Metroid Prime4 is almost here. So let's predict how well it will sell up until the 31th of March 2026.
Why this date? Because it is reasonable to expect it will show up on Nintendo's Financial year recap with over 1 million sold. After that, who knows when the next update will be (perhaps never)?
The history of Metroid Prime series sales is an awkward one. The first entry was lauded as a master piece by critics and gamers alike. It went on to sell 2.84 million copies, or an attach rate of more than 10% on the GameCube.
It's sequel, released 2 years after, however only managed less than half on the same console. It sold 1.10 million sales. Huh? Why?
The Third entry recovered a bit with 1.41 million sales. Still half of Prime1 on a console that sold over 100 million units and lauded for it's innovative way of play. Huh? Why?
Metroid Prime Remaster released on the Switch is a rare occasion that a re-release on the Switch did not manage to outsell it's initial release, like e.g. Skyward Sword, Pikmin3, Thousand Year Door, etc. Huh? Why?
There is no denying the Metroid Fanbase is Strong and Vocal, but it seems after that first try out on the GameCube, more than half the audience simply decided it was not their thing. And it did not really recover after that.
Quality surely is not the issue with every Prime game released having a 90+ Metacritic score, so what else could it be?
I'm speculating here, but I think the typical 'Casual Nintendo buyer' isn't really into first person gaming. The days of Golden Eye are long long ago. I cannot remember any first person game doing gang buster numbers on a Nintendo console after the N64. First party or otherwise.
That leaves me a bit grounded on how much Prime4 can reasonably sell. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't expect it to beat Prime1 GameCube numbers.
How many Copies do you think it can sell till it's first FY recap?
1) Less than 1 million (it will not show up on Nintendo's report)
2) Between 1 and 2 million
3) Between 2 and 3 million
4) Over 3 million and immediately set a new record
