I really don't think Luigi's Mansion is the type of title you can build your holiday lineup around. It's not the BIG one, it's the one BEFORE the BIG one - If that makes sense. Like it was back in 2019 when it released on Halloween in 2019, just 2 weeks before the BIG one of that year - Sword/Shield. It's not outside the realm of possibility at all to have a similar scenario where Luigi's Mansion 4 is the October title and the new 3D Mario is the November or December title; Although, I'd bet that Splatoon Raiders is going to be that "one before the BIG one" title this year.

Given how much time it's been and the fact that, as @firebust03, most of the Mario Odyssey team is absent from DK Bananza's credits. And it's very possible that once that game finished, they immediately jumped onboard the next 3D Mario game's development to help finish that game. 

And with Pokemon Winds/Waves now slated for 2027, I really don't see how that BIG one could be anything BUT 3D Mario unless, as I said, it's Smash Bros.

Ah, so it seems it wasn’t even a rumor— EDP 8 did in fact split. This is confirmed.

It only makes sense in Brasil

Mario atrás do armário é um clássico aqui, mas o pessoal deve ta boiando mesmo kkkk

Good to know, it's actually surprising they didn't have a new 3D Mario yet, later this year Odyssey will be 9 years old.

If the team is the same, or at least a good part of it, depending on when it happened it can indeed be close to release. If the split was anywhere from 2021 or earlier a new game releasing this year is very much a possibility.

For me, it depends on when WiWa releases. If they are March next year then I can still see 3D Mario not releasing until next holiday. I wonder if they are avoiding this November due to GTA VI. They didn't specify when in 2027 WiWa will release, but we'll see. Unlike ZA, I don't see us waiting a whole year for more WiWa information.

3D Mario would make the most sense to fill the holiday slot. We will know soon enough.

A new Mario makes perfect sense. Would match movie and anniversary. Mario Galaxy 3?

Still... It would be wise to "dodge" GTA VI...

The world doesnt revolve around GTA. It will be big no doubt, but we are talking about a brand new 3d Mario on a platform in ascension, with a major spec upgrade and untapped potential for Nintendo titles.

And the marketing, just like you highlighted, Its on point. It won't shy away, no matter the game that is releasing close to it

Nintendo could not care less about GTA VI.
I don't get where you guys are coming from with that.
You're talking about two totally different audiences/groups of gamers.
People who want to buy or are looking forward to a new 3D Mario or mainline Pokemon are not going to care when GTA VI comes out, and vice versa.