Y’know, with how little we know about the system, it’s tempting to say that it is waaaay too early to say anything as far as commercial success is concerned… but knowing that all exclusives will now be available day one on PC through Windows 11’s Xbox Mode, and seeing as the absolute minimum price of this system will still be higher than that of NS2—a system with a far better value proposition in both its hardware (portable + home) and software—I’d be shocked if this system moves over 10mil units. Especially if it ends up being as expensive as I suspect it to be.

Rumors are RDNA 5 with 48 gb of ram.  It will be 3x the cost of the S2.  Granted it will put the S2 to shame in terms of power, but it will be super expensive if the rumors are remotely true. 

Your average consumer cannot even afford 32gb DDR5 ram.

I truly want to believe under 10M with everything we hear and going on in the market.

But there's always enough random dedicated people you didn't expect that actually wants to believe in this so ill say 20-30M

Over $1,000?... under 10m...

Microsoft said the console will be "very premium, very high end". Because this will be functioning as a PC as well, it will have access to all of the other storefronts. This means that MS can't take a huge loss on the product because there is no guarantee of making the loss up with software sales. 

Now take the state of the world into account. The cost of RAM is exploding due to AI. Tariffs are still having an impact on the market. The 2TB Series X already costs $800 in the US. I can't see this new Xbox Helix console being anything below $1,000.

Super early as we know very little. Shouldn't sell much more than Saturn or Dreamcast unless it's under $1000.
But shoot, even if it's $1200-$1500 if it makes a killing from a dedicated fanbase on the hardware, software, subscriptions and such that could be good for Xbox.

Xbox users barely buy games, Xbox money is made on services mostly. In this case Game Pass and in game purchases of live service games. They can still make a decent degree of profit from both and sell Their hardware at a slightly loss (<50 USD) at first until they get production right and reduce it to zero 

Now, being "ultra premium" is another matter. It will depends on whether this is just PR speech or if they really want high-end PC levels of horse power 

Based on what we know so far...

I think it is justifiable to make a guess of somewhere between 0 and 1 gillion. Don't think we know enough to get any more specific than that.

Where's the 160m+ option for the faithful fans and the lolz