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Forums - Sales - Xbox Series sold 12m+ in 18 months according to former Xbox VP Global Expansion, Hardware.

JRPGfan on 12 January 2026
IcaroRibeiro said:

If it was overtracked by over 1 million by 2023 it's likely overtracked now by another 3 million

why would it be off by that much? doesn't this just mean its at minimum ~500k (at most like 1m) over by then? why would that add up to 3m by now?



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trunkswd on 12 January 2026
trunkswd said:

I'm discussing this with Machina. There was leaked shipment data that had Xbox Series at 4.6 million in first 5 months and 7.8 million in months 9 to 17 for a total of 12.4 million. So it is possible he is using the leaked data, which is missing 4 months worth of figures. Sales for Xbox were strong at time, so we are talking 14m+ shipped in 18 months when you add in the 4 missing months.

Another possibility is he is talking in quarterly data, which would mean this could be through March 2022. If that is the case we would have it overtracked at 13.07 million sold. He does say 12m+, so 12 million is a minimum and could be at nearly 13 million. We do have some wriggle room to adjust down, but not a ton as we have good data for US, Canada, Japan, and most of Europe. That would leave Latin America (historically a strong market for Xbox), Oceania, Asia, and MEA (Middle-East and Africa).

One thing to note is historically US data for Xbox is ~50% of worldwide sales and with Circana/NPD and our US estimates should be within a few % of accurate.

Xbox 360

  • Global: 85.73M
  • US: 42.73M
  • US % of global: 49.8%

Xbox One

  • Global: 57.96M
  • US: 29.97M
  • US % of global: 51.7%

Xbox Series X|S

  • Global: 34.10M
  • US: 17.38M
  • US % of global: 51.0%

Edit: Do expect some adjustments

I'm working on adjustments to put our estimates more inline with available CESA data, as well as lowering places with limited data.

Before adjustments:

  • 2020: 3,005,468
  • 2021: 8,071,946 (Total: 11,077,414)
  • 17 month total (Mar 2022): 13,073,264
  • 18 month total (Apr 2022): 13,563,270
  • LTD thru Nov 2025: 34,101,321

After adjustments:

  • 2020: 2,950,468
  • 2021: 7,769,246 (Total: 10,719,714)
  • 17 month total (Mar 2022): 12,700,464
  • 18 month total (Apr 2022): 13,190,470
  • LTD thru Nov 2025: 33,728,521
  • Global: 33.73M
  • US: 17.38M
  • US % of global: 51.5%

We can't go any lower in 2020 or 2021 as we know the Xbox Series X|S is the fastest selling Xbox through the end of 2021 and in June 2022. We have the Xbox Series X|S barely ahead of the Xbox One now at the end of 2021. Though we do have the Xbox Series X|S lead grow in most of 2022 before we have it falling behind at the end of the year. So that leaves a little bit of room in 2022.

Links to Microsoft saying Xbox Series X|S is fastest selling Xbox:

End of 2021: Phil Spencer: Xbox Series X|S Remains the Fastest-Selling Xbox Ever

June 2022 (Based on Microsoft's fiscal year, which ends in June): Microsoft CEO: Xbox Series X|S Remains the Fastest-Selling Xbox Console Ever

Last edited by trunkswd - on 12 January 2026

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Wman1996 on 12 January 2026

Makes me wonder if Xbox Series has sold less LTD than N64. Because if so, yikes. It's obviously outsold the original Xbox, but it might be more behind Xbox One than we thought.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

superjas on 12 January 2026

Are we really adjusting estimates on someone's online CV now?



Evilms on 12 January 2026

Xbox Series are less than 30M units.



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trunkswd on 12 January 2026

Under 30 million is not realistic. It was revealed in June 2023 the Xbox Series X|S was 21M+ (and Xbox One was ~58M). This figure is either as of March 2023 or possibly May 2023 since it was from before the end of June.

With these new adjustments we have Xbox Series X|S at 20.82M as of March 2023 and 21.52M as of May 2023. So possible we are ~180K too low if the figure is March 2023 or at most ~520K too high if it is May 2023.
Sales for Xbox Series X|S were still good through 2023 before they started falling in 2024.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

tak13 on 12 January 2026
trunkswd said:
trunkswd said:

I'm discussing this with Machina. There was leaked shipment data that had Xbox Series at 4.6 million in first 5 months and 7.8 million in months 9 to 17 for a total of 12.4 million. So it is possible he is using the leaked data, which is missing 4 months worth of figures. Sales for Xbox were strong at time, so we are talking 14m+ shipped in 18 months when you add in the 4 missing months.

Another possibility is he is talking in quarterly data, which would mean this could be through March 2022. If that is the case we would have it overtracked at 13.07 million sold. He does say 12m+, so 12 million is a minimum and could be at nearly 13 million. We do have some wriggle room to adjust down, but not a ton as we have good data for US, Canada, Japan, and most of Europe. That would leave Latin America (historically a strong market for Xbox), Oceania, Asia, and MEA (Middle-East and Africa).

