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Forums - Gaming - Hilarious wrong predictions

curl-6 said:
HoloDust said:

Never said it doesn't work, just,historically for them, not as well as when they go with something new.

Not really true for Sony though, PS1=>PS2 worked, PS3=>PS4 worked, PS5 is yet to be seen, though I highly doubt it will reach PS4 numbers.

SNES/GBA sold less than their predecessors due to external factors, nothing to do with them being iterative. Those historical instances also all took place under entirely different circumstances to today.

This has gone way off topic though and is threatening to derail the thread.

Agree, let's leave it as it is...we'll see in few years - I'm inclined to pay attention to Malstrom's predictions about Nintendo hardware, I don't recall him ever been wrong since he rose to (internet) fame with Wii prediction.



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SAguy said:

Steamdeck vs Switch. Saw so many bad takes when it launched.

Yeah the whole "Steam Deck will be the Switch killer" stuff was quite silly; as it turned out, Steam Deck sales were a tiny fraction of Switch, as PC handhelds are simply not that appealing to the mass market audience.



HoloDust said:
curl-6 said:

Not setting a new record doesn't mean a console didn't work out though. By that standard every Playstation since PS2 didn't work for Sony.

Never said it doesn't work, just,historically for them, not as well as when they go with something new.

Not really true for Sony though, PS1=>PS2 worked, PS3=>PS4 worked, PS5 is yet to be seen, though I highly doubt it will reach PS4 numbers.

PS2 => PS3 went rather poorly for Sony.



curl-6 said:
SAguy said:

Steamdeck vs Switch. Saw so many bad takes when it launched.

Yeah the whole "Steam Deck will be the Switch killer" stuff was quite silly; as it turned out, Steam Deck sales were a tiny fraction of Switch, as PC handhelds are simply not that appealing to the mass market audience.

The Steam Deck is basically a hobby project for Valve. They've also been pretty quiet on sales numbers. If Steam Deck were selling in numbers comparable to Switch, Game Boy, or even the Vita, Gabe Newell would be screaming it from his rooftop. And Steam Deck makes up something like 66 percent of the handheld PC market from what I've read. 

I own a Deck, and I've turned it into a decent retro machine, mostly for computer platforms that have fallen into obscurity, like the Atari 8-bit line, which I had when I was a kid, as well as a few RPG gems like Vay. For something like Cyberpunk, it doesn't really cut it, and I've heard enough good things about Cyberpunk for Switch 2 that I will probably pick it up.



Atari Lynx will kill Game Boy

Game Gear will kill Game Boy

Insert name here will kill Game Boy in the 90s

N-Gage Game Boy Killer in 2003, as the media dubbed it.

PSP will kill DS

Vita will kill 3DS

Steam Deck will kill Switch

How are people this fucking stupid still? The worst part is both the makers of Nintendo's competitors and the people themselves use the same tactic and argument. More powerful. You just do not beat Nintendo in handhelds. No one has. Nintendo is the only console maker to be undefeated in one particular market. Even Sony lost to the Wii in consoles. Nintendo handhelds? Never lost. Maybe someday they will but if history is anything to go on. It won't be the same old approach of making a competitor more powerful. Still unlikley anyone will as no one in this industry has IPs collectively as powerful as Nintendo.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

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LegitHyperbole said:

Can we remake this thread but we all make predictions and look back on them in time to see if they become Hilariously wrong or not. Many will laugh but I predict the Switch 2 to be a Wii U sort of deal, not as bad, Nintendo will make their money and they still have 150+ million switches to sell games on. They aren't loosing much in this as they can still sell Switch 1s cause the Switch 2 is simply a PRO console for all intents, they have designed it so they can't fail even if it fails despite the "2" in the name. I predict less than 40 million LT, I wanna say 30 million but I'll be cut it down the middle at go 35 million. It'll sell right out the gate like the Wii U and get over 20 million fairly fast but given all the conditions It'll slow and then It'll slow to a crawl. Parent will not buy this thing, Kids will still be on Switch 1. We will not see hardware price reduction in the lifetime of this system or at least the vast majority of it, we'll be lucky if the price does not go up and it just might. That said, Switches will still sell.

If Switch 2 is a pro console then is Xbox series and PS5 pro consoles as well? 



我是广州人

SanAndreasX said:
HoloDust said:

Never said it doesn't work, just,historically for them, not as well as when they go with something new.

Not really true for Sony though, PS1=>PS2 worked, PS3=>PS4 worked, PS5 is yet to be seen, though I highly doubt it will reach PS4 numbers.

PS2 => PS3 went rather poorly for Sony.

Indeed it did - mostly due to their own fault. As much as arrogant Sony can be at times, I don't expect them to repeat such mistake again.



SanAndreasX said:
HoloDust said:

Never said it doesn't work, just,historically for them, not as well as when they go with something new.

Not really true for Sony though, PS1=>PS2 worked, PS3=>PS4 worked, PS5 is yet to be seen, though I highly doubt it will reach PS4 numbers.

