You literally said you think it'll likely be sub 500k next year and expect the drop in 2027 to be much larger than it is this year and next year so your math just isn't adding up since that would not be 800k for those two years.

No it is not at all guaranteed for the drop next year to be bigger than this year and yes I believe that could happen if it doesn't get any more price increases cause its price getting high is clearly the biggest reason why it's dropped so much since September so expecting things to be more stable going forward as long as it doesn't increase again is completely reasonable. Expecting a Playstation console to start selling like how the 360 did in Japan is what's crazy here. If things even started approaching that bad Sony would do something to try to boost sales. This is genuinely some Switch cliff level stuff.

I mean you seem to be forgetting that PS played its biggest card for the whole generation already this year with MH Wilds. The big drop you see for PS5 this year happened even though Switch 2 wasn't on the market until June as well as the biggest PS5 game for the whole generation in MH Wilds came out this year. There is almost no way drop won't be bigger next year for PS5 in Japan. The Switch 2 will be on the market for the whole year, PS5 will be 1 year older, no game comparable to MH popularity will release in 2026 in Japan for PS5.

New releases like Splatoon Raiders and Pokemon gen 10 (And 3D Mario if it happens as well next year) will take total mindshare over PS5 in Japan next year, GTA selling potential is considerably less than those Nintendo games in the Japanese market.

You still think that the price is the PS5's biggest detriment when it isn't.  But even on that topic; what, Sony's going to drop the price of the PS5 astronomically or something and start taking losses on a system that is well past its peak already?  In a country where it clearly doesn't stand a chance against the competition at this point?  Let's be realistic here.

You somehow believe that the PS5 is just going to continue to coast regardless of the massive factors against it:  Switch 2, an unpopular form factor, and, most importantly, no more Monster Hunter-level exclusives left.  Averaging a bit above 500k for the next 3 years is completely absurd.  This isn't early 2023 when the future was still a bit cloudy.  The writing is right there on the wall.

All I can say is, prepare to be disappointed.

I guess its sales collapsing right as it got a big price increase really is one of the greatest coincidences of all time then. Seriously just look at Shadowlink's charts, it's so blatantly obvious that the price increase is by far the biggest factor in why its sales have fallen so much since September that I can't believe I have to keep pointing it out. You're just outright denying reality here so I'm not the one being unrealistic.

I don't expect a price cut at all unless things get really dire but stuff like discounts will keep helping and it's price not increasing again would obviously do a ton to keep things more stable going forward. Again its price increase last year very, very clearly had a gigantic impact on its baseline so if it retains its current price going forward there's nothing else that'll impact its sales anywhere to that degree so expecting things to be more stable in that scenario is the reasonable position. You initially said you think it has a 30% of failing to reach 8M when that is clearly guaranteed to happen and have posted figures that don't add up so you have no basis to be calling someone else's expectation with this absurd when you haven't properly thought things through.

Also if your last sentence is insinuating that I'm a Playstation fanboy or am emotionally invested in it not dying in Japan then that's just funny. You've been here for a long time so should know that I'm not like that. I'm just interested in video game sales and have no emotional stake in any piece of hardware. All I do is look at the data and facts and come up with expectations based on that. If the brand does truly die there I'm not really gonna care other than it making Famitsu sales less interesting.

Nobody is claiming that there isn't a correlation between the PS5 price increase and the drop in sales you mention. That's only natural. I'm saying that the higher price isn't the PS5's biggest issue. If it was, and if it was going to be just the PS5 vs Switch 1 going forward, then yes, people would be buying the PS5 more and more and the discounts and holiday boosts you keep bringing up would have a more profound effect along with its baseline being higher because, well, everyone already owns a Switch. Then your take would make sense. What else would there be to invigorate the market in Japan? But we all know the answer to that.

We already know that Switch 2 checks all of the boxes for what the region wants. Monster Hunter is huge in Japan yet its boost regarding PS5 hardware was very short lived, not because of the price, not because the game isn't good, but because there isn't this large group of people just feverishly waiting for discounts to snatch up the console because they all know that Switch 2 is the future in Japan. The gulf between the PS4 and the 3DS was massive, with good reason to want both and lots of software skipping the latter due to its technical limitations. That's not the case anymore with Switch 2 being so technically competent and given all of the other advantages it has, most importantly, Nintendo's games.  Remember, this is Japan.

That's what people are trying to tell you. What is left for the console that won't be on Switch 2 as well that is relevant? And once next year comes around, interest is going to increase exponentially for Switch 2. That's what you're missing here. Discounts and holiday boosts for the PS5 will be minor going forward and the system won't be at a 10-12k weekly average anymore. It doesn't have to get down to Xbox levels to fall short of what we're used to seeing Playstation sell in the end. There are a decent amount of the 9-10m strong userbase that Playstation consoles have constituted the last two generations that aren't coming back for the PS5 when Switch 2 does, and has, so much that this region cares about.

And regarding your last paragraph, no, it has nothing to do with your console preference, but your expectations, that will leave you disappointed; or let's say "surprised" then, if that's less offensive. But the idea of a 500k a year average for the next 3 years just ain't in the cards for the PS5 in Japan. However, we'll just have to wait until then to see who was correct.