The $80 price is going to hurt it, and I dont think the Switch 2 will sell as well as the first one.

I'm going to be very conservative and say 30-40m.

My opinion is something around 40 million. The reasons: Switch 2 is getting a lot of backlash due to the high prices, so it will probably hurt MKW initial sales. However, it's one of the primary options for those getting the console, specially with the bundle. I think 40 million is a safe bet, maybe 45 million.

About the Switch 2, we could be seeing another Playstation 3 situation, where people will take their time to upgrade, but at least a bit of damage is already done. So I don't expect Mario Kart World to outsell or sell as much as Mario Kart 8.

If the bundle counts, I can see the game reaching around the 50 million mark. Mario Kart is a system seller franchise for Nintendo. Even with the backlash on the pricing, everyone from the hardcore to casual audience knows Mario Kart now after MK8D sold nearly 70 million copies, which will still work greatly in the games favor.

But I doubt it'll reach the highs of MK8D because of the pricing of both Switch 2 and the game itself. Will still sell massively, just not in the same numbers as the previous release.

It’ll probably be sold as a pack-in for around 50% of all systems. (Assuming they do keep the pack-in longer than Holiday 2025…) So, I’d say somewhere around 55-70mil?

Bundles count, as they did for MK8 Deluxe.

I'm expecting a similar or just slightly lower attach rate than MK8 and a somewhat lower sales of the Switch 2 compared to Switch, so my guess is in the 40-50M range.

Meanwhile, if Nintendo continues to produce the cartridges for the OG Switch, I expect MK8DX to sell another 10M, mostly to Switch 2 owners, bringing it close to the Wii Sports total

This poll is messed up, because the lowest choice is under 30 million.  6 out of 8 Mario Karts have sold under 30 million.  If you count the Wii U and Switch SKU's of Mario Kart 8 as separate releases, then 7 out of 9 Mario Karts have sold under 30 million.  This poll is really presumptuous in making under 30 million the throwaway option.

It gets a bundle from the get go, a thing MK8D didn't get back in the day. The difference in price from the standalone game is a good indication that the majority of early adopters will be buying the bundle instead of waiting to get the game later (I will, and I'm not a huge MK fan - played MK8 back on the WiiU and never bothered to play it again). At this point I say the Switch 2 is an easy 100-120 million for hardware sales, so the attach rate should be around 50% or larger. Thus I went for 50-60.

Those other Mario Karts released when the series was nowhere near as huge and popular as it is now.

Coming off MK8D selling 67 million (probably more like 75 million by the time it stops selling, if not 80) options for "under 20" or "under 10" just seemed highly unlikely and probably just troll bait.

So far, only like 5% of votes are for under 30, so it seems lower options weren't needed.

False.  Mario Kart Wii sold 37M and then the Wii U SKU sold 8M.  It's popularity on the Wii didn't stop it from selling poorly on the Wii U.  Mario Kart 7 on the 3DS also sold less than Mario Kart DS.

Mario Kart sales very a lot.  Your presumption that it will sell over 30 million seems to be based on the last data point.  It might sell like that again or it might not.  It's not trolling to give options based on other past data points.