PS2 => PS3 went rather poorly for Sony.

PSP to Vita also went disastrously.

I remember plenty of folks predicting Vita would take the fight to 3DS, only for the result to be basically atom bomb vs coughing baby.

https://mynintendonews.com/2011/07/02/nintendo-3ds-pachter-believes-playstation-vita-will-rob-nintendos-market-share/

https://www.vg247.com/analysts-nintendo-really-feel-the-heat-from-vita

SanAndreasX said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah the whole "Steam Deck will be the Switch killer" stuff was quite silly; as it turned out, Steam Deck sales were a tiny fraction of Switch, as PC handhelds are simply not that appealing to the mass market audience.

The Steam Deck is basically a hobby project for Valve. They've also been pretty quiet on sales numbers. If Steam Deck were selling in numbers comparable to Switch, Game Boy, or even the Vita, Gabe Newell would be screaming it from his rooftop. And Steam Deck makes up something like 66 percent of the handheld PC market from what I've read. 

I own a Deck, and I've turned it into a decent retro machine, mostly for computer platforms that have fallen into obscurity, like the Atari 8-bit line, which I had when I was a kid, as well as a few RPG gems like Vay. For something like Cyberpunk, it doesn't really cut it, and I've heard enough good things about Cyberpunk for Switch 2 that I will probably pick it up.

Steam Deck has apparently sold approximately 4 million as of this February, so after three years on the market:

https://gamerant.com/steam-deck-ps-vita-sales-comparison/

Leynos said:

Atari Lynx will kill Game Boy

Game Gear will kill Game Boy

Insert name here will kill Game Boy in the 90s

N-Gage Game Boy Killer in 2003, as the media dubbed it.

PSP will kill DS

Vita will kill 3DS

Steam Deck will kill Switch

How are people this fucking stupid still? The worst part is both the makers of Nintendo's competitors and the people themselves use the same tactic and argument. More powerful. You just do not beat Nintendo in handhelds. No one has. Nintendo is the only console maker to be undefeated in one particular market. Even Sony lost to the Wii in consoles. Nintendo handhelds? Never lost. Maybe someday they will but if history is anything to go on. It won't be the same old approach of making a competitor more powerful. Still unlikley anyone will as no one in this industry has IPs collectively as powerful as Nintendo.

Yeah the amount of times over the last four decades that I've heard that one "x handheld will kill Nintendo cos it's got better graphics" is hilarious.

No amount of power alone is enough to outweigh the combined force of Pokémon, Animal Crossing, Mario, Zelda, etc.

The only one that managed to put up a real fight was the PSP, with franchises like GTA, Monster Hunter, Gran Turismo, God of War, etc, and even then it got outsold almost 2:1 by the DS.



Ashadelo said:
LegitHyperbole said:

Can we remake this thread but we all make predictions and look back on them in time to see if they become Hilariously wrong or not. Many will laugh but I predict the Switch 2 to be a Wii U sort of deal, not as bad, Nintendo will make their money and they still have 150+ million switches to sell games on. They aren't loosing much in this as they can still sell Switch 1s cause the Switch 2 is simply a PRO console for all intents, they have designed it so they can't fail even if it fails despite the "2" in the name. I predict less than 40 million LT, I wanna say 30 million but I'll be cut it down the middle at go 35 million. It'll sell right out the gate like the Wii U and get over 20 million fairly fast but given all the conditions It'll slow and then It'll slow to a crawl. Parent will not buy this thing, Kids will still be on Switch 1. We will not see hardware price reduction in the lifetime of this system or at least the vast majority of it, we'll be lucky if the price does not go up and it just might. That said, Switches will still sell.

If Switch 2 is a pro console then is Xbox series and PS5 pro consoles as well? 

Pretty much. Kojima has said as much himself. Sadly they are, they are just continuations of the the PS4 PRO and X1X. Only difference is they have exclusive games and the controllers are different. I was gonna make a thread on this but it'll ruffle feathers.  The age of true successors of over, now it's just slight improvments. When I got a PS5 my first thought was, oh it's a better, upgraded PS4 PRO, doesn't matter about the power cause devs can't make that work. If Kojima and Co can not find the juice in the machine and calls it basically the same machine as a base ps4 then yurr, it's not a gen leap. 



LegitHyperbole said:
Ashadelo said:

If Switch 2 is a pro console then is Xbox series and PS5 pro consoles as well? 

Pretty much. Kojima has said as much himself. Sadly they are, they are just continuations of the the PS4 PRO and X1X. Only difference is they have exclusive games and the controllers are different. I was gonna make a thread on this but it'll ruffle feathers.  The age of true successors of over, now it's just slight improvments. When I got a PS5 my first thought was, oh it's a better, upgraded PS4 PRO, doesn't matter about the power cause devs can't make that work. If Kojima and Co can not find the juice in the machine and calls it basically the same machine as a base ps4 then yurr, it's not a gen leap. 

Switch to Switch 2 is a lot more than just a "slight improvement"

Last edited by curl-6 - on 02 June 2025