As far as you are right, both games don't even share the same systems, there is one big point: marketing.

It doesn't matter that both games won't have any kind of direct competition between them, GTA VI will be having a marketing monopoly, every single big media vehicle will be talking about it and that's it, that's the biggest reason pretty much every other game will try to avoid it, even if they are from different genres entirely, products need marketing, and even as Mario would be 100% fine in the long run, Nintendo games have exceptional sellig lasting power, it will be completely ignored when it releases, and there is no reason anyone would want that, marketing has a lot of power.

GTA has had no impact on Nintendo titles since it's ascension all the way back with III and VI isn't changing that First party titles move in accordance to their own rules, it wouldn't be ignored on release as Nintendo's first party titles are probably the only games with equivalent selling and marketing power we only need to look at how the whole of gaming reacts when a direct is coming to see that. It would still break 10m within the week.

The only game with equivalent selling power to GTA V, and than you can assume about VI, is Minecraft.

I don't think it'll have any meaningful impact on sales of a big Nintendo game like Mario, but it'll definitely delay them at least.

People expecting a new Mario, watching Nintendo directs and already invested in them for years will be there to mass buy it at launch, but every time you open Youtube, Twitch, Tiktok, Reddit, Discord, or any kind of general site about gaming news and even overall common news, GTA VI will be basically everything you see thrown at up, until you specifically search for something else.

The holidays in special is a period of compusive buying up things, everything in the news is directed to deals and overall marketing about buying things, and its no different with games, 50% of the consoles sales from the whole year usually happen in the last quarter of the year. That's why its so disputed to release games during that period, people are more conditioned to buy things and they do, a lot.

I once told someone here that I think GTA VI should not be releasing during holidays, even less so close to Black Friday, because not only it'll have marketing monopoly regardless from when it releases, so it could have an extended period of intense compulsive sales on release and a second wind boost during the holidays, but it'll affect a lot more other games in the the best period they have to sell.

I think it's quite bad for the industry GTA VI releases in November and its part of the reason I've always been predicting it to be delayed again, so being a 2027 game.

If Nintendo dropped 3D Mario the same day as GTAVI, I’d imagine it’d probably only benefit Nintendo. It’d be like Barbenheiner, Doom X Isabella, and SpiderMan2 X Mario Wonder— Nintendo piggy-backing off GTA with their own juggernaut would definitely get people talking about it. Plus, if you’re already planning on going to the GTAVI midnight launch, might as well pick up a copy of Mario while you’re there (if you are among the rare few who are in both the 3D Mario/GTAVI crowd).

Thats funny... The narrative before was that the software lineup for this year was mediocre and Switch2 was destined to lose some momentum.

Now a brand new 3d Mario after so many years on a platform thats way stronger than the last one and in a time that Nintendo's branding is way stronger than ever with thematic parks and a movie on the way...

All that combined with a perfect marketing campaign (Nintendo will definitely put a work on it), looks like wont be enough to have any significant impact for the mass market, because somehow GTA VI has a gravitational force that will pull all the media attention for it

Not true as you forget GTA and Minecraft are on multiple platforms which seems to be skewering your perception on selling power here, on a single platform first party titles are easily on par and every now and then even greater, GTA and Minecraft often average about 20m-30m on a platform which is what Nintendo's first party title are casually putting on the board and every now and then something like MK and AC hit 70m and 50m. Look at the numbers in the top 10 on Switch 1 only one title hasn't broken 20m and that will change this year and five of them have broken 30m and the majority of those games broke 10m quickly as well.

Nothing is delaying Nintendo's first party other than Nintendo themselves, GTAVI will have no bearing on them much like the prior games had no bearing on them.

I don't think Mario and GTA will be a Barbeheiner event at all, that was such a peculiar thing to happen that I can't see it being replicated in any way that benefits anything else other than GTA itself.

