trunkswd said:
trunkswd said:
I'm discussing this with Machina. There was leaked shipment data that had Xbox Series at 4.6 million in first 5 months and 7.8 million in months 9 to 17 for a total of 12.4 million. So it is possible he is using the leaked data, which is missing 4 months worth of figures. Sales for Xbox were strong at time, so we are talking 14m+ shipped in 18 months when you add in the 4 missing months.
Another possibility is he is talking in quarterly data, which would mean this could be through March 2022. If that is the case we would have it overtracked at 13.07 million sold. He does say 12m+, so 12 million is a minimum and could be at nearly 13 million. We do have some wriggle room to adjust down, but not a ton as we have good data for US, Canada, Japan, and most of Europe. That would leave Latin America (historically a strong market for Xbox), Oceania, Asia, and MEA (Middle-East and Africa).
One thing to note is historically US data for Xbox is ~50% of worldwide sales and with Circana/NPD and our US estimates should be within a few % of accurate.
Xbox 360
- Global: 85.73M
- US: 42.73M
- US % of global: 49.8%
Xbox One
- Global: 57.96M
- US: 29.97M
- US % of global: 51.7%
Xbox Series X|S
- Global: 34.10M
- US: 17.38M
- US % of global: 51.0%
Edit: Do expect some adjustments
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I'm working on adjustments to put our estimates more inline with available CESA data, as well as lowering places with limited data.
Before adjustments:
- 2020: 3,005,468
- 2021: 8,071,946 (Total: 11,077,414)
- 17 month total (Mar 2022): 13,073,264
- 18 month total (Apr 2022): 13,563,270
- LTD thru Nov 2025: 34,101,321
After adjustments:
- 2020: 2,950,468
- 2021: 7,769,246 (Total: 10,719,714)
- 17 month total (Mar 2022): 12,700,464
- 18 month total (Apr 2022): 13,190,470
- LTD thru Nov 2025: 33,728,521
- Global: 33.73M
- US: 17.38M
- US % of global: 51.5%
We can't go any lower in 2020 or 2021 as we know the Xbox Series X|S is the fastest selling Xbox through the end of 2021 and in June 2022. We have the Xbox Series X|S barely ahead of the Xbox One now at the end of 2021. Though we do have the Xbox Series X|S lead grow in most of 2022 before we have it falling behind at the end of the year. So that leaves a little bit of room in 2022.
Links to Microsoft saying Xbox Series X|S is fastest selling Xbox:
End of 2021: Phil Spencer: Xbox Series X|S Remains the Fastest-Selling Xbox Ever
June 2022 (Based on Microsoft's fiscal year, which ends in June): Microsoft CEO: Xbox Series X|S Remains the Fastest-Selling Xbox Console Ever
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