Nintendo's supply of Switch 2 and the tariffs uncertainty were the biggest challenges in my opinion. Once Nintendo showed us they had plenty of supply and has been able to dodge the tariff issues via raising the price on the accessories. This battle became clear it wasn't going to be close because GTA 6 was never realistically making it.
Switch 2 could be flirting with over 18 million by December 31st, 2025. That is just wild! ~6 million opening quarter (June 30th), ~ 4 million Q2 (September 30th), and ~8 million Q3. Has any platform sold over 20 million in its first 4 quarters? I think Wii came very close? Crazy momentum right now and I'm not seeing time to slow down.
Now something fun to speculate, will Switch 2 also sell over 150 million? So far the momentum is pretty absurd, we have massive launch momentum, followed by Christmas season momentum with Pokemon ZA as the tentpole release, and this is followed by Mario movie synergy in April 2026. I imagine Nintendo has a tentpole release for early 2026 (fingers crossed for Super Mario World timed with the movie also named Super Mario World). After that would be a new Pokenon Gen X for holiday 2026 for the 30th anniversary. We would still have Smash, AC, 3D Zelda, and 2D Mario remaining as tentpole releases from Nintendo along with the 3D Pokemon remakes/major spinoffs. A Monster Hunter Rise successor would fill another hole for tentpole releases and dont let Nintendo pull a rabbit out their hat ala Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Ring Fit Adventure, or Nintendo Switch Sports. We also have revisions (Switch 2 Lite and Switch 2 Pro/Oled). The improved 3rd party support and Nintendo's smaller games will help sustain momentum between the tentpole releases. I think Nintendo actually can sustain their 150+ million audience.
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