3D Mario is Coming Holiday 2026! — Rumors, Leaks, Etc.

[BraLoD]

Wyrdness said:

BraLoD said:

The only game with equivalent selling power to GTA V, and than you can assume about VI, is Minecraft.

I don't think it'll have any meaningful impact on sales of a big Nintendo game like Mario, but it'll definitely delay them at least.

People expecting a new Mario, watching Nintendo directs and already invested in them for years will be there to mass buy it at launch, but every time you open Youtube, Twitch, Tiktok, Reddit, Discord, or any kind of general site about gaming news and even overall common news, GTA VI will be basically everything you see thrown at up, until you specifically search for something else.

The holidays in special is a period of compusive buying up things, everything in the news is directed to deals and overall marketing about buying things, and its no different with games, 50% of the consoles sales from the whole year usually happen in the last quarter of the year. That's why its so disputed to release games during that period, people are more conditioned to buy things and they do, a lot.

I once told someone here that I think GTA VI should not be releasing during holidays, even less so close to Black Friday, because not only it'll have marketing monopoly regardless from when it releases, so it could have an extended period of intense compulsive sales on release and a second wind boost during the holidays, but it'll affect a lot more other games in the the best period they have to sell.

I think it's quite bad for the industry GTA VI releases in November and its part of the reason I've always been predicting it to be delayed again, so being a 2027 game.

Not true as you forget GTA and Minecraft are on multiple platforms which seems to be skewering your perception on selling power here, on a single platform first party titles are easily on par and every now and then even greater, GTA and Minecraft often average about 20m-30m on a platform which is what Nintendo's first party title are casually putting on the board and every now and then something like MK and AC hit 70m and 50m. Look at the numbers in the top 10 on Switch 1 only one title hasn't broken 20m and that will change this year and five of them have broken 30m and the majority of those games broke 10m quickly as well.

Nothing is delaying Nintendo's first party other than Nintendo themselves, GTAVI will have no bearing on them much like the prior games had no bearing on them.

I don't think I see the difference the ammount of platforms a game sells into does when the actual sales numbers is nothing like anything else, except Minecraft.

Minecraft and GTA V have had a massive gravitional force as you discribed, for over a decade, everytime you open a video streaming site both games are there between the most watched, both games are always in the best selling lists of any system they are on for over a decade. That's what matter, their reach is astronomically bigger than anything else out there, so attention is already there, big news like a new game dropping, like GTA VI will have such a massive effect that yes, everyone else will be affected.

You can obviously not agree with it, but open other forums right now or any gaming news site around the time anything about GTA VI exists to be talked about and see for yourself.

You'll see many other people talking about this very subject regarding the new Pokémon being 2027 or the potential new Mario game, and you'll see GTA VI there, even as nothing about it is actually happening right now to trigger such conversation. Why are people doing it, because they are silly? Sure, it can be that, but what does it matter? People are talking about it and that is that very power in effect, that's what matters, that's the kind of attention pulling force that game have, regardless if justified or not.