Sony and Nintendo are each releasing a major blockbuster this October: Ghost of Yotei, and Pokémon Legends Z-A.

Sales of their predecessors were similar; Ghost of Tsushima was at 13 million as of last September, and Pokémon Legends Arceus was at 14.8 million as of March 2023. (And hasn't updated since, meaning it sold under a million in FY 24 and 25)

Which do you think well sell more lifetime between Yotei and Z-A, (including sales on both Switch 1/2 for Legends, and both PS5 and PC for Yotei) and why?

Pokemon without a doubt tbh.

It’s quite refreshing to see such a new IP already in discussion with competing against Pokémon…that said, it’ll be close. Pokémon has legs up until a new release drops, which means likely only 12m. In addition, Z-A is not a mainline entry, meaning we won’t be seeing anything >20mil. Ghost, on the other hand, will likely sell for the next decade. On top of being a growing IP, it seems possible that Ghost will win in the long-term, though short-term is easy for Pokémon.

Pokemon,duhh

Pokemon doesn't have much to compete with in terms of Pokemon games on Switch 2, so I think sales will be pretty good. And it is releasing on Switch itself.

Meanwhile GoT already released on PS5. GoY would take awhile to reach GoT levels of sales, and definitely a PC port needed.

Pokemon.

Pokémon Legends Arceus - 15m+
Ghost of Tsushima - 13m+

The original games sold similar though I'd expect Legends Z-A to outperform Arceus.

Legends Z-A should win this by at least 3m lifetime imo.

This is interesting. If it was Switch 2 only then I would say Ghost. But being on Switch 1 I say that Pokémon has a much larger base of over 150 million to work with. In the end sales will probably be fairly close to each other.

PC sales are included in the question, sorry should have made that clear.

If it were mainline Pokémon, then yeah, it would make no sense to even make a thread about it.

Legends is a spinoff series though, where the first entry sold similarly to GoT.

Considering this is a cross gen release in the case of Pokémon Z-A, it kinda has to be Pokemon in that case.

Not saying GoY won't compete or be close enough to the total sales, but being the first actual Pokemon game on the newest console is certainly a helper.

Also releasing in a busier time of the year than Arceus whilst it was in January is likely to help as well.