As I said, I think a game like Mario is one of the best games to survive it well, with only potential sales from outside the active Nintendo fanbase being affect for some time but eventually happening anyway, but a mainline Pokémon was an even better pick, and it was supposed to launch at that exact day based on leaks (that have been excellently reliable because of the massive Gamefreak breach) and now, after GTA VI was moved there, Pokémon is a 2027 game. It is obviously only especulation as for the reason it did happen, Pokémon is even missing its 30th anniversary this year, so I'm inclined to believe it.

I don't think I see the difference the ammount of platforms a game sells into does when the actual sales numbers is nothing like anything else, except Minecraft.

Minecraft and GTA V have had a massive gravitional force as you discribed, for over a decade, everytime you open a video streaming site both games are there between the most watched, both games are always in the best selling lists of any system they are on for over a decade. That's what matter, their reach is astronomically bigger than anything else out there, so attention is already there, big news like a new game dropping, like GTA VI will have such a massive effect that yes, everyone else will be affected.

You can obviously not agree with it, but open other forums right now or any gaming news site around the time anything about GTA VI exists to be talked about and see for yourself.

You'll see many other people talking about this very subject regarding the new Pokémon being 2027 or the potential new Mario game, and you'll see GTA VI there, even as nothing about it is actually happening right now to trigger such conversation. Why are people doing it, because they are silly? Sure, it can be that, but what does it matter? People are talking about it and that is that very power in effect, that's what matters, that's the kind of attention pulling force that game have, regardless if justified or not.

You know what else has massive gravitational force in gaming? Nintendo's first party, MKWii for example was still selling 1m around 10 years later, Wiisports cemented motion controls in gaming, BOTW had over 100% attach rate on the Switch when it released as people were buying the game in preparation for when the platform would be back in stock etc... If first party games were on other platforms they'd arguably sell more than GTA and Minecraft, MK8 in total has 80m and counting across WiiU and S1 now imagine them across 7 platforms with no new instalments like GTA and Minecraft.

You can bring up forums I'll bring up reality as the same forums often predicted how Pokemon was going to crash because GF weren't doing this or that guess how that went, the same forums said the Switch 1 was going to flop guess how that went, the same forums were up in arms over the Switch 2's pricing and MKW being 10 quid more than other games again guess how that went.

GTA and Minecraft are huge games yes but your assertion that they have any affect on Nintendo's major first paper reads like something purely formed from online bubbles like forums, the reality is the first party titles were GTA level before GTA itself found its calling, for further reference of this Mario Kart Wii launched the same time as GTAIV (literally the same month) and outsold all versions combined on just one platform.

It has nothing to do with what forums predict, it has to do with how much interest GTA is now able to gather, it's everywhere, even on conversations regarding Nintendo exclusives, as you can see. It's not the content on what people are talking about, it's the fact people are talking about it, that's marketing.

You seem to be reading only part of what is written on my posts, I've been acknowledging the power of big Nintendo games all the same, and saying even they choose to release close to GTA VI a new Mario would have strong opening sales and eventually strong legs too, it'll be 100% fine, but it will have an impact, none of those games compare to GTA currently, GTA IV has absolutely nothing to do with it, GTA V outsold GTA IV and Mario Kart Wii you are using as reference, combined, easily, that's the reality of the franchise right now.

But why would Nintendo want to be massively overshadowed in marketing? That doesn't sound like a good decision.

If you think Nintendo is immune to anything outside itself that's pretty much insane, and factually wrong as history already proved several times, if a company operates in the gaming market it has to understand it, releasing the Wii U thinking anything would work after the Wii success was a pretty telling moment to Nintendo, a current success does not guarantee it eternally. Just like Sony with the PS3 after the PS2. Blindly and quite honestly arrogantly making decisions thinking they all work the same, it's just bad.

Again, one last time, Mario will not remotely fail even if it releases at the very same day as GTA VI, it'll still be a success, specially because of Japan and how much it favors Nintendo and only Nintendo nowdays. But what do they have to gain on doing it? They'll definitely not be reaching many people eyes and ears instanly because of that, and even if a success is pretty much guaranteed regardless, still, why not choose to reach as much people as possible and having and even bigger success from the start?