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Forums - Sales - January 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

trunkswd said:

PS5 is likely 190K or a little below that with Switch 2 around what you said. Xbox Series did better than I was expecting (70K-75K) even if sales are still bad. Switch 1 is flatlining with sales at like ~30K. Crazy Switch 1 can sell as much or nearly as much in one week in Japan as it did for an entire month in the US. 

I'm still running the numbers with Machina, so our estimates once posted might be a little different than that. There is a little bit of room depending on sales of other devices like the NEX and PC portables as those are counted in Circana's hardware totals. 

Yup if EU follows America's decline, then Japan accounted to ~50% of Switch 1 total worldwide sales which is crazy and probably never happened before to worldwide available systems



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IcaroRibeiro said:
trunkswd said:

PS5 is likely 190K or a little below that with Switch 2 around what you said. Xbox Series did better than I was expecting (70K-75K) even if sales are still bad. Switch 1 is flatlining with sales at like ~30K. Crazy Switch 1 can sell as much or nearly as much in one week in Japan as it did for an entire month in the US. 

I'm still running the numbers with Machina, so our estimates once posted might be a little different than that. There is a little bit of room depending on sales of other devices like the NEX and PC portables as those are counted in Circana's hardware totals. 

Yup if EU follows America's decline, then Japan accounted to ~50% of Switch 1 total worldwide sales which is crazy and probably never happened before to worldwide available systems

The little bit of data we have for Europe is showing a smaller % drop for NS1 there than in the US.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Yeah, I kinda saw the writing on the wall for this a while back. I think PS5 will win Feburary too or be neck and neck. Guys, the PS5 is still $399... cheaper than the Switch 2.



Looks like SW2 being stronger in Japan than SW1 but down in the west is continuing after the holidays?



Zippy6 said:

Looks like SW2 being stronger in Japan than SW1 but down in the west is continuing after the holidays?

That is how it appears right now. At least for January.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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One thing to keep in mind is that the problem Nintendo has in western markets is that third party releases pretty much have no impact on Switch 2 sales, most of PS5s sales come from people wanting to play stuff like Madden and EA sports FC and other mainstream third party games, Nintendo consoles on the other hand is fully dependant on stuff like major Mario, Smash, Zelda, Pokemon etc releases, that should mean its hard for Switch 2 to have higher baseline sales than PS5 in US/Europe, because if Nintendo hasn't released appealing games, that means for most people there is no reason to buy a Switch 2. While Sony on the other hand only needs to wait for the next EA sports game to drop to get a sales boost any particular month.



Not a great look for Nintendo and Switch 2 this month with being less than a year old and selling less than Switch 1 in its first January on the market. If Nintendo does raise the price after the fiscal year is up at the end of March, it's not going to go well.



wow, Switch 2 numbers are not looking good at all. Imho, their current games are weak, they need to do something fast.
PS5 doing some good numbers for such old system.
Xbox and Switch are dead.



Nintendo needs to pick it up a bit here. It's like they're just waiting for the Mario Galaxy movie and putting everything on hold for that, you got a new console to sell dudes, maybe try showing a Direct, it's almost March and no one has any clue as to what Nintendo's lineup for the year is supposed to be.

DK Bananza is a good game too, but probably not strong enough of a game to be a system sales driver so that's putting all the sales stress on Mario Kart basically.



The Switch 2 needs a new Animal Crossing game. I have a feeling it might be due this year unless there's been information to the contrary.