For Switch 1 we want to close the gap each quarter between shipped and our sell-through estimates by at least a small amount. For Switch 2 that is more Machina that has been doing the estimates, but I know a lot of it is comparing how much ahead it is of the Switch 1 in the same timeframe. 

Must have been a bug when I was fixing the multi-quote. Sorry about that.

All good! :) Just making sure.

That's not true, during it's first five quarters Nintendo lumped "Other" sales in with Europe, They did retroactively go back and separate "Other" and Europe for it's Fiscal year total but not for the individual quarters. FY 16/17: 2.74m global (Europe 0.76m, 0.18m Other) and FY 17/18: 15.05m Global (3.79m Europe, 1.54m Other).

I think Switch 2 will have a much better start than Switch 1 first few years cause Nintendo is going into Switch 2 with way more momentum from the prior generation compared to Switch 1 coming straight off the disaster of the Wii U, but I think the Switch 1 will eventually do better in the later years since the people interested in Switch 2 are more likely to buy it at launch since they are more familiar with Switch 2 initially than they were about Switch 1.

And overall I still think Switch 1 will sell more due to Switch 2's higher price in this economy making it less likely for people to buy multiple for one household, and the lack of covid boost may also effect the Switch 2, doesnt have the advantage of millions having a ton of free time with nothing but video games to play and buy like the Switch 1 had.

However, it doesnt at all need to outsell Switch 1 to be a success, its already extremely difficult to top 155M+. It should still easily surpasses 100M, still expecting around 130M for Switch 2.

I dont understand why some people here continue to claim that Switch will surpass the target of 160 million untis. If we take into consideration, the decrease in the final expected shipments. On the other hand, I dont understand why Nintendo reduced the expectations. I mean with Pokemon and Metroid, 2 milion during holiday season isnt out of the question, But, we will see. Overall, great numbers. Go, Nintendo, go!

Awesome sales! Good to see! Can't wait for Odyssey to hit 30 million next update! I think Switch will have a tenth title hit 20 million by the end of its life.

I've said it before, as have others, but just imagine a true budget option for Switch 1: TV only, corded controller. It would hit 160 million no problem.

9 million is probably about right.

I did some back of the napkin math. Famitsu had the Switch 2 selling 2.1 million through the end of September. At its current level, its about 240K shipped over sold. They make up about 23% of shipments, so if you take the 240, divide it by 23%, you get about 1 million shipped globally over sold. I think its actual sales are between 8.5-9M since Japan has still been a competitive market for Switch 2 where its going down in others (as seen by it being down MoM in Sept in the US). It does seem like Nintendo pushed the Pokemon Z-A bundles into this quarter. Current management seems more interested in making the numbers look good than they did in the early Switch days. They also didn't have sell through numbers despite having it in their previous report and other reports, so my guess is the good numbers here have a lot to do with shipments. We'll have to see if this is going to be a big holiday item. Hard to say with the K-shaped economy and everything selling faster but worse (coughMonsterHunterWildscough)

The one number they will not hit is their software target. They only have an attach rate of about 2 but Switch was closer to 3.5 in Q3 2017. Not to mention that 8 million of that 20 million are bundle titles. 45 million was already going to be tough but 49 aint happening. Regardless of how the hardware dose, I think it's going to have the same issue as the PS5 where software sales aren't great. 

I don't think it can do it anymore. I'd like to see it happen, but unless the Switch can ship 2 million for the holiday quarter (like you said) I see it as unlikely. The reason I am skeptical of 2 million is that even nintendo doesn't think they can ship 2.7 million across the next 6 months with their revised forecast. 

One interesting thing is that in recent times i have compared Bananza's Amazon review count from many different countries as well as the amount of reviews from different major US retailers with Astro Bot amount of reviews, and DK Bananza is fairly decently below Astro Bot's number of reviews everywhere outside Amazon Japan. And now that we know that the actual sales between Bananza and Astro Bot is more in Bananza's favor, it means either Bananza gets fewer amount of reviews from buyers than Astro Bot, or Mat Piscatella's recent comment about digital increasing for Nintendo could mean that in western markets Bananza actually has a higher digital ratio than Astro Bot. Astro Bot did also have an unusually high physical ratio for a PS game.