Hmmm. I'm confused? Both Legends games launched outside of the holidays right?

Also wouldn't larger launch weaker legs be more likely for a holiday launch than an off-season launch?

Is there any evidence this ever happens on gaming? The part of weaker legs makes sense, but I never saw any data showing games released outside holiday windows enjoy larger debut sales, let alone games releases in January, I can't even think another AAA games released in January, most companies avoid it because people already spend their money on holidays. In fact, this is another thing that worked against Arceus compared do ZA

October 16th is a holiday launch, no? General rule of thumb for me is Q4FY = Holiday launch.

Also, to clarify, if we’re talking about a “holiday launch,” that doesn’t mean it’s launching amidst Black Friday/Christmas sales; rather, launching soon prior. That said, it’s *plausible* that a game may not sell very strong at launch if released in October versus in February due to a sect of consumers (in October) holding off for later in the holidays— whether that be for a holiday bonus, waiting for the upcoming freetime, a kid holding off until Christmas, etc. Whether this is a thing that exists? IDK I only arrived at this theory seeing how Arceus had performed against Z-A in EU.

IDK if there’s evidence. See my quote response to Zippy.

I think it simply looks less appealing than Original Legends Arceus, even more so for a Switch 2 game

It still only one week since its release, so there is time, but if there is no information about its launch sales coming in the next week it will become clear it sold less than Arceus worldwide with Japan being the exception 

Only positive aspect that could see in this game is that you can use pokemon abilities for overworld tasks other than transportation (which was weirdy removed in this game) and fighting. But even that is so poorly executed that is impossible to give a slack. The battle mechanics idea is a nice change, but still need a lot work to be considered good.

I really hope that for the Switch 2 exclusives they give a nice polishing, bc on that state, I will continue to spend a total amount of zero pennies for their games

That's why comparisons were made to past european sales. I also wouldn't even call Europe an outlier. Nintendo is not as dominant in US as they are in Japan, and games like Kirby are not in the top 3 selling games of the year. So each market has their own characteristics. 

Europe is the outlier because it will likely be the only region 40% down. Japan and US are likely to carry this game as they usually do for Pokemon. Dominance is irrelevant because again ZA is unlikely to be as down in Nintendo's top two regions unlike the outlier in Europe. Nintendo can't dominate the US like in Japan because it's a much smaller region and PS is a failure; however, you know what the US and Japan have in common unlike Europe? The US and Japan both have Nintendo platforms dominate the highest sellers in history in the regions. Nintendo has 4 of the 6 highest selling platforms in US history (DS, Switch, Wii, and GBA). Switch 2 will also easily bypass ever PS home console in history besides PS2 making it 5 of the top 7 lol. The point is, Nintendo is the biggest brand in the US and Japan. The outlier is Europe not Japan.

Edit: Forgot to mention, yes obviously each region (US and Japan) has some games that are stronger in each territory. That's why I said both regions love Nintendo. Mario and Pokemon are incredibly famous in both regions while Smash & Zelda lean US and Animal Crossing & Splatoon lean Japan. See the more gimmicky titles like Ring Fit or Nintendo Switch Sports. All the series are popular in both and considering the size of Europe, it seems to always be lacking in its support when it comes to Nintendo.

Doesn't PS have a history of selling more consoles in EU than NA or even equal? That would be a very rare sight to see on a Nintendo platforms. Some have even sold more in Japan than Europe. NA usually stands head and shoulders above Japan for Nintendo despite the incredible success in the region. Switch has already beaten PS2 in Japan and the US yet still might not pass it. Ask yourself why that is? Europe is the outlier bud.

To speculate about launch sales: Legends Z-A including digital should be >2M in Japan, >2,5M in NA, 1M-1,5M in Europe, and then maybe 1M in the rest of the world. So roughly 6-7M seems to be a likely figure for what it sold at launch WW, or could there be a chance that Legends Z-A in Japan actually outsold NA? Seems unlikely based on NA usually being the biggest region for Nintendo software sales. Europe could be a bit lower though based on retail sales in UK/Spain.

It's tricky to extrapolate sales from the limited data we have cos even on Nintendo nowadays, digital makes up a large share of sales, and some of the drop vs Arceus will be less people buying physical copies now than they did four years ago.

Interested to see where this one ends up; as a game it does look less interesting than Arceus to me personally, but then Pokémon as a whole isn't my thing so I'm not the target audience.

The Pokémon Company confirms 5.8 million copies sold in its first week:

https://nintendoeverything.com/pokemon-legends-z-a-sells-5-8-million-copies-worldwide-in-first-week/