Switch 1 had a good chance of outselling PS5 in 2026 as well. I don't see PS5 selling more than 500k in 2026. So it should be doable for Switch 1 to sell that amount.

I think the PS5 home console is destined to end it's life around the 8m mark (with probably only 6.5 actually sitting in Japan)...

That is excluding any Monster Hunter Worlds scale phenomenom occuring later in its life. Ala If Doke V comes out and actually smashed (the studio is focusing on Crimson dessert atm). I think it could genuinely fill a Yokai/Pokemon filled hole in the AAA market. 



But I think the interesting thing now is what happens next. I think Sony is going to push the portable Playstation (late 2027) ahead of the PS6, and I wonder whether that will be classed as PS5 or not... The market and developers simply are not ready for a new home console imo. If we get one it will be a rebranded "Smart" PS5 which will actually be weaker but based off the new architecture/portable but maybe with more ram. 

I think the portable will then serve as a way to really iron out what is needed from PS6 (2029) 

I'm not sure if you were referring to this.  This is launch aligned.  I've been away for a bit.

Does Japan not like GTA? Looking as GTA 5 the game sold 360k in it first week back in 2013.  What makes you so sure that GTA 6 will have no impact?  Given the series growth curve in Japan, GTA 6 should blow GTA 5 out of the water.  Wouldn't it be odd if it didn't sell any consoles?

Yes exactly this! No worries lol. I love seeing this data, your work is much appreciated. :) Maybe someday I’ll have to chime in with spreadsheets/charts of my own…

Not exactly no impact, but for example Monster Hunter is a bigger franchise in Japan than GTA, and Monster Hunter Wilds only really led the PS5 to get one week over 100k sales in Japan, as well as boosting it by a smaller amount for 2-3 weeks until reverting back to the normal low selling weekly PS5 numbers. So if GTA boost PS5 sales in Japan, it would be by lower amounts than MH Wilds did in 2025. The PS5 would also be a good deal older when GTA finally releases compared to when Wilds released, which should also lower the potential boost it can get from GTA in Japan.

Top 30: https://nintendoeverything.com/famitsu-software-sales-12-22-25-12-28-25-top-30/

1. [NS2] Mario Kart World – 94,645 / 2,668,381
2. [NSW] Pokemon Legends: Z-A – 59,469 / 1,529,823
3. [NS2] Kirby Air Riders – 47,793 / 424,837
4. [NS2] Pokemon Legends: Z-A – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition – 46,868 / 1,004,154
5. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu 2 – 32,649 / 232,554
6. [NS2] Momotaro Dentetsu 2 – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition – 30,154 / 188,535
7. [NS2] Donkey Kong Bananza – 15,258 / 435,206
8. [NSW] Minecraft – 14,985 / 4,109,192
9. [NS2] Super Mario Party Jamboree – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition + Jamboree TV – 14,808 / 126,436
10. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 13,839 / 8,311,118
11. [NSW] Super Mario Party Jamboree – 12,379 / 1,452,658
12. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 11,141 / 6,510,483
13. [NS2] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment – 10,358 / 148,033
14. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 9,709 / 5,852,920
15. [NSW] Super Mario Galaxy + Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 8,333 / 133,963
16. [NSW] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Hinokami Chronicles 2 – 7,779 / 174,051
17. [NSW] Dragon Quest 1 & 2 HD-2D Remake – 6,412 / 316,439
18. [NS2] Dragon Quest 1 & 2 HD-2D Remake – 5,736 / 135,317
19. [NSW] Nintendo Switch Sports – 5,604 / 1,678,572
20. [NSW] Tamagotchi Plaza – 5,391 / 215,619
21. [NS2] Tamagotchi Plaza – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition – 4,984 / 85,717
22. [NSW] Splatoon 3 – 4,884 / 4,501,785
23. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics – 4,758 / 1,460,975
24. [NSW] Pokemon Scarlet / Violet – 4,305 / 5,652,322
25. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival – 4,303 / 469,687
26. [NSW] Dragon Ball: Sparking Zero – 3,413 / 31,270
27. [PS5] Ghost of Yotei – 3,324 / 199,870
28. [NS2] Kirby and the Forgotten Land – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition + Star-Crossed World – 3,118 / 49,584
29. [NSW] Kirby and the Forgotten Land – 3,089 / 1,252,181
30. [NSW] The Battle Cats Unite – 3,046 / 373,906

NS - 19
NS2 - 10
PS5 - 1

I dont agree with your potential boost argument because i dont see a direct link from MH fans to GTA and.  I think the hardware boost will be around the same. Maybe mire.

Considering Monster Hunter is bigger than GTA in Japan, if Monster Hunter could barely help PS5 sales there's no way GTA will. Even with the launch of the Japan Region PS5 it still wasn't close to what the more expensive PS5 sold when MH Wilds launched. Besides at this point we all know Playstation has bigger issues in the Japanese market than just the price of their consoles.

Pulled this graphics off of ResetEra (based in Famitsu data). This is the breakdown of software sales in JP 2025. This seems like a very strong performance for NS2, given NS1’s 15-to-1 install base advantage. Any comparable comparison between predecessor and successor systems in their first year to gauge this data with?