It's all about GTA 6.
GTA 6 make it big? PS5 wins.
GTA 6 doesn't make it? Switch 2 it is...

https://youtu.be/5GgQvBXAggI?si=dTcctvqDgR3PEnXK

this.

Would not be surprised at like 16-17m PS5 and the same or slightly more Switch 2's.

I think people underestimate GTA.

I think a lot of people here are underestimating the effect of GTA 6 on Playstation 5 sales. Besides, we have to remember that we'll have Wolverine this year, a game that will undoubtedly also help console sales.

On the other hand, when we look at Nintendo's side, we see a weak game lineup. Maybe that will change, but for now, I believe Switch 2 will compete with just "Hype" and "momentum"

In my humble opinion, Nintendo has a lot to improve in 2026; the 2025 lineup wasn't strong, and so far they haven't presented any major games for 2026. Playstation has Wolverine and GTA 6, two games that are promising great success and set to move some consoles...

If Nintendo doesn't deliver high-quality, high-profile games, the hype will die down, and so will the momentum. Because of this, PlayStation 5 might end up winning in 2026.

Edit: Normally I would say that 2026 is an easy win for Nintendo. Although I consider that they don't have a great lineup of games, they have the hype, they have the momentum. However, GTA 6 is going to be a giant, a true Titan for the PlayStation 5.

Should be the Switch 2, but you never know the PS5 is still selling well for its age. We shall see what the worlds economy looks like this year, if there are price increases, and what games get released.

I would have to give it to Switch 2, though I'm sure both will post good numbers for 2026!

Pokémon Gen 10 probably will be a big system seller for SW2 this holiday, so that'll likely push SW2 across the edge. Also I expect at least another big AAA Nintendo title to release then.

@sc94597 I agree. I feel like the other big AAA Nintendo title will be Luigi's Mansion 4. It will have been 4 years since Strikers released and the only other thing NLG has been credited with is assisting on Prime 4's development. I could also see SSBU NS2 Edition happening near the end of this year. Maybe Fortune's Weave is a Q4 (or close to it) title as well, assuming it doesn't slip to 2027. With all that, I could potentially see Switch 2 crack 10m for the holiday season. Should be at least 9m.

We just passed through January, we have trustable leaks of a next gen pokemon exclusive, which is already huge and there are still people that are not sure that Nintendo will announce anything else big for its brand new system...

Not only that, but to think that a plataform in its 6th year, getting close to a 100M userbase, having already, since its release, the definitive console version of the latest GTA (that is been receiving updates since last week) will, somehow, bring a huge and unimaginable amount of new players just for its upcoming next entry...

You guys sure love to make a fool of yourselfs

Like people have said, we just don't know much about Switch 2's first party lineup yet, not to mention what the market conditions could bring. If all goes right for both systems this year (no price increases, GTA6 and some system-selling Nintendo games all make it out) then Switch 2 will win.

While GTA6 - the game - will be massive, I think that a lot of that audience already owns a PS5 (especially after this last holiday with its great deals and fear of future price increases), whereas Switch 2 clearly has so much more room to grow its install base. But I do think GTA will be able to keep PS5 sales very respectable.