Metroid Prime4 is almost here. So let's predict how well it will sell up until the 31th of March 2026.
Why this date? Because it is reasonable to expect it will show up on Nintendo's Financial year recap with over 1 million sold. After that, who knows when the next update will be (perhaps never)?

The history of Metroid Prime series sales is an awkward one. The first entry was lauded as a master piece by critics and gamers alike. It went on to sell 2.84 million copies, or an attach rate of more than 10% on the GameCube.

It's sequel, released 2 years after, however only managed less than half on the same console. It sold 1.10 million sales. Huh? Why? 

The Third entry recovered a bit with 1.41 million sales. Still half of Prime1 on a console that sold over 100 million units and lauded for it's innovative way of play. Huh? Why?

Metroid Prime Remaster released on the Switch is a rare occasion that a re-release on the Switch did not manage to outsell it's initial release, like e.g. Skyward Sword, Pikmin3, Thousand Year Door, etc. Huh? Why?

There is no denying the Metroid Fanbase is Strong and Vocal, but it seems after that first try out on the GameCube, more than half the audience simply decided it was not their thing. And it did not really recover after that.

Quality surely is not the issue with every Prime game released having a 90+ Metacritic score, so what else could it be? 

I'm speculating here, but I think the typical 'Casual Nintendo buyer' isn't really into first person gaming. The days of Golden Eye are long long ago. I cannot remember any first person game doing gang buster numbers on a Nintendo console after the N64. First party or otherwise.

That leaves me a bit grounded on how much Prime4 can reasonably sell. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't expect it to beat Prime1 GameCube numbers. 

How many Copies do you think it can sell till it's first FY recap? 

1) Less than 1 million (it will not show up on Nintendo's report)
2) Between 1 and 2 million
3) Between 2 and 3 million
4) Over 3 million and immediately set a new record

I think it will sell a lot, considering we still have few games for the Switch 2 and the Switch 1 user base is huge

I'm hoping it sells enough to warrant future games. A lot of Metroid games don't exactly sell a lot. I have to imagine it needs to sell at least 3 million units, to even think about making another Prime game.

I think Metroid Prime 4 will sell 5 million. I think 4 million of those will be within the time you have mentioned. Dread, a 2D game pretty much did all 3 million in that first period as well. If they’ve managed to put in some multiplayer or add it later as DLC I think the legs will get longer and it could even hit 6 million. Obviously, if any of these scenarios happen it will be a series best. Fingers crossed!

I expect it to definitely break the 3m record by the end of March. Will probably be pretty front-loaded though.

I hope this game is great, has high score similar to Breath of the Wild to get Metroid more mainstream, but I doubt that's gonna happen. However, I do think it will be similar to Metroid Dread being heavily front-loaded and will end up being the best selling Metroid game by March 2026. Metroid Dread was 3 million, so I'm gonna guess 4 million. Just for fun I think the split will be 2.5 Million Switch 2 and 1.5 Million Switch 1. Lifetime I'll say 5-6 million.

The Prime series is pretty niche; if it can top 2 million by the end of March and 3 million lifetime that would be a decent result all things considered.

Who knows, maybe it will be a breakout hit due to the pent up demand and set a new ceiling for the series, provided it's high quality and has positive word of mouth.

Tough to predict honestly - Metroid is odd one, it has a genre named after it, yet best selling games in genre don't come from Metroid IP, whether it's 2D (Hollow Knight) or 3D (Batman: Arkham Asylum).

We still haven't been given a proper look at the game yet, so at this point in time this is a shot in the dark. Given how small the most recent trailer was, it's fair to expect a dedicated Direct in November, unless the game sucks and Nintendo knows it and just wants to get it over with.

If we don't get a dedicated Direct or a massive trailer, the writing would be at the wall. It was weird that in the last Direct this game did not have the typical recap by the host: "Let me tell you what you just saw". It felt off in a way. 

Hoping on that Direct and/or a story trailer of some kind.