keep it selling close to its full price for a while.

Assuming marketing and licensing fees are included in the budget, the game would need to sell about 4.5-5 million copies at $70 to break even.

You don't make a AAA licensed blockbuster with huge set pieces and expect it to sell poorly. There are not  modern examples of these games being made for much cheaper, especially not licensed ones.

Marvel Spiderman 2 was $300m to produce.

This was a calculated risk as is all games development and it's paid off brilliantly. I just think the framing of this being sold kind of blunder on IO interactive side is misjudgement on market realities 

10m is a given tbh. It'll probably reach that by the end of the year 

I actually wasn't framing this as a blunder.

While AAA budgets and dev cycles as a whole have become bloated and unsustainable, this is one case where I think the gamble will pay off due to the power of the brand and the game's glowing reception.

Doubtful. 6-7 million is more likely.

We'll see. With its day one sales I said 4m first month and 10 by the end of the year. 

At 2.7m in first week, great word of mouth, no more notable releases in June,  I think it'll be pretty close to my estimation. 6m feels way too low, I say it'll hit that by late July.

The game has very little competition until September and come holiday it will have the Switch 2 release. Similar to big family recognised IPs I think it will do well Switch. The Switch version will also reboost the other systems with coverage and comparisons.

We also have the single player expansion (not sure if this year but it will be promoted this holiday most likely) 

Going into the holiday it will remain one of bigger IPs to pick up for casual gamers & to gift. Right alongside Wolverine, GTA, FIFA, COD.

For comparison in trajectories its similar to Crimson Desert. So far James Bond has matched this pace for day 1 vs week 1, I think James bond will be more evergreen long term by comparison due to the IP familiarity amongst casual 

Crimson Desert 

• Day 1: 2 million copies sold
• Day 5: 3 million copies sold
• Day 27: 5 million copies

It isn't going to match Crimson Desert's trajectory. Crimson Desert held out super well on PC/Steam, 007 is already down to 7th place on Steam revenue charts just ahead of discounted Resident Evil 4 Remake (RE4 is selling 4-8x~ more in units at the moment).

For 007 to have a similar trajectory, it'll need to overperform on consoles. Anything is possible but I'd rather go with moderate expectations.

When talking about appealing to casuals, switch 2 release, gifting for the holidays etc for sure I'm talking about console sales. Plenty of games still lean heavily on console sales vs PC. (Hogwarts, COD, FIFA etc). James bond fits in with this.

Looking at the UK Chart Crimson Desert went from No.1 to No.5 in it's second week. James Bond however has remained at No.1 in its second week. It's an approximation but still reflective of a heavier console and mainstream leaning IMO. 

In any case I'm sure they'll update when they hit 5m etc so we'll see how front loaded it is before long 

Ghost of Yotei took about 5 years to develop and apparently only cost around $60 million. It's also a much longer game than 007 First Light.

Looking at 007 and Spider-Man 2's budgets, and EA giving FIFA the middle finger... I think licensing fees are just getting ridiculous. Naughty Dog is the joke of the decade (sorry!), Ubisoft is a mismanaged nightmare, and Santa Monica Studio is probably overspending on trivialities.

I don't think it's normal for a game of 007's scope to cost that much, and we don't even know for sure whether or not marketing and licensing are fully accounted for. Will they keep giving the IP owners a cut for every sale? We just don't know the nature of these contracts.