Well, in 4 days, Nintendo just eclipsed 4 months of PS5 sales. So it’s not just looking like a Nintendo win, but it might not even be close.

It's now probable that my "north of 5m by June 30th" prediction for Switch 2 might be correct after all. If that's the case, then the PS5 and Switch 2 will likely be about even for the first half of the year. Of course, demand for Switch 2 could slow in the coming months, Nintendo could have supply issues - or both. But I'd say that the odds-on favorite to win this competition at this point is Switch 2. This thread will certainly be an interesting watch all the way to the end.

The Nintendo Switch 2 may have already passed the PS5 for the year. Stock supply will be the determining factor for the end year results. As far as the holidays are concerned, Switch 2 will be hottest ticket item. The PS5 has been out long enough to have lost most of its sizzle.

We also need some more votes to break this tie. 

I added another vote for S2, and it was 56 x 53 at the time I did.

It's funny just how sure many people were early on in this thread that the PS5 would have this competition in the bag, myself included... when we thought GTA6 was releasing this year.

However, Nintendo's fiscal estimate of 15m continued the majority thinking that there just couldn't be enough Switch 2s to ship the amount needed to topple the PS5 by the end of the calendar year, but as Rol pointed out, Nintendo likely based this conservative prediction on ensuring investors that Switch 2 would have at least enough to best the original Switch's year one performance.  Then came Sony's report of 2.8m PS5's for calendar Q1, giving added weight to the idea that the two systems could be about even after factoring in PS5's Q2.  Still, some believed that there was just no way Switch would have a strong enough launch for that.

The final straw, and biggest eye-opener, came when Nintendo announced the 3.5m figure for the first four days, and that it's quite likely that Nintendo did ship enough Switch 2s by the end of June to nullify any lead that the PS5 would have had for the first half of the year.  And with Switch 2 selling out steadily in the US and so swiftly in Japan, it's looking probable that it will indeed be Nintendo being able to keep up with supply that will decide this.

Nintendo's supply of Switch 2 and the tariffs uncertainty were the biggest challenges in my opinion. Once Nintendo showed us they had plenty of supply and has been able to dodge the tariff issues via raising the price on the accessories. This battle became clear it wasn't going to be close because GTA 6 was never realistically making it.

Switch 2 could be flirting with over 18 million by December 31st, 2025. That is just wild! ~6 million opening quarter (June 30th), ~ 4 million Q2 (September 30th), and ~8 million Q3. Has any platform sold over 20 million in its first 4 quarters? I think Wii came very close? Crazy momentum right now and I'm not seeing time to slow down.

Now something fun to speculate, will Switch 2 also sell over 150 million? So far the momentum is pretty absurd, we have massive launch momentum, followed by Christmas season momentum with Pokemon ZA as the tentpole release, and this is followed by Mario movie synergy in April 2026. I imagine Nintendo has a tentpole release for early 2026 (fingers crossed for Super Mario World timed with the movie also named Super Mario World). After that would be a new Pokenon Gen X for holiday 2026 for the 30th anniversary. We would still have Smash, AC, 3D Zelda, and 2D Mario remaining as tentpole releases from Nintendo along with the 3D Pokemon remakes/major spinoffs. A Monster Hunter Rise successor would fill another hole for tentpole releases and dont let Nintendo pull a rabbit out their hat ala Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Ring Fit Adventure, or Nintendo Switch Sports. We also have revisions (Switch 2 Lite and Switch 2 Pro/Oled). The improved 3rd party support and Nintendo's smaller games will help sustain momentum between the tentpole releases. I think Nintendo actually can sustain their 150+ million audience.

And don't forget the next Dragon Quest game, its launch in Japan will also skyrocket sales for Switch 2 there.

That aged badly

To be fair the Switch 2 needed an absolutely record shattering first 7 months to have any shot so I think the reasoning was fine. Due to the circumstances the PS5 was a heavy favourite though unlikely events do happen occasionally. I never fully discounted the possibility while others said there was no chance the Switch 2 does it so there's worse aging posts in here. Hell Rol basically said the same sort of thing I did back in May as well.