One thing to note is historically US data for Xbox is ~50% of worldwide sales and with Circana/NPD and our US estimates should be within a few % of accurate.

Xbox 360

  • Global: 85.73M
  • US: 42.73M
  • US % of global: 49.8%

Xbox One

  • Global: 57.96M
  • US: 29.97M
  • US % of global: 51.7%

Xbox Series X|S

  • Global: 34.10M
  • US: 17.38M
  • US % of global: 51.0%

Edit: Do expect some adjustments

I'm working on adjustments to put our estimates more inline with available CESA data, as well as lowering places with limited data.

Before adjustments:

  • 2020: 3,005,468
  • 2021: 8,071,946 (Total: 11,077,414)
  • 17 month total (Mar 2022): 13,073,264
  • 18 month total (Apr 2022): 13,563,270
  • LTD thru Nov 2025: 34,101,321

After adjustments:

  • 2020: 2,950,468
  • 2021: 7,769,246 (Total: 10,719,714)
  • 17 month total (Mar 2022): 12,700,464
  • 18 month total (Apr 2022): 13,190,470
  • LTD thru Nov 2025: 33,728,521
  • Global: 33.73M
  • US: 17.38M
  • US % of global: 51.5%

We can't go any lower in 2020 or 2021 as we know the Xbox Series X|S is the fastest selling Xbox through the end of 2021 and in June 2022. We have the Xbox Series X|S barely ahead of the Xbox One now at the end of 2021. Though we do have the Xbox Series X|S lead grow in most of 2022 before we have it falling behind at the end of the year. So that leaves a little bit of room in 2022.

Links to Microsoft saying Xbox Series X|S is fastest selling Xbox:

End of 2021: Phil Spencer: Xbox Series X|S Remains the Fastest-Selling Xbox Ever

June 2022 (Based on Microsoft's fiscal year, which ends in June): Microsoft CEO: Xbox Series X|S Remains the Fastest-Selling Xbox Console Ever

Wow

Xbox series is that much dependent on the USA for the total sales to exceed 50m milestone.

Go Microsoft, push it! 

Last edited by tak13 - on 12 January 2026

trunkswd on 12 January 2026
tak13 said:
trunkswd said:

I'm working on adjustments to put our estimates more inline with available CESA data, as well as lowering places with limited data.

Before adjustments:

  • 2020: 3,005,468
  • 2021: 8,071,946 (Total: 11,077,414)
  • 17 month total (Mar 2022): 13,073,264
  • 18 month total (Apr 2022): 13,563,270
  • LTD thru Nov 2025: 34,101,321

After adjustments:

  • 2020: 2,950,468
  • 2021: 7,769,246 (Total: 10,719,714)
  • 17 month total (Mar 2022): 12,700,464
  • 18 month total (Apr 2022): 13,190,470
  • LTD thru Nov 2025: 33,728,521
  • Global: 33.73M
  • US: 17.38M
  • US % of global: 51.5%

We can't go any lower in 2020 or 2021 as we know the Xbox Series X|S is the fastest selling Xbox through the end of 2021 and in June 2022. We have the Xbox Series X|S barely ahead of the Xbox One now at the end of 2021. Though we do have the Xbox Series X|S lead grow in most of 2022 before we have it falling behind at the end of the year. So that leaves a little bit of room in 2022.

Links to Microsoft saying Xbox Series X|S is fastest selling Xbox:

End of 2021: Phil Spencer: Xbox Series X|S Remains the Fastest-Selling Xbox Ever

June 2022 (Based on Microsoft's fiscal year, which ends in June): Microsoft CEO: Xbox Series X|S Remains the Fastest-Selling Xbox Console Ever

Wow

Xbox series is that much dependent on the USA for the total sales to exceed 50m milestone.

Go Microsoft, push it! 

You can double US sales to get a rough idea of worldwide figures for Xbox. Mind you it would be FAR easier if Microsoft provided quarterly shipment figures like Sony and Nintendo do.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

VAMatt on 12 January 2026

I'm having trouble understanding why you are adjusting sales figures based on a very non-exact comment in someone's resume. I don't see that as usable evidence. Were you on the fence about an adjustment lower, then just needed this to push you over the edge?



Panicradio on 14 January 2026

I've always wondered if you and your team are mathematically taking into account that reported Xbox hardware revenue data includes revenue coming from sales of official Xbox accessoires, too, like headsets, controllers, storage expansions, etc.

And as far as that 21m+ shipment figure goes back in June 2023:

It could also very well be that they were simply displaying their projected total numbers up until their (fiscal) Q4 '23 already, since that presentation back then was only a few days away from Microsoft's Q4 being completed.

So it could be assumable that for THAT particular presentation back then, they themselves were rather eager to display the most freshest number up there than a number from March.

At least that's my personal opinion.