No I meant just at launch and over the first couple of months it should be tracking ahead. Over the course of the gen Switch 2 should fall behind because I don't think we should expect a company to pull off having two back to back 150+ sellers. I agree it's always possible but very unlikely. Tough act to follow.

Correct. Also, people are really discounting the fact that the Switch Lite was $199.99. Without it, that system doesn't even beat out the DS.

I think it's going to be ludicrously record breakingly high:

I mean the two platforms it's aiming to beat (PS2 $ DS) were both cheaper than Switch Lite at some point. So if those sales count then Switch Lite should count.

Also, you can't just change history without inviting an alternative scenario. If Switch Lite never existed then Nintendo may do something different to boost Switch hardware sales. Do they introduce an Oled model sooner? Or maybe a pro model? Do they just cut the price of Switch instead?

Yeah that’s one of the dumber arguments I’ve seen on this site. By that logic, let’s also say DS & PS2 wouldn’t have sold as much without DS Lite & PS2 Slim.

Confirmation bias makes for particularly dumb arguments. And I'm not even looking down on anyone. At one point or another, we're all guilty of making a dumb argument - and for the majority of us, it's far from just one. But where a person making dumb arguments avoids the status of stupidity is when they recognize their error, and don't let confirmation bias keep them captured.

In other words: don't worry about being dumb, don't worry about being pointed out as being dumb. By all means, risk being dumb.
Instead, worry about being stupid, and avoid it when you can by changing course when you find out you've said something dumb.

So guys, after the report that the Switch 2 got 2.2 Million applications to get on day 1 in Japan (for comparison, Switch 1 sold 330k it's first weekend IN Japan and 2.9M WORLDWIDE overall it's first MONTH), while also having reports from other retailers in Europe saying pre orders are at historic levels, does this change your predictions for overall Switch sales?

To be honest, I feel like a good portion of this thread is heavily underestimating the Switch 2's sales potential, it doesn't have much of any reason to do noticeably worse than Switch 1. A common reason I've been seeing is that "Switch 2's concept won't be as impressive as it was when it first came out in 2017 and people will just stick to the Switch 1", but that logic didn't stop MORE consumers into upgraded from a PS1 to PS2 even tho both consoles had no significant differences outside of performance.

The only times we really see direct sequels of consoles drop off in sales is when there's increased competition or the console screws up badly when it comes to price. The SNES sales dropped primarily due to the emergence of the Sega Genesis, 3DS sales dropped due to smartphone competition, PS3 sales dropped largely due to price and more competition from Xbox. The Switch 2 won't be in any of those situations, there's no competition for it right now.

I actually think Switch 2 will exceed 150 Million just like Switch 1.

As badly as SNY screwed up with PS3, the hardcore still bought it asap. Strong (enough) early sales aren't enough to guarantee consistency.

PS2 was also seen as cheap. Really cheap considering it was capable of DVD playback.

Applications for a preorder lottery and actual sales are not comparable lol.

The Switch sold 330k because that's how much stock they had, we'll see how many the Switch 2 can sell in Japan in its first week. (It will be a lot less than 2.2m).

These two figures shouldn't be compared.

I expect Switch 2 to sell everything they ship in its first year and outpace the Switch 1. Lifetime I'm quite happy with a rough 110-120m prediction.